You have more than your gut here Roggs. You have a good write-up! It's just that Tyronn Lue is a neophyte to begin with and now he is in the NBA Finals. He hasn't even coached a full NBA season and now he must help guide the greatest player in the world (with Curry?) to a Championship with proper rotations. But we also know that Lebron is the de facto head coach and will assert his authority if this team goes down 3-2, 3-1.
This is a very tough series to pick at these prices. I see poor value in the Warriors at their current price in a rematch and I would have liked the Cavs at +220/+230.
BegginerBoy, who I trust with all Warriors picks, is taking the Warriors in 6. I can't fade that.
In addition to that, adversity is a key question for these teams. We know one team faced and overcame major adversity. That is huge psychologically. The Cavs never faced it. Going 2-2 and returning home against a Raps team whose star of the moment was Bismak Biyambo is not the definition of 'adversity'.
At the same time, I simply can't see Lebron letting this team, now fully healthy as you thoroughly noted, go down 2-0 to start this series. They have shown they can more than come alive from deep (again as you noted) and that is not to be underestimated. I haven't bet it but if I do, I'll probably take the Cavs spread and some ML in Games 1 and 2 and pull for them to go 1-1 and then jump on Begginerboy's Warriors series bet when the Warriors have better value heading to Game 3 if it works out that way. 
Always a great read... if people like the Warriors this is absolutely how it should be wagered...
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