Honestly my 2nd largest wager ever

I suspect most of the degenerates here in Covers were athletes at some point in their lives. It's hard to meet someone who doesn't play sports and likes sports. I was also one of those who had the dream of becoming a professional player and I remember very well how tiring it is to play away from home. How tiring it is to play games in a row. Until today I practice playing soccer and I have to take 2-3 days off to practice again. 1 week to fully recover. The question here is quite simple, do you really think these Miami players are recovered?? This is impossible. Dender had 10 days to recover and prepare for this game. I believe it will be one of the most blowouts in the history of the NBA FINALS, it's impossible not to go heavy on this bet. It's my second biggest bet in history. I already told how the first one was here on the forum.

Denver Nuggets -8.5 -110/ 2.000 (20 units) 

It had to be a hard grind for Miami especially with their shorter bench, looked like they were worn out until that last game...there's the mile high factor involved as well which does make a difference.

There is plenty of history showing that teams that are off for an extended break, waiting to find out who their opponent will be, sometimes come out flat.  This happens in the NFL, MLB and NBA.  Yes, DEN has had plenty of time to rest and recover, but they haven't played competitively in a week.  The "mile high" issue is most definitely real.  I would hope MIA flew to DEN as soon as possible to get acclimated.   

Ahh yes. Great fade material you are sir

LOCK 

@bluecompass

 Miami booked a flight to Denver before playing their final game with Boston. So they left asap. 

I would disagree with one point... this forum is infested with people who bet on sports, but never played sports at any type of competitive level.

@GriLo

 Really? They are professional athletes playing for it all. Tired? Maybe. But really? I think it will be a good finals. Denver in six. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Good luck on your second biggest bet (why you feel the need to say this, as you you think it will make your theory more impressive) of your life 

@wmi799

 There's a reason why the finals of most competitions take a few days to happen. Even if they are short notice like in football, teams rest their players for at least 1 week. Because they know that rest makes all the difference. Mainly in defense of a team. As I said, only someone who has played at an almost professional level like me can understand this.

Bought tickets str8 to Denver not back to Miami. Heat landed in Denver soon as they could to get acclimated. Miami are not messing around.

@GriLo

 Hedge your bet to save money. 10 days and do not know which team to prepare until 3 days ago is useless. Only the advantage that Denver have are home game and a mile height. Rusty issue is a big deal. You will not be surprise when Denver comes out flat. The best bet is

1H: Miami +5.5

@3BallBomber

 This is clearly already a strategy to alleviate all the difficulty caused. But I still hit the key of physical fatigue. There were 7 games, traveling from the South to the East of the country, while the Nuggets slept 10 hours a night and studied everything about both teams. This line of -8.5 is based only on the quality of the teams and the home factor, for me this line does not include the physical wear factor which is the main factor here. I really think the line was just -12.

@GriLo

 LOL! Whatever. 

That's a ridiculous statement!  Books factor in everything to their lines. They are fully aware that most bettors will be thinking the way you're thinking, in terms of the rest and fatigue factors.

Ask the players on Milwaukee, New York, and Boston who they like in game one?  

denver and Miami played two close games during regular season. 

caleb Martin, Vince and Duncan R are different players. 

Good luck dude. I might just play live once I have a feel for the game. Something tells me Denver wins but doesn't cover. They left a pretty bad taste in my mouth allowing the Lakers to backdoor cover 2x at home (push for me but still) in the most disgusting ways. That line was smaller and I think the Heat are playing far better.

All over Denver to win in 5 or 6 but the line tonight seems awfully high for a Finals game

Bol bro

@Duderonomy

I completely agree. If you've actually played competitive sports, at least through HS, you should have a better understanding of why some things happen. I know I've read comments in here that immediately told me they have never played competitive sports, sorry shooting the ball with your buddies in your driveway doesn't count. As much as I like hockey now I can't fully grasp all that happens because it's the one major sport I never played, traditional American kid here, football, baseball, basketball all through HS. Drives me batty when people who've clearly never played try and tell me or others who have why or why not.

Like it! Best of luck!

Some of the young math guys never held a ball in their lives and watch zero games. They just run their statistical analysis and correlate the outcome vs the price. If the game, prop or total is priced incorrectly they place money down. Literally has zero to do with the "sport". It is one of the reasons by using mathematical they can bet every sport each night. They don't wear down, need a break or stress. There mathematical calculations determine if the market had created EV or the Corporations have hung a bad line. The young math wiz who only bet MLB steal probabilities is an excellent example. He and others found the flaw in the numbers that the Books were pricing and also the incorrectly measured totals so dual advantage.  Many sportsbooks have stopped post the stolen bet props a year later or have severely limited what they can get down. 

      My thoughts EXACTLY.  I think the Heat keep it within the 8.5

Alright, I won my bet, I hit the correct Handicap of -12, but I got the big impression
that the Miami team is a superior team in skills and chemistry.

What was missing for them was exactly what I hit the key in this forum: Fatigue.

Like I said, I used to be an athlete, and I know how a good night's sleep makes all the difference, they didn't have time
rest, they probably already entered the court knowing they were going to lose.

But game 2 will be different, now it will be a game of equals with the 2 rested teams and Miami
more adapted to the place as well.

I even believe that Denver can win, but it will be a short victory and MiAMI Covers this Handicap of +9 easily.

Hey, tip of the cap.  Agree.  Miami game two.