Posted:
#1
First, the easy part, Locks - Bridges, Waltz, Mo'Nique, Avatar (FX), Up (Animated). Problem is the books know that that so odds are
outrageous, -30000 for Avatar (FX) at Pinnacle 
. Though Bridges was reasonable at -500 when I saw lines first went up.
Heavy Fav - Up (Orig Score), Avatar (Art Dir)
I went big on Director cause odds did not match chance of winning, IMO. Daniels has no chance. Reitman is too young and he'll get his prize for something else, more on this later. Some spinning by Harvey Weinstein that QT is due for win but that's WAY too early in his career for that, besides he's already got one for Screenplay. Cameron (like him or not) did a HELL of a job. Who would have thought that Avatar would top Titanic at the box office (I would have put it at -500 for No before release), the 3D FX sets a new standard, but...
Bigelow has too way many things going for her. She's dominated all the awards/best-of-list/etc except for Globes. But Globes is decided by 90 people and they are all FOREIGN journalists who not one gets to vote for the Oscar. She's a female and no female has ever won Dir, she's the 3rd nominated. One thing you can depend on the for the Oscar is they love to make statements as it give them favorable press. When you're a favorite going in and you're due for gender/race/career achievement/etc, you're going to win. Scorcese did it, Halle Berry did it, ROTK swept because they waited on first 2 before giving it all awards on 3rd, Bridges will for this yr. All the other Dir nominations has said she deserve the win. Cameron has already won and right or wrong, his acceptance speech rubbed the Academy the wrong way the last time, so I don't see them giving him back to back wins, no one has ever done this, not even Coppola even tho GF 1 and 2 won Best Pic. She has played the game by hitting the circuit to promote her nomination.
All the bruhaha about THL producer email is not going to rub off on her, maybe for Best Pic.
MB still got -420 for her for decent $, by far best odds out there now.
. Though Bridges was reasonable at -500 when I saw lines first went up.Heavy Fav - Up (Orig Score), Avatar (Art Dir)
I went big on Director cause odds did not match chance of winning, IMO. Daniels has no chance. Reitman is too young and he'll get his prize for something else, more on this later. Some spinning by Harvey Weinstein that QT is due for win but that's WAY too early in his career for that, besides he's already got one for Screenplay. Cameron (like him or not) did a HELL of a job. Who would have thought that Avatar would top Titanic at the box office (I would have put it at -500 for No before release), the 3D FX sets a new standard, but...
Bigelow has too way many things going for her. She's dominated all the awards/best-of-list/etc except for Globes. But Globes is decided by 90 people and they are all FOREIGN journalists who not one gets to vote for the Oscar. She's a female and no female has ever won Dir, she's the 3rd nominated. One thing you can depend on the for the Oscar is they love to make statements as it give them favorable press. When you're a favorite going in and you're due for gender/race/career achievement/etc, you're going to win. Scorcese did it, Halle Berry did it, ROTK swept because they waited on first 2 before giving it all awards on 3rd, Bridges will for this yr. All the other Dir nominations has said she deserve the win. Cameron has already won and right or wrong, his acceptance speech rubbed the Academy the wrong way the last time, so I don't see them giving him back to back wins, no one has ever done this, not even Coppola even tho GF 1 and 2 won Best Pic. She has played the game by hitting the circuit to promote her nomination.
All the bruhaha about THL producer email is not going to rub off on her, maybe for Best Pic.
MB still got -420 for her for decent $, by far best odds out there now.
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