Posted:
#451
I hate betting on Kobe!
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6-0 posted plays... Reverse line moves
Posted:
#455
It doesn't look like anything is changing in the NFL today. I'm seeing the same thing I've heen seeingvsince Tues, so kight as well call it early...
Today's early pick for both the system plays and the dougie bet is :
G Bay under 1 unit
I'll more than likely have some NBA plays later today.
Follow , fade or ignore, it's all good... bol all
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Posted:
#457
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:
It doesn't look like anything is changing in the NFL today. I'm seeing the same thing I've heen seeingvsince Tues, so kight as well call it early...
It doesn't look like anything is changing in the NFL today. I'm seeing the same thing I've heen seeingvsince Tues, so kight as well call it early...
Today's early pick for both the system plays and the dougie bet is :
G Bay under 1 unit
I'll more than likely have some NBA plays later today.
Follow , fade or ignore, it's all good... bol all
The total is creeping back up. From what I have seen the line started at 45 dropped to 44.5 and now it's back up to 45. over 80% of wagers are on the over.
Don't know if this really qualifies as RLM.
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Posted:
#459
Quote Originally Posted by baylor237:
i see some early rlm action..wash, mavs, kings, rockets?
i see some early rlm action..wash, mavs, kings, rockets?
To be honest, I'm questioning whether or not I want to take NBA plays today based on the system. I could be wrong, but if you think about the fact that this system works because we're following the big money, then I don't think there are plays today. let me explain why and explain a lot more of the system while I'm at it.
Let's just say there's usually 2 million on any particular NBA game and 1,000 tickets written. (fake numbers). The line opened at OKC -7.5 over NYK. Out of the 1,000 tix written 860 are on OKC, 86%, 140 are on NYK, 14%. Should the line move? NO!
If out of the 2 million 1.5 is on NYK and only 500k is on OKC, then that's where we would get RLM. The line would probably move to OKC -6.5. And we would see 86% on OKC but the line is favoring them. Lines move because of $, not %. This tells us that the 860 betting on OKC are small time bettors, but the 140 on NYK are the big money guys that are able to moves lines!
Phew! that's was a lot to get out...
So after rambling about the reasons we bet the way we do, the reason I don't like NBA tonight is that I feel all of the REAl big money guys that can move lines with a single bet are all on NFL playoffs. Maybe I'm just over thinking it. But I think if you wait until after the 1st playoff game, the guys that lost big will be looking to get back that $, either on the G bay game OR NBA tonight. If you guys have the time, I don't today, keep an eye on the percentages and line in the NBA and the G Bay game today BOTH before the Denver game, then again after the Denver game.
Anyone have thoughts on this? Maybe I'm just going crazy from my meds!
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Posted:
#460
Quote Originally Posted by DA_BOYS:
The total is creeping back up. From what I have seen the line started at 45 dropped to 44.5 and now it's back up to 45. over 80% of wagers are on the over.
Don't know if this really qualifies as RLM.
Thanks for checking that out... You're right, but if you look through this thread I've been seeing RLM on that Under all week!
Honestly, I think that's even better. Instead of being a step behind the sharps and letting the have it at 45, while we have to trail and get it at 44.5 or 44, we can lock it in at 45. If we were playing the under, we'd be losing out.
I'm locking in my 1 unit now... G Bay under 45. I don't know who I'm taking in the early game, maybe I'll just wait until the second half. But whoever i do take, i'm gonna parlay with G Bay under...BOL
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Posted:
#461
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:
Thanks for checking that out... You're right, but if you look through this thread I've been seeing RLM on that Under all week!
Honestly, I think that's even better. Instead of being a step behind the sharps and letting the have it at 45, while we have to trail and get it at 44.5 or 44, we can lock it in at 45. If we were playing the under, we'd be losing out.
I'm locking in my 1 unit now... G Bay under 45. I don't know who I'm taking in the early game, maybe I'll just wait until the second half. But whoever i do take, i'm gonna parlay with G Bay under...BOL
Correction: If we were playing the OVER, we''d be losing out
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Posted:
#465
Trini,
based on system
i played ucla +3.5. 62% of bets were on colorado -3.5 yet line dropped to -2.5. luckily my line is a local and gets sent out hour before so i locked in the 3.5
Right now a good system game Texas arlington opened at -4.5 at texas state with 76% of bets yet line is now -3. i will be locking in Texas state +4 as well as your GB under
looking at Wyoming game- opened as pick em with 68% on them however line is now Nevada -1.5
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Posted:
#469
fyi as stated. all sites show different public percentages: i have been using thespread.com and will also compare with scores and odds.
IE harvard opened up -12 at dartmouth with 71 percent on them however line is now -10
scores and odds shows a 51% 49% with the line at -10
Its probably a lay off since the percentages are the drastic
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