Tritesy's Oscar Predictions

Every year at my office we compete in an Oscars office pool and for the past two years I have lost by one point... one lousy point.

I figure I'm due for a win so I thought I would share a few of my predictions and see if I can't help everyone find some good value for tonight's show.
Sports Interaction has odds for all of the major categories so here are my predictions for each:

Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire (-400)

Best Costume Design: The Duchess (-189) - Movies with elaborate costumes are always a good bet to take home this category.

Best Original Screenplay: Milk (-152) - Milk could be considered for Best Picture but will have to settle for this.

Best Music Score: Slumdog Millionaire (-250) - Slumdog will most likely grab this one but if you're looking for a dark horse you could take a chance on Wall-E at +500.

Best Original Song: Jai Ho (-200) - Wouldn't be surprised though if Down To Earth (+162) grabbed this one.

Best Foreign Language Film: Waltz With Bashir (-200)

Best Director: Danny Boyle (-1000) - Probably not worth putting anything down on this one at this price.

Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz (-143) - I figure Cruz is due since she probably should have won for her role in Volver. This category is always the most likely to supply the biggest upset of the night so if you are looking for some value put some cash down on Viola Davis (+550) for her role in Doubt.

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger - I guess Sports Interaction figured there wasn't much point in putting up odds for this one since the award has probably already been handed over to Ledger's daughter Matilda. If anyone else wins this one you can expect to hear the only boos of the night.

Best Actress: Kate Winslet (-400) - She was probably nominated for the wrong movie but she should still take home the trophy. She's 0-5 so far in her Oscar career so expect her to finally break that slump.

Best Actor: Sean Penn (+187) - This is probably the most difficult decision I had to make this year. I would really like to see Mickey Rourke win. Both gave great performances and deserve to win but my gut is telling me to go with Penn. 

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire (-1000) - I don't think anyone is expecting Slumdog to lose this one but if you're looking for a 'Crash Like' upset then take a chance on Milk (+2000).

Here's another one available at Sports Interaction that I think is the best bet of the night:

Kate Winslet cries while accepting Oscar (+100) - This is just too easy. Did anyone see her at the Golden Globes. She cried like her dog just died. Cry away Kate, cry away.

Good luck tonight.