STL (Lynn) 125/200-- Lance Lynn has been solid for STL so far this season (13-6, 3.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 145/57 K/BB ratio) and the Cards have to glad to have him on the mound today in a crucial match-up against the Pirates. He has been extremely successful in 7 career starts against PIT (4-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .211 BAA), and was at his best his last outing against them: 6.0 IP, 1ER on 3 Hits with 7 K's. Lynn has been an absolute monster at home this year (8-2, 2.78 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .221 BAA) and I see him continuing his home dominance, as well as his success against the Pirates today in this one. On the opposing mound, AJ Burnett has great numbers this year (2.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 149/51 K/BB ratio) but not the record (5-8) to show for it, and that is largely due to lack of run-support. Lynn (13-6) and (8-1 at home) does not have that problem, because he has a much better hitting team behind him and I believe this could be the difference in this one. As Lynn has been extremely effective at home this year, Burnett has been very shaky on the road (2-5, 3.60 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) as he has proved to be uncomfortable pitching away from Pittsburgh. I have to edge STL in this one, even without Molina, and I believe PIT will be thin in RF due to injuries (Snider on DL, Tabata - Questionable with flu-like symptoms). Lynn pitches another great home start, Burnett continues his inconsistency on the road. Cards win.
*STL Hits Right-handers (Burnett) BETTER than Left-handers:
--- (5.42 R/9, .280 avg. vs Rights) > (3.64 R/9, .234 avg vs Lefties)
*PIT Hits Right-handers (Lynn) WORSE than Left-handers:
--- (3.84 R/9, .237 avg. vs Rights) < (4.02 R/9, .254 avg vs Lefties)
*STL is 38-15 in last 53 games vs. right-handed starter.
*STL is 41-20 in last 61 games following a loss.
*STL is 12-3 in Lynn's last 15 starts following team loss.
*STL is 36-13 in Lynn's last 49 starts with total set at 7.0-8.5
*PIT is 1-4 in last 5 starts vs right-handed starter.
*PIT is 1-5 in last 6 road games.
*PIT is 0-8 in Burnett's last 8 starts as underdog.
*PIT is 4-9 in Burnett's last 13 starts following team loss in previous.