My Academy Award Wagers

Best Actress- Winslet -146

I really love this bet.  Kate has been an Oscar darling as far as nominations but has yet to win one.  I think they changed that this year.  Leo and Jolie are in the category of "just getting nominated surpassed expectations"  Streep is nominated because she is a legend, but her performance was not universally  lauded by critics.  Hathaway was very good, but the fact that her film wasn't universally loved and that it came out so long ago is going to hurt her.  Kate wins this one.



Best Picture:  Slumdog Millionaire -510


U know what, sometimes you just gotta take the high favorite when you are this certain.  I'll take 100 free dollars just for having the s to risk 510



May add one or two more.  I think theres value in Viola Davis for supporting actress.  If they put up odds for Heath im laying the juice i dont care if its -100000.   Also would do the same for Wall E for animated picture

Im not sure Kate Winslet will win,they nominated her for the wrong film,she should have been nominated for "Revolutionary Road" not "The Reader"


The Reader was one of the worst films ever and Kate does not deserve to win for that film

Anne Hathaway looks good odds,the academy loves people who hide there good looks and play uglier roles



Halle Berry laid herself bare in Monster's Ball
Charlize Theron's transformation in Monster was extreme.
Nicole Kidman played Vigina Woolf wearing a prosthetic


And Hilary Swank has taken home two oscars by embracing roles that play against the stereotypical perception of feminine beauty (for Million Dollar Baby and Boy's Don't Cry





Anne Hathaway is worth a shot

be careful laying huge odds with the oscars.  the oscar winners don't always line up with who takes the gold at the sag and the golden globes.  there is no such thing as a "slam dunk" on best picture or best actor / actress.  the most memorable in recent memory was brokeback mountain vs crash.  brokeback cleaned up everywhere except the oscars best picture.  everyone was calling it for best picture banking on a landslide.  bb was a heavy favorite going into oscar night everywhere, crash won at +500. 

i'm 35 and have made alot of wagers over the last 15 years.  that one still hurts. 

^^^  Ditto on BB and that loss will haunt me for a long time too.  Looking back on BB, there was some sign that it was in trouble, mainly voters who said publicly they will not vote for it bc it's a gay movie.  During the pre-show, heard more than one journalists who have talked to voters and they predicted there could be Crash upset.

I'm thinking it's dif this yr as SM is along the line of Crash as it's feel-good movie and leading coming in.  Hopefully, that smear campaign about the under-paid actors for SM won't effect voters this time.

There are some "locks" in Oscar though, Ledger this yr along w/ J Hudson/C. Theron (I cleaned up on this one at pretty damn good odds)/3rd LOTR/J. Bardem/etc.

cali what makes u think it looks like now rourke will win?

im thinkin if anything he opened as a big fav after the golden globes but now penn is kinda gaining steam.  few things:

a.  the academy is very conservative.  they know if rourke wins hell come up and curse and be vulgar.  they also are probably turned off by his new wrestling career.

b.  Milk isnt going to win best pic, so this is the academy's best shot at honoring that film.

c.  After Ledger and Brokeback were fucked over the Brokeback Mountain year, the Academy may see this as an attempt to show ppl they are not homophobic...they were harshly criticized after that year


personally i loved the wrestler and i have my fingers crossed for mickey...but those factors i mentioned are making me not bet my money on it


usually i bet 3 bets during the oscars...this year just these....and slumdog is up to -770 and winslet up to -260

Those fucks better give Ledger the oscar

YO - Milk is likely to win for Orig Screenplay, so letting Milk win at least one would not be reason for picking Penn.  If there wasn't so much love for Penn from the his peers, I would bet on Rourke but sitting out on this one, for now.

My fav bet so far, "Is Streep going to wear Chanel Couture?" at +275 (bet no longer available).   She has already said she won't wear a designer dress but picking out from the rack/closet herself.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/entertainment/view/407980/1/.html

Given she wore a non-designer dress to SAG and won, don't know why she would change now.