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FF selective bets - January thread

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Posts: 284

HardCheddah

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2014

Posts: 223

Posted: Jan. 5, 2015 - 12:30 PM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by grandmastertim:

Minny just got completely embarrassed at home and flip is not pleased with this team at all. I think it's likely that this team shows up tonight. Sure they're not good but I think they'll play very hard tonight after the flop on saturday night and the nuggets coming off blowout win vs top 5 team, this looks like the time to take the home dog. BOL regardless.

Cards on the table: I had Minny last game because I thought they really badly needed a win and had a good shot at one catching Utah on the 2nd of a b2b on their home turf. Especially since Minny played them close in Utah less than a week before. The effort from Minnesota was embarrassing to say the least, especially after Utah expelled so much energy the night before trying to mount a comeback against Atlanta.

Believe it or not, despite this result, I think I might take another stab at Minny tonight. Minny and Denver played not too long ago (Dec.26, which is a bit more than a week) and Minny only lost by 4 in Denver. After a super poor revenge effort against Utah, perhaps they give a real revenge effort against Denver. I liked both these plays because they are divisional opponents as well. Utah in the last game was hungrier than Denver should be tonight after handling the Grizz so easily.

Finally, Minnesota is 3-3 ATS in their division though the average margin of victory is around -8 points.. Utah is 3-2 ATS with an average margin of victory over 3.5 points. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS with an average margin of victory of almost -5 points.

FunkFreaker

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 3875

Posted: Jan. 5, 2015 - 12:56 PM ET #52

milky24 Expect close game down to the wire so maybe the points are the better option. I'm actually 2-0 ATS for Warriors and 3-0 ATS against Warriors recorded here on covers so far in the season so i think i know when to take better spots on Warriors games. Leaning OKC+3 too only because i think it's gonna be bucket close but still think it's suicide to put an unit against best home team along with best home crowd in emotional game...

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Jan. 5, 2015 - 1:19 PM ET #53

Bulls - 3 at Home .. smelling fishy ...

JohnBlaze12

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 423

Posted: Jan. 5, 2015 - 1:26 PM ET #54

FunkFreaker

Nice thread. Good Picks.

FunkFreaker

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 3875

Posted: Jan. 5, 2015 - 2:25 PM ET #55

Bulls won 9 of their last 10 games but i noticed that recently their performances are not so good.

Last four games of Chicago Bulls (3-1)

1) Almost lose 20 pt lead against Pacers
2) Lost against bad Nets team
3) Win against non-defense bad road team like Nuggets with only 5
4) Struggling against Celtics and win in OT..

Now with Dunleavy out Thibs will have some troubles with the rotation and starting five. Really don't know how Mirotic will fit in 3 position but i'm sure that he needs time to adjust to that SF. Now Chicago finally face legit playoff western opponent and maybe it's time to fade them ?

Rockets + 3
1.1 units (to win 1)

I will also put some small extra money on Rockets ML for fun and extra cash of course.

BOL fellas

JVH1818

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 837

Posted: Jan. 5, 2015 - 3:27 PM ET #56

FunkFreaker what's your opninon about the Hawks game? Hawks +5,5 seems like a good line?

Good luck today!

FunkFreaker

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 3875

Posted: Jan. 5, 2015 - 3:46 PM ET #57

JVH1818 Very hard game for capping. If i have to be honest i lean Clippers but really haven't got good opinion on this. GL with your decision

Pendo

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 3644

Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 1:02 AM ET #58

Pipls feared de wrong beard. Fear the beard Mirrortiched in 3 spot,
twain Jimmy MVP Buckets n Noah/Taj... DRose-zone plays
Westbrookstyle, drives paint n dish slams = Bulls 6 straight over much vaunted West Div.

DonLevi out is not hurtful - opposite, cuz he really just another coaches son, like Heinrich, they old, slow, weak, play no D, (maybe good for 3ball if all others ice cold) Mirrortich & Oregon dude Brooks
make Bulls de new San Ant

FunkFreaker

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 3875

Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 4:59 AM ET #59

Pendo And what about Pau Gasol ? That was the summer move! Period. I have this guy in my fantasy team and i have no words. He reminds me in his Grizzlies years... even better (cause he is so experienced now). Jimmy Buckets is the MIP of the year no doubt. Under the dash we have Noah, Pau and Taj... plus Nikola who adjust very well in NBA and last night we saw some incredible things from him. If Chicago stay healthy they look like the only real contender from East who can beat any of the Western teams. Atlanta, Toronto and Washington are good teams too but don't know if they will be capable to win more than 1 or 2 games against Western Champion (no matter which one will be).

so 1-1 night. (Win with Nuggets and Lose with Rockets)

Overall ATS: 55-31-2 + 20.9 units
Overall Totals: 4-8-0 - 4.8 units
ML Dogs 1 st Quarter: 12-1-0 + 13.5 units

Overall profit: + 29.6 units

diondimucci

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 12934

Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 5:08 AM ET #60

great season you are having

FunkFreaker

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 3875

Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 5:40 AM ET #61

diondimucci

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 8:21 AM ET #62

Good luck today bro !! Due for a 1st Q Play ???

FunkFreaker

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 3875

Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 8:29 AM ET #63

No play today fellas. Small schedule and don't like nothing for tonight. I will take a day off and will be back tomorrow when the schedule is bigger.

civicsi099

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 185

Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 8:46 AM ET #64

Thanks for the Nuggets pick.

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 8:52 AM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:

No play today fellas. Small schedule and don't like nothing for tonight. I will take a day off and will be back tomorrow when the schedule is bigger.

fos4276

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 26

Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 10:31 AM ET #66

HOU was looking good for the first 45 mins, they just can't finish it nicely, anyway, you will get it back. Not to mention the nice pick on DEN

grandmastertim

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 186

Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 11:30 AM ET #67

Nice Nuggets play FF. I have lost all respect for MN. Zero effort out there once again in that first half.

FunkFreaker

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 3875

Posted: Jan. 7, 2015 - 5:04 AM ET #68

Fellas

After day off i'm coming back with two fresh early picks cause i love the lines right now. As a whole i'm huge fan of the schedule today and even could play three games (rare for me). I'm in total love with my first two for the day:

Pelicans - 4

Easy prediction. Hornets without Big Al haven't got any chance against any of the elite (yeah i think Pelicans are elite and if they play in EC will be top 4 seed for sure) western conference teams. Just can't see any reason why Charlotte will cover this game. They already win two in a row... don't really think they could improve the winning streak to three against playoff battle team which just lost at home.

1.1 units (to win 1)

Thunder - 7

Thunder own Kings during the years. This one of the easiest matchups for OKC according to the results. Thunder are 12 wins in a row and 21-2 in last 23 meetings against Kings... So this i think this is great spot to OKC for back in the game in the battle for good playoff seed after awful lose to Warriors two days ago. In addition Kings look bad recently after they fired their coach which was the biggest owner mistake so far in the season in my opinion. 7 points won't be problem i think. I see comfortable DD win for OKC.

1.1 units (to win 1)

Could add third one but later when i have line on it.

yammywin

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 24

Posted: Jan. 7, 2015 - 9:02 AM ET #69

thanks men for the clue :D

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Jan. 7, 2015 - 9:58 AM ET #70

Thx bro !! Good luck

jfmachado16

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 29

Posted: Jan. 7, 2015 - 11:03 AM ET #71

I thought the Celtics would take advantage of Al Jefferson absence last time the Hornets played (at Boston)... they didn't.... buuuut the Pels might be way different story. I've read an article written by a Pelicans fan on SBNation that is confident Pels will fight for playoffs till the end and get a spot if they reach 50Ws. So, this is a game the Pels can't throw away.

With the defenses showing similar numbers, I think the team with better pct(%), skilled players and hungry (for playoffs) must prevail. 'Reading' my spreadsheet Pels should be fav by 5. I'm taking Pelicans on ML, tho. Risking 2,5 units (odds 1,45).

102 x 96 the final score. Good luck! Thanks for your insight, FunkFreaker!

FunkFreaker

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 3875

Posted: Jan. 7, 2015 - 12:07 PM ET #72

Quote Originally Posted by jfmachado16:

102 x 96 the final score. Good luck! Thanks for your insight, FunkFreaker!

Pelicans seems the right side on every aspect of the game.

DAB12AC

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 370

Posted: Jan. 7, 2015 - 2:53 PM ET #73

Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:

Thunder - 7

Thunder own Kings during the years... I see comfortable DD win for OKC.

FF - looks like Waiters is going to play tonight. Does his presence scare you off this play? I can't imagine that it helps OKC.

FunkFreaker

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 3875

Posted: Jan. 7, 2015 - 3:23 PM ET #74

Quote Originally Posted by DAB12AC:

FF - looks like Waiters is going to play tonight. Does his presence scare you off this play? I can't imagine that it helps OKC.

Not at all. Actually Waiters could be nice fit for OKC if he become more disciplined. And i don't believe he will take many shots in his first game as a Thunder. Westbrook and Durant will carry OKC to the win after their poor shooting performance against Warriors last game. OKC - 7 is still strong pick for me. Of course of mine two bets i like Pelicans - 4 more