Posted:
#1
The game? Thunder at Blazers!
Thunder are -10.
Why do I like the Blazers?
1. Lamarcus is back, Lillard is on a tear and the 3 rookie starters have been playing together for a little while now.
Lamarcus is the heart and soul of this team. He was 'sick' in the Laker game and was a game time decision on Wednesday. What did he do? As a 'sick' dog, he put up 17 PTs and grabbed 16 rebounds. The game before that 18 and 13. Before that? 32 and 13. LA is playing some really solid ball since he returned from a 4 game absence. He is here to play and is gonna put up some big numbers tonight so we can count on him on the offensive end and defensive end.
Why? Because the blazers are on a terrible losing streak. They have lost 9 in a row. But listen, those 9 were against very good and good quality: OKC, Brooklyn, Utah, Golden State, Jazz, Memphis, Houston, Dallas, and LA - all playoff or near playoff teams.
It's been a brutal stretch with a team decimated by injuries.
That leads us to the second guy who we can depend in tonight. After giving us 11 and 7 vs Hou and 15 and 4 vs. Dallas, he exploded for 38 and 9 vs. LA. Not bad for a rookie against show time.
Why? Well Steve Nash's D had something to do with it but there was more. URGENCY!
They are on a nine game losing streak and worse, this is their FIFTH STRAIGHT GAME at home. Should we care given they've lost 9 in a row? Yes. Because in their last two games they've played like a different team. Vs Dallas they were down 24 at the half and then came storming back to come within a three pointer of tying it in with 24 seconds left in the 4th. That would have covered for us if we had POR +4.5. Two free throws later put them .5 pt outside the cover. This was all after Wesley Mathews ripped the team to the media. Players calling out players matter, even if its just little 'ol Wesley. It's a mutiny and teams usually take it as a slap in the face when it goes public. The Blazers stepped up after that and will continue to.
Vs. LA a Blazer team starting 4 rookies scored 41! In the first quarter and had the lead until 6 minutes left in the 4th. Two Kobe free throws to ice it put them 1 pt outside the closing number of 6 for the cover.
So if you had the Blazers the last two games, they took you right to the finish line and gave it away at the very end by .5 and 1 pt outside the cover.
Why is tonight different? TEN is a ton of PTs to get against ANYONE when you are playing at home. Bookies hate to give more unless its a team like the Bobcats. 10 is also a ton especially if you are at home for five straight games. Especially if the team, even one as powerful as OKC is on a B2B from the night before. Especially against an OKC team that is an unimpressive 7-7 against the spread in B2B's this year and those games didn't have a number this high on the road in the second game. Especially if the team they played had them running up and down the floor the whole night in a Defense-less game where Durant had to play most of the game and hit near his season average on minutes the night before.
So who are the three rookie starters we need to step up? Claver, Leonard and Barton. Listen, none of the three are anything to write home about. Barton did drop 22 against the Mavs to earn a start so the guy can score. We need some help from the bench too from Luke Babbitt who has also felt the urgency to win to break this steak giving us 12/6 and 10/5 the past two games for a guy that averages 4/2 on the year (damn good for a bench guy and stepping up IMO). That leaves Victor Claver from Spain, who really needs to find his shot tonight going for 9 PTs in 3/11 last game, and Meyers Leonard who gave us only 4 last game.
There is a saving grace here though. JJ Hickson is back! Don't laugh. He will replace Leonard and we go from a guy averages 5pts/3reb to a double double man in 12pts/10reb.
I think a solid returning starter in Hickson is where the books go wrong in spotting us 10 tonight.
We get 2 starters, one playing great LA, and Lillard who came into his own last game and now Hickson who can give us defense and offense. The other guys just need to add a little extra to the mix to win this for us.
I'm Counting on URGENCY. I'm counting on Blazer pride. I'm counting on streak busting with the Blazers knowing they need to save themselves from the embarrassment of a 5 straight game home losing streak (8 in a row nonconsecutive). I'm counting on the Blazers realizing this losing streak could go into next season with @ Denver (impossible to beat on the road) @ Clippers and home for Golden State to close the season. 3 very tough ones...
What better way to end a losing streak than against the best in the West??
I'm thinking all that and you are giving me 10 with all this urgency? Yeah I know OKC is playing for the top spot but winning is their goal, not necessarily blowing the doors off the Blazers by 10+.
That is why I think the Blazers can win this game at the buzzer making 10 points a rose garden full of hundred dollar bills...
The Pick: BLAZERS +10 OVER OKC
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I had to show some urgency! The regular season is sadly almost over.
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