Johnson's NBA Friday 12/20

OVERALL RECORD:  65-69  (-$1030)
    November:  40-50  (44.4%)
================================================================

1-0 last night with the sweat it out until the end Bulls pick.  Before I get to today's predictions, write-ups, and picks...I absolutely have to tackle the Kobe Bryant situation (again).

The past month has absolutely crippled the Lakers for the next 3-5 years IMO.  The way Kobe, and more importantly the management, handled this whole achilles/contract/return is disgraceful.  The Lakers were playing competent basketball for the first month of the season, playing .500 basketball, and looking like they are having fun doing it.  Kobe comes back, their scoring drops 5 points per game, they go 2-4 overall with one of the wins coming when Kobe gets hurt. 

Here's the biggest statistical reason why Kobe should not have come back this season....they scored 56 fast break points in the six games that Kobe was back.  That's less than 10 points per game on a fast break.  You have Mike D'Antoni, notorious for getting out and running...before Kobe came back they were averaging 15 fast break points per game. 

Now I'm putting all the blame on Kobe Bryant in this situation.  His selfishness and blatant refusal to adjust his game to meet the benefits of the team is embarrassing.  You look at the last 3 champions and they all include players/teams/coaches that adjusted individually to meet team goals.  Kobe has been so incredibly steadfast that he is going to come back quicker than anyone ever has from this injury and that he hasn't lost a step and blah blah blah.  Guess what idiot, you submarined the team for two weeks...guilted them into a horrendous contract that cripples them financially for the next two years..they don't have the ability to bring in the 3-4 free agents that they need to.

As most of you may have been able to figure out, I'm an intensely huge fan of NBA basketball.  The Celtics are my team, and I've hated the Lakers forever because that's what we do.  However, I know that for the NBA to be great, the Lakers have to be great.  I've viewed Kobe as the best player of the 2000's.  They are now going to be more exciting, more free, and I will be backing them more often than not.

Celtics would take Kobe in a heartbeat if he was cheap 

Think you nailed it CM 

Brooklyn vs Philadelphia -

Nothing in the game because of the injury situation.  MCW should be back for the Sixers, so I want to see if that boosts them up a bit, or if they continue to do nothing.  For the Nets, KG is doubtful tonight and they have been up and down all year.  Too many inconsistencies in this one.

Utah vs Atlanta -

Rather large lean towards the OVER in this one.  The Hawks have been putting up 105+ in their home games like it's nothing...the Jazz defense certainly hasn't been great ranking 22nd in points allowed per game.  Very over friendly refs as well...I can see the Hawks getting up around 110 or so.

Milwaukee vs Cleveland -

I want to lean towards the UNDER because as usual the Bucks entire roster is hurt.  Irving is sick and won't be 100% tonight.  The Bucks beat the Cavs by 5 last month in Milwaukee...so I also find it hard to believe the Cavs will adjust that by 15 points.  This might be the "Vegas adjustment" game for the Cavs...covered the last 5 games and the linesmakers have had enough of it.

Charlotte vs Detroit -

Who's ready for a 5 game Bobcats winning streak?  I am!  Lean towards the road team in this one, and the best road team in the NBA ATS this season.  Bobcats playing very well right now, they are rested coming into this one, they have nothing major on the horizon as far as scheduling is concerned.  Detroit just beat the Pacers and Celtics on the road...letdown game here.

Sacramento vs Miami -

Small lean on the OVER if anything.  The Heat can put up big points at home...the Kings aren't completely useless on offense themselves.  Have a sneaking suspicion that the Heat win this game, but miss out on the cover by a point or two.  I figured this line would be set at about 12 or so...but then wasn't surprised when it was set low to entice action on the Heat.  They have a tough game against Atlanta coming up and then the Xmas day game against the Lakers.

Houston vs Indiana -

Matt Boland apparently is liking the home teams lately!  Lean towards the UNDER if anything in this game.  The Pacers know that if they want to be able to stop their two game losing streak, they need to step up their defensive effort.  They did alright early on against the Heat, but struggled late...and just didn't show up against the Pistons. 

Toronto vs Dallas -

Good sized lean towards the Mavericks tonight.  Not a fan of how much love the Mavs are getting...but they deserve it.  Raptors starting the Texas road trip which teams always struggle with...they couldn't get past the Bobcats the other night, and the Mavericks fast paced offense should tear them up.

Phoenix vs Denver -

I like the OVER in this one despite the fact that the Nuggets have been wildly inconsistent with their scoring the past couple of weeks.  The refs in this one tend to push the pace, and you know that the Suns are going to want to do the same thing.  I figured it would be around the 209-210 level...both teams should be able to get over 100 points in this one.

Minnesota vs LA Lakers -

Love the Lakers tonight.  Love them.  Their crutch is gone.  Minnesota doesn't play amazing defense.  They just got done with a huge win against the Blazers...and have the Clippers on board tomorrow night.  Lakers get back to running and gunning and having fun out there with the young guys.

Nope.  They are building for the future...a 35 year old making stupid money with two major injuries doesn't fit that.  Why do you think they are getting rid of Bass and Lee (or at least trying to) for Asik?

thanks CMJ! 

LA Lakers +6.5  ($220 to win $200)

Taking this one early.  There isn't any amount of research that I could have done to change my mind here.  The Wolves are in a bad scheduling spot...the Lakers will be able to get easy shots tonight against a team that isn't great defensively. 

Prediction:  Lakers 106  Wolves 102

Dallas Mavericks -6  ($220 to win $200)

Another 2 unit play tonight here.  Love the Mavericks to just wipe the depleted Raptors off the court tonight.  Raptors struggled against the Bobcats, are looking to trade away their entire team and tank the season...what is their motivation for coming out strong on this road trip?

Prediction:  Mavericks 111  Raptors 95

I remember the Celtics picking up Shaq a few years back just to fill up the seats, not because he was good 

Good luck CJ

 

THIS THOUGHTFUL ANALYSIS REVEALS TO ME THAT YOU REALLY KNOW WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT.  IT CONFIRMS WHY I ALWAYS READ YOUR ANALYSIS EVERY DAY.  YOU HAVE NO ARROGANCE-- JUST THOUGHTFULNESS.  The Lakers were a cash cow playing free and easy with two point guards prior to Blake and Farmar going down.  Jim Buss has a man-crush on Kobe is the only way i can explain this.  

agree with both of your pics, playin the same, however Lakers plus points small stakes, Dallas -6 big.
If there is any justice, Dallas will keep the business, they are more focused, more dynamic and overall more motivaed team that this ridiculous bunch of nobodies from Toronto....

Sorry...I thought they had a b2b in the Staples Center as most teams do.

No prob. I agree with these other guys. You have a good pov on games. BOL tonight

CMJ I enjoy reading your posts..one of the best basketball cappers in this forum,

Phoenix vs Denver OVER 205  ($110 to win $100)

Gotta believe that the fast pace of the Suns offense will kick start the Nuggets as well.  Should be a very entertaining game for sure

Prediction:  Nuggets 112  Suns 108

Utah vs Atlanta OVER 198.5  ($110 to win $100)

Utah's defense is barely there as it is...Hawks play faster at home and have been rolling along quite nicely lately.  I expect them to get up to the 107-113 range.

Prediction:   Hawks 109  Jazz 96

well my friend your stats are accurate in this write-up although, the don't speak the entire truth. The fact that Farmar, and Blake were out during those games might have some impact on the fast break points. kobe is a natural scorer. he played PG in most of those games how much more of an adjustment could he have made. Don't mistake passion and compettive spirit for selfishness. A.P did same thing for the vikings, it worked out for him and he was celebrated nationally. Rose sat out an entire yr and still got hurt. So sitting out gurantees nothing. as far as the $$$ go the lakers brass didnt antcipate filling up staples every night with Jodi meeks and Swaggy P out there. kobes extenstion will pay for itself, no one signs players on the premise they will be hurt. This guy is loved in L .A. they would never give him the peyton manning treatment.  Check the history of the team, 3-4 free agent pick ups has never gotten them anywhere. Its the block buster trade, and surrounding it with lower level contracts to get it done. After this yr kobe and nash are the only players on the books money will not be an issue. ( Research the Time Warner deal)

CMJ, who runs the point for the Lakers tonight?

Agree with damu4life here. The situation the Lakers were put in whem kobe came back was not conducive for a seamless transition. You lose all your pgs to injury and Kobe is forced to play the pg, a position he has never been asked to play. I think given the circumstances, he did a commendable job. If you think the fact he's out doesn't change a thing offensively. They still have a ton of one-on-one players who can't really distribute the ball. Defensively, they may improve BC they'll have younger and more athletic players on the court now.

As for the contract, I am a laker fan and a part of me wishes he took less money. But any sane and logical person would take the contract he got. This is going to be his last payday in the NBA and I don't blame him at all for taking it. He isn't a business man, a doctor, or anything else. He's a baller, and if I was only going to play for a couple more years, I'd do what I could to get paid, considering he really has no other life skills that can earn him tge money he makes playing ball. So I think you labelling him as selfish is not fair. Additionally, while he wasn't producing on the court what his contract value dictates, he was still playing well. Nash, on the other hand, is not playing, and when he does, is not productive. And he is not a marketable player right now. I'd be more upset at that contract if I were the laker front office than Kobe's.

Cm, respect that u put your thoughts and plays and back them up. I disagree with you a lot, but I do read your perspective to help narrow my bets down. So continue the good work.

Mistyped. Meant to say "if you think him being out changes them offensively, I think you are wrong. At least until they get back farmar and Blake."