I've never made play strictly off line movement but I will now.
The Cleveland line opened up at Cavs (-4.5), it stayed steady until I wiseguy play moved the line from (-4.5) all the way down to Cavs (-3) temporarily, which looks like a sharp bettor layed A LOT of money on the Wizards, the line moved back to -4.5 then to -5 and now to -5.5, yet 80% of the money is on the cavs but the line is still moving up? I'm not a stickler for this kind of stuff as I'd rather look at stats and figure stuff out but this line looks like it BEGGING for Cleveland and has sucker written all over it, and theres only so much analyzing you can do when teams have played each other 4-5 times in a series, there's really nothing new.
Breaking down the matchup, these teams have played a fairly evenly matched series, only the simple fact that the Cavs have closed out games puts them up 3-1, but it could EASILY be 3-1 Wizards. Both teams are fairly evenly matched with a slight edge to Washington overall, Cleveland does have the superstar though and that always means something.
I expect,just like every elimination game so far in this seasons playoffs to have the winner decided in the closing moments and a tightly contested defensive oriented battle, especially in the 2nd half (play 2nd half under).
Every elimination game has gone under the total and have been close, I would be very surprised to see a blowout.
Going off the line movement, the nature of this years playoffs, and these 2 teams history, I'd play the Wizards (+5.5) and the Under 192.
p.s. Sorry to all those that lost money on the Suns moneyline last night, I'm almost ashamed to say I'm a fan of that team. I was watching the game (thankfully had no money on it this time) and when Phoenix took the lead late in the game, I told everyone that Phoenix would choke the game somehow,just watch, even made a side bet when the Suns were up late with a buddy for $100. Sure enough Nash has 3 turnovers in the final minute and Diaw throws the ball into the crowd. I'm laughing my ass off because it's the same stuff I see every year and every game this series with those Suns. How 'bout throwing the ball to Stoudemire every now and then? I was so happy to see them eliminated last night and felt bad for anyone that bet on them.
I've never made play strictly off line movement but I will now.
The Cleveland line opened up at Cavs (-4.5), it stayed steady until I wiseguy play moved the line from (-4.5) all the way down to Cavs (-3) temporarily, which looks like a sharp bettor layed A LOT of money on the Wizards, the line moved back to -4.5 then to -5 and now to -5.5, yet 80% of the money is on the cavs but the line is still moving up? I'm not a stickler for this kind of stuff as I'd rather look at stats and figure stuff out but this line looks like it BEGGING for Cleveland and has sucker written all over it, and theres only so much analyzing you can do when teams have played each other 4-5 times in a series, there's really nothing new.
Breaking down the matchup, these teams have played a fairly evenly matched series, only the simple fact that the Cavs have closed out games puts them up 3-1, but it could EASILY be 3-1 Wizards. Both teams are fairly evenly matched with a slight edge to Washington overall, Cleveland does have the superstar though and that always means something.
I expect,just like every elimination game so far in this seasons playoffs to have the winner decided in the closing moments and a tightly contested defensive oriented battle, especially in the 2nd half (play 2nd half under).
Every elimination game has gone under the total and have been close, I would be very surprised to see a blowout.
Going off the line movement, the nature of this years playoffs, and these 2 teams history, I'd play the Wizards (+5.5) and the Under 192.
p.s. Sorry to all those that lost money on the Suns moneyline last night, I'm almost ashamed to say I'm a fan of that team. I was watching the game (thankfully had no money on it this time) and when Phoenix took the lead late in the game, I told everyone that Phoenix would choke the game somehow,just watch, even made a side bet when the Suns were up late with a buddy for $100. Sure enough Nash has 3 turnovers in the final minute and Diaw throws the ball into the crowd. I'm laughing my ass off because it's the same stuff I see every year and every game this series with those Suns. How 'bout throwing the ball to Stoudemire every now and then? I was so happy to see them eliminated last night and felt bad for anyone that bet on them.
but with 80% money cle the line is moving up which is the proper direction no?
Agreed. This does not qualify as reverse line movement at all IMO. I am on the same bets and would love to have more reason to be confident but I am just not seeing it here.
but with 80% money cle the line is moving up which is the proper direction no?
Agreed. This does not qualify as reverse line movement at all IMO. I am on the same bets and would love to have more reason to be confident but I am just not seeing it here.
Agreed. This does not qualify as reverse line movement at all IMO. I am on the same bets and would love to have more reason to be confident but I am just not seeing it here.
You're right this is not reverse line movement, I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
Just observing the lines I notice that 80% of the money is on Cleveland, now 75% yet the line has been steady (4.5-5), I figure if that much money (or smart money) were on Cleveland, the line should be at 5.5-6 at most books yet it's only at 5, only half a point from where it first opened.
Looking at the lines I noticed a sharp play was made on the Wizards at 1 of the vegas books which moved the line from 4.5 to 3 for a few hours.
Agreed. This does not qualify as reverse line movement at all IMO. I am on the same bets and would love to have more reason to be confident but I am just not seeing it here.
You're right this is not reverse line movement, I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
Just observing the lines I notice that 80% of the money is on Cleveland, now 75% yet the line has been steady (4.5-5), I figure if that much money (or smart money) were on Cleveland, the line should be at 5.5-6 at most books yet it's only at 5, only half a point from where it first opened.
Looking at the lines I noticed a sharp play was made on the Wizards at 1 of the vegas books which moved the line from 4.5 to 3 for a few hours.
Meant to say the line is steady yet most of the money is on the cavs, it's only at 5.5 at 2 offshore books and 1 vegas book, I don't think I mentioned reverse line movement, sorry if that was implied.
Meant to say the line is steady yet most of the money is on the cavs, it's only at 5.5 at 2 offshore books and 1 vegas book, I don't think I mentioned reverse line movement, sorry if that was implied.
i was noticing that too cap! with everyone on the side and money it looks way too easy to pick CLE, especially at home. obviously, CLE will most likely win since the stat is 2-192 or something like that for road dogs facing elimination, but CLE is definitely not going to cover. like the under on all games and have been cashing in under on the 2nd haves of these elimination games. thanks for the post and as always GL!!
i was noticing that too cap! with everyone on the side and money it looks way too easy to pick CLE, especially at home. obviously, CLE will most likely win since the stat is 2-192 or something like that for road dogs facing elimination, but CLE is definitely not going to cover. like the under on all games and have been cashing in under on the 2nd haves of these elimination games. thanks for the post and as always GL!!
I took Arenas injury situation into consideration and just threw it out the window. It's the worst when players indecisiveness about whether they will play or not costs bettors money..
Wiz have played all season without Gil, they made the playoffs without Gil, have 2 all stars, have Antonio Daniels who is a capable pg and Roger Mason who is sorta like a poor mans Gilbert Arenas. Roger Mason is nice, been following him since his days at Virginia.
They seemed to do OK without Gil in the last 3 quarters of game 3.
I took Arenas injury situation into consideration and just threw it out the window. It's the worst when players indecisiveness about whether they will play or not costs bettors money..
Wiz have played all season without Gil, they made the playoffs without Gil, have 2 all stars, have Antonio Daniels who is a capable pg and Roger Mason who is sorta like a poor mans Gilbert Arenas. Roger Mason is nice, been following him since his days at Virginia.
They seemed to do OK without Gil in the last 3 quarters of game 3.
I would love to know what the real stat is but no way am I researching it myself. People will use examples like the Pistons in 1996 to prove it wrong but if they have to reach that far back... (I know there was one in 2006 too) then that tells me that even if the stat is not so extreme, it is probably significant.
Just how off do you guys think that stat is? 20 games? 70?
I doubt the guy made it up. Probably just read it wrong. And if he only messed up his math by a dozen or two I still think it is a compelling stat. But I don't know for sure so I am not factoring it in.
I would love to know what the real stat is but no way am I researching it myself. People will use examples like the Pistons in 1996 to prove it wrong but if they have to reach that far back... (I know there was one in 2006 too) then that tells me that even if the stat is not so extreme, it is probably significant.
Just how off do you guys think that stat is? 20 games? 70?
I doubt the guy made it up. Probably just read it wrong. And if he only messed up his math by a dozen or two I still think it is a compelling stat. But I don't know for sure so I am not factoring it in.
I got it at +6 and U 192. Here's how I see it. Cleveland could win and they should but then they have to win by more than 6 pts. All Washington has to do is be competitive which I fully expect them to do since their season is done if they don't. Not asking them to win, just play hard and keep it close. Thats not too much to ask. Like I said there's always the possibility of a blowout but I don't see it.
By the way, take away the 1st game and Gilbert is averaging 6.3 ppg in the series. Arenas not playing doesn't look like a reason for the line to move.
I got it at +6 and U 192. Here's how I see it. Cleveland could win and they should but then they have to win by more than 6 pts. All Washington has to do is be competitive which I fully expect them to do since their season is done if they don't. Not asking them to win, just play hard and keep it close. Thats not too much to ask. Like I said there's always the possibility of a blowout but I don't see it.
By the way, take away the 1st game and Gilbert is averaging 6.3 ppg in the series. Arenas not playing doesn't look like a reason for the line to move.
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