YTD (DIAMONDBACKS GAMES): 11-5-2 ATS
Probably my WORST weekend of sports wagering ever, salvaged only by hitting a monster parlay yesterday, but little relief. About the only thing that went right last week was the baseball playoffs and luckily I didn't post games in CFB and take others down with me. A 1-3 ATS in the NFL ties my worst posting day in the forum for years, so hopefully an aberration. Now onto baseball...When the series began, I said the Diamondbacks would win this in 5 games. Some have jumped off the bandwagon maybe scared of muscles they see on other players in Rangers uniforms? After a heartbreaking game 1 loss, they came back in grand fashion for game 2 and blew the cover off the ball. They now move home, where they are 3-1 in the playoffs vs. how the Rangers have fared at home. Of course, the Rangers have gone 8-0 on the road in the playoffs, an impressive record to say the least, but one that will end tonight.
The reason the Diamondbacks will win tonight is they are in a much bigger ballpark than what the Rangers are used to playing in, and with the roof closed the ball doesn't fly quite as well. The Dbacks also have found their HR stroke again but I don't think it's going to be HR's that win or lose this game, as we saw against the big bats of the Dodgers and Phillies. Home crowd WILL make a difference.
Brandon Pfaadt has been awesome over the past month, even more than awesome in the playoffs. I'm guessing most people will see the name Scherzer and think mismatch. And while Scherzer has been HORRIBLE in this postseason, he's actually mediocre overall, going 7-7 with an ERA in the mid 3's. But he's older, and his fastball is not quite where it once was, and, he is not very good holding runners in scoring position.. This I think is one of the keys to tonights game.
The Diamondbacks have been relentless on the base paths, not being caught in I think 17 straight attempts. What that does is put pressure on the pitcher, the defense, and makes them consider things they otherwise wouldn't with a runner in scoring position. Moreover, the Diamondbacks are the league leaders in sacrifices, and have hit incredibly well with RISP.
Lastly, the defense for the Diamondbacks as we all know, is one of the best all time in the HISTORY of MLB. So, if they dont' give up the big bombs, they usually won't allow baserunners that shouldn't be on, limiting damage. Paul Sewald was told by many top brass on other teams that he was tipping his slider, so I don't expect that will be the case if he's called upon tonight. The Rangers bullpen was super solid until last game, so I'm curious to see how they fare tonight.