Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons
Find a situation you like and dig deep. First thing that caught my eye today was the Bulls. A team that was very hot that got embarrassed in what was a phenomenal spot for the Nets. Why was it such a bad spot for the Bulls? Well first of all it was a huge revenge game for the Nets who got beat from start to finish the last time they faced Chicago, a team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. This time around, they got to face them at home and catching the Bulls in a prime spot, playing with 0 rest after a big win. No surprise the Bulls got whacked. Now the Bulls get to face a Pistons team that beat them by 17 in Chicago back in December. Let's take a closer look how teams do in this situation.
Teams avenging a 10+ point home loss to same opponent have won 54% of revenge games since 2010.
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ATS: 290-247-15 (0.94, 54.0%)
Dig deeper.
Road favorites avenging a 10+ point home loss to same opponent have won 63.5% of revenge games since 2010.
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ATS: 66-38-2 (1.82, 63.5%)
Dig Deeper.
Road favorites off a loss avenging a 10+ point home loss to same opponent have won 64.4% of revenge games since 2010.
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ATS: 29-16-1 (2.68, 64.4%)
Dig. Deeper.
Road favorites off a loss avenging a 10+ point home loss to same opponent when opponent is off a win have won 77.3% of revenge games since 2010.
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ATS: 17-5-0 (4.18, 77.3%)
Dig ******* DEEPER
Road favorites off a loss avenging a 10+ point home loss to same opponent when opponent is off a win and with a winning percentage of 35% or greater have won 82.4% of revenge games since 2010.
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ATS: 14-3-0 (6.29, 82.4%)
BOOM. There it is. Add the fact that team is off a loss and opponent is off a win and opponent is a decent team and we have a 82.4% cover rate since 2010 with teams covering by an average of 6.29 points. Taking a closer look at these 17 games, the over has hit 13 times as well going over by an average of 7.71 points.
This situation is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 Over this year.
Chicago is also 9-2 ATS last 11 games off a loss. The sole thing preventing this from being a 5 unit wager is the Bulls are the most publicly backed team today getting 80%+ of all bets. WHYYYYYYYYY.
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Bulls -4 (3x)
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Over 192 (1x)
(got it at -3 early yesterday but posting the current line)