Friday

49-36 (+13.61u)   
2-0 yesterday 

Friday:  
OKC -4.5 3x    
OKC/DEN u234 2x
CLE/IND u230.5 2x

analysis below

I like fading the Nuggets with some of these 4-seed trends:

As an underdog 13-27 ATS 32.5% since 2015

After a loss 10-22 SU and ATS 31.3%

There is some data that shows the 4-seed does good covering at home over the last 8 years but I simply think that this Thunder team is a better/deeper team that just woke up and we’re getting under 5 points. None of the starters on OKC played over 30 minutes. 

@MrFreedo

 Bol MrFreedo 

@MrFreedo

 What 3x and 2x mean?

Both series have went over the total in each game (4-0). Prior to this postseason, since 2018, the under was 13-0 when 227.5 or higher. Cleveland will fight hard being down 2-0 and on the road. If they lose, the series is completely lost. If Mobley is ruled in I may add to this. All these teams are offensive juggernauts but I think we are due for some unders with a switch in venues. 

looking at some props too…

@BOOGYMANE 

To win 3 units or 2 units

You could look at it like how confident the play is too

Updated Card: 

OKC -4.5 3x    
OKC/DEN u234 2x
CLE/IND u230.5 2x  
Westbrick o12.5 points (+100)   
Nesmith o12.5 points   
Caruso PRA o12.5   
Caruso o1.5 steals +125

Did some personal plays ladder on Caruso steals. Caruso had 2+ in every game that wasn’t a blowout in the playoffs. Won’t track this, but it’s worth looking at imo. 

2- +125   
3- +390    
4- +1400

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Good luck Mr. F.  

FREEDO 

Get em Freedough

“Shams: Evan Mobley, De'Andre Hunter aiming to play Friday”

I see the total went back up in the Pacers/Cleveland game. I still like it because Mobley is the DPOY, and Hunter has a dislocated finger on his shooting thumb but is a solid defender. I just saw a +6 it looks tempting…

Game 3&5 will be crucial. I think Okc will lose 3 but win games 4&5 b2b

Freedo

@Way2Good

May look toward Nuggets in a closeout game in OKC with an inflated line later on. 

Historically home teams are a good spot for game 3. Both are dogs tonight. What could go wrong?