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6-0 posted plays... Reverse line moves

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Posted: #501
3 10:54 AM ESTMIAMI HEAT -7 at the end of the third line from scoresandodds.com


515Miami8
  Miami opening line is -8...

Will the kings cover? Who knows, they're down by 8 in the first 7 mins... But I felt it was a legit play...

Follow, fade or ignore... It's all good... BOL all
 
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Posted: #502
hey mike,
this is your thread...don't want to step on anyone's toes here
i appreciate you sharing your knowledge and i'm just learning here. i just wanted to see if you had a chance to see those picks and if you would consider them playing....that's it.....let's go kings...
 
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Posted: #503
one love baylor. i welcome your posts and insights. most of the time i'll be able to check out your picks and add my own thought, just didn't have the time today.  ... like i said earlier in the thread i'm all hopped up on codeine for the past 2 days because of a pinched nerve.


i just felt like i was being attacked by thebest, telling me where and when i should post and what games i should cap...

there's a reason i end my picks by saying follow, fade or ignore... it's all good.
 
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Posted: #504
hey dont worry bro. remember yesterdays blazer cover?
 
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Posted: #505
x3shift... That was a crazy one, huh?!... thanks for the support!
 
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Posted: #506
this is reminding me of lakers....reminds me of what memphis did to them a few nights ago....
 
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Posted: #507
pending the kings winning the fourth qtr by 20+ points...

0-2 today, 13-4 records in posted plays

2-3 in my plays vs dougie
 
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Posted: #508
why is it 0-2 today? i thought we won with phili. i got sixers and kings today.
 
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Posted: #509
Quote Originally Posted by x3shift:

why is it 0-2 today? i thought we won with phili. i got sixers and kings today.

My only system picks today were the under in the G bay game and Sacramneto Knigs..
 
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Posted: #510
Quote Originally Posted by JasonBravo:



I saw pretty much everybody on Missouri in the cbb forum, and as far as i know we are all public money, so i really don't understand how bama didn't cover as the line dropped 2 points.. i've been playing this way for a while too mate and it can be seriously profitable. Although for some reason i get burned on Saturdays, my theory is vegas wants the recreational bettor to win on the weekend to sucker them in to playing during the week. Anyway keep pushing fella, no doubt we'll have similar plays .


 I guess JasonBravo was right! At least for my picks! LOL
 
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Posted: #511
You're going under with texans side tomorrow?  Some good games in nba tomorrow.   Early ones.  
 
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Posted: #512
i use a similar system mike ive watched maybe two NBA games this year have no clue about injuries/ whos on what team i strictly watch the lines. think im 20-8 in my thread or something.  your flaw is not watching where the juice is at what time and where the bets are going along with the reverse lines throughout the day. pacers today -11.5 to -13 line remained juiced while bets flowed on pacers. people started betting on the bobcats 13.5 line started dropping back  to -11.5 juice remained on pacers. vegas knows what they're doing.  keep an eye on the bucks game tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #513
Quote Originally Posted by BradyWearsUGGZ:

i use a similar system mike ive watched maybe two NBA games this year have no clue about injuries/ whos on what team i strictly watch the lines. think im 20-8 in my thread or something.  your flaw is not watching where the juice is at what time and where the bets are going along with the reverse lines throughout the day. pacers today -11.5 to -13 line remained juiced while bets flowed on pacers. people started betting on the bobcats 13.5 line started dropping back  to -11.5 juice remained on pacers. vegas knows what they're doing.  keep an eye on the bucks game tomorrow.


could you further explain that juice concept? if the line was at -13 (-108) vs +13 (-102), does it mean more people are betting on -13? would you bet +13?
 
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Posted: #514
vegas wants maximum $ (big secret huh?)  if the majority are betting at -11.5 (-110) they allowed the line to rise  2 pts. making people think the pacers was the better bet (they almost got me). they pushed the line to 13.5 and people started pounding the cats immediately dropping the line back to 12 than 11.5 while keeping the juice at -110 for pacers knowing people were willing to take them at 11.5. they obviously didnt want people on the cats today.
 
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Posted: #515
 good stuff... interested in hearing more... will be watching bucks game movement 2mor... thanks
 
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Posted: #516
Quote Originally Posted by BradyWearsUGGZ:

vegas wants maximum $ (big secret huh?)  if the majority are betting at -11.5 (-110) they allowed the line to rise  2 pts. making people think the pacers was the better bet (they almost got me). they pushed the line to 13.5 and people started pounding the cats immediately dropping the line back to 12 than 11.5 while keeping the juice at -110 for pacers knowing people were willing to take them at 11.5. they obviously didnt want people on the cats today.


thanks for answering. wouldnt -110 on pacers and +100 on cats make people bet on the cats today? or did you mean they brought it back down to -11.5 so that people would continue to bet on the pacers instead of the +13 cats? if so how does juice come into play? is there a strategy between -108 and -102 or it doesnt matter what the juice is at?
 
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Posted: #517
garbage i wrote a huge thing out and my phone died as i was writing it lol. summary of what i was writing GB game 66% public bets GB at (+3) line doesnt budge juice yet still remains at -110. line dips to +2.5 but only to that knowing people were on GB  and would most likely buy the .5 pt. people start betting SF line stays at 3. they were unwilling to dip the line even though GB was a big public favorite. gg 49ers.
 
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Posted: #518
people are like lemmings. we see -115 and think that must be the winning bet because everyone else is on it. when you see +110 does that make u think its the better bet?
 
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Posted: #519
Quote Originally Posted by BradyWearsUGGZ:

garbage i wrote a huge thing out and my phone died as i was writing it lol. summary of what i was writing GB game 66% public bets GB at (+3) line doesnt budge juice yet still remains at -110. line dips to +2.5 but only to that knowing people were on GB  and would most likely buy the .5 pt. people start betting SF line stays at 3. they were unwilling to dip the line even though GB was a big public favorite. gg 49ers.


oh i think i kind of get it. lets pretend the books know who is going to win. in this case 49ners. so for GB they are willing to drop the line to make more money on juice since people would buy the extra point, but when people started betting SF, it wouldnt budge at all. surprised the line for sf didnt move to -3.5 or more then
 
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Posted: #520
Quote Originally Posted by BradyWearsUGGZ:

people are like lemmings. we see -115 and think that must be the winning bet because everyone else is on it. when you see +110 does that make u think its the better bet?


haha lemmings good one. i remember playing that game. anyways, yes your right, -115 looks like a good one, and +110 means that team is probably the loser. does any of that correlate to whether or not vegas wants you to bet the -115 as a trap? ie. we should bet +110 since its a vegas trap
 
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Posted: #521
that would be reverse line movement and sharps would of been all over that garbage line white on rice. ravens dropped to +7.5 in some casinos vegas showed their cards way to early in that game.
 
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Posted: #522
Quote Originally Posted by BradyWearsUGGZ:

that would be reverse line movement and sharps would of been all over that garbage line white on rice. ravens dropped to +7.5 in some casinos vegas showed their cards way to early in that game.


thanks for answering. im going to look over todays game and see whats up. thanks again!
 
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Posted: #523

Hey Trin,

Here is what I am seeing so far tomorrow. Again I'm noticing more than scores and odds percentages mirror vegasinsider.com. I prefer using thespread.com

New Orleans open +7.5 at knicks (64%) now +7 (.5pt move)

bucks +2.5 at Toronto(66%) now +2 (.5 pt move)

GSW +5.5 (60%) at denver now +6 (.6 move)

Maryland +6.5 at Miami FL (55%) now +6 (.5pt move) however big difference between scores and odds, it has 85% on Maryland

There is a lot of heavy percentages on teams right now, and manu within our over 60% requirement however line hasnt budged/ will monitor and update tmr morning.

also looks like falcons have 55% of bets when it open at -3 with 104 juice however its down to -2.5 with -125

show pats -10 (65%) and is currently still the same

 
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Posted: #524
Not sure if completely correct but the best game for today if you're playing the RLM should be Trailblazers. OKC has 82% of the money and the line has moved from -5 to -4.5 and thats kind of strange dont you think? I'll try a bet at trailblazers +8 @ 1.5 just to be a little more safe.
 
 
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Posted: #525
Btw.. Knicks is now down 1 point with 70% on the money on them. Should also be a good play (Hornets +7)
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