Mak's Monday Mechanics

What’s up guys.  Apologies for the absence, out of town for the weekend.  I should be in Toronto all week and thus consistent with analysis this week.  Large slate, let’s get to it.  As always fellas, the best of luck on you wagers tonight.  Peace - - - MAK

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ NEW JERSEY NETS

PICK: CAVALIERS + 9.0 (-115) - - - 3.5 UNITS

I cringe as I place units from my bankroll on the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I thought about making this a contingency bet based on the status of Ramon Sessions, however this bet is a go if he plays or doesn’t dress.  I would prefer if Sessions plays.  Let’s put it into perspective.  The Cavs will probably be the worst team in the NBA at the end of the season.  For sure the worst in the East.  Talent wise they do not have what some of the other lower-tier teams have.  They don’t have a lot of hope for the future either, neither one of their young guns shows a massive amount of upside or potential.  They don’t have a lot of trade bait, nor do they have lottery draft picks (except their own) to build from.  The organization is in trouble...but let me ask you all a question, do you think they are as bad as last year’s Nets?  I don’t.  I think they will manage to surpass the total wins of New Jersey last season, and that begs the question, what games can Cleveland actually win?  This is a situation, a very rare situation in which Cleveland has a chance to win on the road.  Now I would never take the moneyline option, but the spread has value.  The Cavs can finally have a chance to not be beaten by more than double digits.  The Cavs boasted one of their best performances of the season against Chicago, only to be dominated in the 2nd half and lose the game by double digits.  They did initiate a nice rotation.  Sessions was injured early and Boobie is still finding his stroke.  Antawn is taking less outside shots and attacking the basket frequently.  Eyenga is a good young player with some potential.  J.J Hickson has an atrocious offensive post game, he went 5-19 last game but he is their lone 5 man and he is getting on the glass as Byron Scott has instructed.  In his last 7 games he has some impressive rebounding performances including 20, 17, 15 and 14 rebound nights.  I like the rotation used vs Chicago.  Moon and Gee out of the rotation.  If Sessions plays it should stay the same.  Ryan Hollins, Samardo Samuels and Manny Harris will all get time off the bench.  Joey Graham always plays well vs his brother and vice versa.  I have been very impressed with New Jersey’s bench.  In particular Farmer, Hump and Sasha.  All playing exceptional ball right now.  Last time these two teams met, New Jersey played a perfect game in my mind.  Hump had 18 boards, Morrow was outstanding going 8-12 with 5 treys, Farmer was clutch off the bench and Harris had a solid game...on the flip side Cavs were not good at all, Boobie went 2-10 and the Cavs went 3-12 from behind the arc....so why did the game come down to free throws?  Jersey with a narrow defeat despite dominating.  I think the Cavs matchup well here and could even break their streak and actually win a game....or Mak has been drinking too much Chronic Ice Tea’s and doesn’t realize that the Cavs have only won one game in their last 27 tries....they could easily lose this by double digits, but my gut says they compete tonight.

PHOENIX SUNS @ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

PICK: 76ERS MONEYLINE (-160) - - - 3.5 UNITS

I really like to toot my own horn when it comes to season previews and predictions I got right....and boy a boy did Mak get some right....I also got some terribly wrong.  I foresaw a terrible home record for the 76ers at the end of the season, I even thought they may contend for worst home record in the East...incorrect.  In fact, this Philly team has dominated in the city of brotherly love.  In their last 15 home games they have only lost 3.  Two of those losses to powerhouses Boston and the Lakers were acceptable.  Even their loss at home to Indy was acceptable considering Collison decided to go off for career highs in his best game as a pro, it was the first game Iggy came back from injury and the rotation was discombobulated.  Right now Philly is clicking correctly.  They are poised and very confident.  Each player is comfortable with their roles.  All those NBA 2K9 fans, the player roles for Philly are all role players.  No stars, no prospects, not even starters.  Just role players.  What I mean by that is each and every person has a purpose on this team.  Hawes is to be the big man, Jrue is to be the floor general, Elton and Iggy to be leaders on the team, Jodie; outside thread.  Lou Williams is the sixth man, he is THE MOST UNDERATED 2nd unit scorer in the NBA.  Young changes the dynamic of NBA games, which I will explain shortly.  Nocioni will be back tonight and should have another big game vs the Suns and Evan Turner who also scorched the Suns the last time they met should have a good game.  The best bench in basketball should score with ease against a soft defense.  Young and Brand change the dynamic of this Philly team.  Not many realize that Philly goes small ball about 65% of the game.  They place Elton at the 5 and go with Young at the 4.  This really causes a lot of matchup problems for many teams.  Tonight Frye is the key piece, after being an intricate part of the Suns recent success, he had a horrific game vs Detroit.  Channing has always been the type of player to lose confidence very quickly.  He went 2-12 from 3 point range, his 3 point shot was a key contributor to the Suns win streak prior to Detroit.  Now with his confidence deflated, look for that shot to be deflated as well.  Gortat is playing great and will impact off the bench tonight.  If Nash and Grant can work their magic, this bet could be dead in the water early.  But I suspect Philly’s home dominance to continue as the Suns play their 3rd road game in 4 nights and final game of an already successful five game road-trip.  Cheezesteaks anyone?

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES @ TORONTO RAPTORS

PICK: NO PLAY

I don’t see how the Raps contain the paint here.  The only reason I am not betting on this game is due to the fact that I am attending it.  I have outstanding seats and I am really not interested in betting against my boys.  Though, I really do not see how they win this game.  The only way I will bet on this game is if Jose does not suit up.  I do not trust Bayless with running the team.  He has flashes of brilliance, but he is a cocky, arrogant little boy who turns the ball over and makes bad decisions, I can now see why he has been traded twice in his short career.  If Joey Dorsey does not suit up the Raps have no chance to contain the paint.  Zach will devour every loose ball and miss at the rim.  Marc Gasol coming off his best game of the season, maybe even his career should have full confidence and take it to Bargnani in the post.  If Marc finds his offense early and gets Raptor bigs into foul trouble, this one could be over early.  Even Darell Arthur poses a difficult matchup for Ed Davis.  However, Raps backers have no fear...Julian Wright is here.  Amazing defensive player, very fundamental and has all the intangibles to be a great defensive player in this league.  Has good vision and ball control as well.  He will lock Rudy down.  If Jose does not dress....Mak goes against his boys.....I guess. :(

DETROIT PISTONS @ ORLANDO MAGIC

PICK: NO PLAY

No value in the line in my honest opinion.  I have Orlando winning this by 10 points.  Could go either way in terms of spread but I don’t see anyway Orlando loses this game.  An excellent teaser opportunity, moneyline parlay is not worth it at the odds.  Teasing it 6-7 points with Chicago seems like an intelligent gamble for those that play teasers.  Dwight Howard props are hitting at a high rate.  He is dominating against opponents.  With a short 8 man rotation, Dwight is seeing a lot of time and is staying out of foul trouble.  No other real opportunities I see in this matchup.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS @ NEW YORK KNICKS

PICK: NO PLAY

Been burned by the Knicks a few times but I still love their team.  The rotation and the offensive system.  Love it all.  Their starting 5 is as solid as it gets when Wilson and Galo are in.  Felton is really struggling right now, his confidence is at a season low and if it continue the Knicks could struggle.  Felton is a warrior and should battle through this cold streak.  Amare may have a little trouble getting past McGee and Andre.  Washington off a confidence building win should compete at MSG tonight.  Still waiting on Wall to find that offensive groove.  He is still very young and very immature, once this kid matures and grows into the NBA game, he could be a sight to behold.  No value in this game at all.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS @ CHICAGO BULLS

PICK: NO PLAY

I see Chicago winning this game.  Period.  Don’t like the spread, I just see them winning.  For those who like playing 1st half bets (I don’t) I think – 3.5 for the Bulls is money.  Coach Thib has been very upset at their recent lack of focus to start a game.  They always seem to come out slow and really put it on as a game progresses.  Chicago is quietly turning into one of the best half-court defensive teams in the league.  It took a while for Thib’s system to take affect but it has.  They defend screen and rolls to perfection, they take away the gaps in the passing lanes and really prevent ball movement from side to side.  Chicago’s bench is improving game by game.  Korver has found an offensive groove, a much needed scoring option off the bench.  Brewer is their stopper off the bench and Watson is doing well.  Omer Asik is providing good big man minutes but it is Kurt Thomas who has exceeded all expectations.  The last time he went up against Bogut he really frustrated him, didn’t allow him to get deep post position.  Deng and Rose should be stellar tonight.  Bucks can defend but they lack the scoring punch.  Delfino is still rusty, Salmons is questionable.  I do however love Corey back in the starting 5.  Chicago is too good at home to lose this one.  No value on spread.

HOUSTON ROCKETS @ MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

PICK: ROCKETS – 2.0 (-115) - - - 3.5 UNITS

Oh me oh my...going against “my” pups.  My pups have been good to me this year.  #1 overall in terms of profit for me, have yet to lose a game going against them.  This might be my first.  They are more than capable of beating this Houston team at home.  Nevertheless, Houston off a loss matches up with the Tims to perfection.  I don’t see much of a revenge factor.  Houston dismantled this team earlier in the season but rotations will be different tonight.  Lowry is quicker and stronger than Luke and should bulldoze him on offense.  Kevin Martin will actually be locked down by Brewer tonight, but due to Kevin’s atrocious outing from the field last game, look for him to attack the basket and get to the free throw line for easy points.  Beasley is my pick for most improved player of the year.  He is getting no acknowledgment.  He was written off as misfit, a flop of a 2nd overall pick.  Raptors say they don’t want him (for nothing), he gets shipped to Minny.  He is having an outstanding year, but Shane Battier is an outstanding defender, the perfect mould of specimen to guard Big Beas.  Shane will prevent him from going off.  Scola will not be able to handle Love, but Hayes may actually stand a chance to contain him.  If Love dominated the glass, look for Hayes to switch on him and Scola to guard Darco.  The bench is the key to this game.  In sections you have Brooks, Lee and Bud vs Webster, Ellington and Johnson.  The edge to Houston there in my opinion.  Then you have Tolliver and Nikola vs Hill and Patterson, I will actually give it to Hill and Patrick as they have been playing some excellent ball and have consistent rotation minutes.  I hate going against “my” Tims but tonight should be all bark and no bite.  Houston silences the howl in Minneapolis.  

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER @ NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

PICK: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER + 5.0 (-115) - - - 3.5 UNITS

What outstanding defensive performances from the New Orleans Hornets.  Most undervalued defender in the West is Emeka Okafor.  He has been brilliant for the Hornets, a post presence.  Consistent double-digit rebounder and provides offense when called upon.  West is a 17ft assassin and also consistent.  CP# continues to lead this team offensively and defensively, he is the catalyst.  OKC has owned and operated the Thunder this season, they have taken all respective games this season but each game was a battle.  Both teams have improved since their last meeting.  Westbrook has really stepped up his game, he was playing very well early in the season as well but now he has elevated his offensive and defensive game.  I think he outshines the nature boy Chris Paul tonight.  Ariza is a hit and miss offensive player, tonight he will try to guard Durant but I suspect to no avail.  Kristic coming off a good game should duplicate his performance.  My sixth man of the year in the Western Conference thus far is not Jason Terry, it is Serge Ibaka.  He alongside Nick Collison are two ferocious big men off the OKC pine.  They will come into the game and take Jason Smith And Mbenga (if he plays) out of their game.  Both teams brimming with confidence, I honestly see no value on the OKC ML, I see tremendous value in the 5 points.  This should be more like a 1.5 – 2.5 spread, I will gladly take the generous points.

SACRAMENTO KINGS @ PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

PICK: NO PLAY

I was very tempted to take the Kings here.  You may think I am crazy for saying this but these two teams have a very similar makeup.  Kings matchup very well with Portland.  Cousins, Thompson, Landry and Dalembert can hold their own in the paint vs Prizz and Big L.  Reke should have no problem taking Wesley off the dribble.  Andre will be playing through a harsh flu and Batum and Caspi will be a good matchup.  Off the bench Sac actually has more weaponry, but if Rudy Fernandez keeps playing the way he has as of late, this one should be another win at the Rose Garden.  Nate McMillan deserves a lot of credit, how he still has this team in the hunt for playoff positioning is beyond me.  Outstanding.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

PICK: NO PLAY

I see the Spurs really coming out with a lot of intensity after an embarrassing 3rd quarter vs the Hornets cost them their worst loss of the season.  Tonight guard play is key.  Monta and Ellis will go toe-to-toe with Tony and Manu.  George Hill and Gary Neal will be key off the bench.  Blair should have a big game here as he usually explodes against high octane opponents.    I find it funny that a team that is 37-7 is available to me at a one possession win (-3.0) at -135 juice against a team that is 19-24.  Still not the utmost respect given to this Spurs team.  Nevertheless, I just cannot go against the Warriors.  I love their short rotation, offensive system and starting five too much to bet against them at home against any team in the NBA.  Value on San An, no play for me.  

Thanks for the picks mak! Great insights as always.

 Good luck tonight Mak!

I like the Cavs play

I appreciate that, the best of luck to you tonight boss.

Islandstyle, always a pleasure hearing from you.  Best of luck to us with the Cavs, we will need it.

Interesting and in-depth as usual. Keep 'em coming.

Great writeups as always Mak. Our Raps have to end this losing streak somehow and I find Memphis as one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. Win games they shouldn't, lose all the ones they should win. Really like Bulls -3.5 first half, good call

I would have loved to see D.Rose in the dunk contest.  Kid has a sick vertical. 

Love that shaggy dog.

Welcome Back Mak...glad to see your insight back. Missed it over the weekend.

Just read all of the write-ups. They are very helpful thanks

Unreal writeups man.

Solid write-ups as usual- like the Rockets cause they always take care of weaker teams this season and your Sixers play is nice too- fading you on the Thunder though and I'm gonna be on the Kings tonight

I'm sure after tonight's card you'll be sippin some drink while watching the Federer-Wawrinka match

BOL

i look at it as this is a game can win in a blowout

Solid picks throughout Mak.

Cavs +9 - Like you said...scary as shit.  I took them last game, and I think that's all my heart can take for a while!!  Any time you have to say the words "good chance for them to NOT lose by double digits" you know you have a shitty team!

Sixers ML - On it myself, fading the Suns, love it!

Rockets -2 - Only holding off because the line seems just a touch fishy for me.  Otherwise, the Rockets should be able to handle the Wolves.

OKC have won the last 4 vs NOR.. I am worried about this one as the thunder haven't won a big game, other than ORL last week since beating the Hornets back in December.. They have lost to LA, Denver, SA, Dallas x2, Chicago and Boston. The second tier teams like Atlanta and New Orleans have seen wins, but they are playing to much 1 on 1 without isolating Durant properly.. The hornets Defense is geared up to stop this kind of play and i think that they will have a point to prove tonight as they look for win number 9 in this streak.. I still can't decide who gets this one! TAKE the points the voices keep saying..

Mak,

great insight ... appreciate the effort !!! on a side note, i'm still not able to put money on the cavs ... just can't do it (for all the reasons you mentioned above) ... but tonight may be their night  

BOL

anna31204

Mak - when do you suspect we will get word on Jose?