SP outliers 2025

Howzit going, hopefully tremendous as May weather reaches wherever you are  I’m looking to focus on an angle I picked up last season through watching Fubah.    I’m not the best with putting thoughts on paper and it takes me a lot of extra time to type, spell check etc. so hang with me. So an outlier to me is similar to regression to the mean…example: Roger Clemens is 15-2, has won 5 straight and therefore could be due for a poor outing (which is human nature, everyone has a bad day at work once out of 20). Since the Rocket has been on fire you’re going to be paying extra tax in vig and backing a SP who’s over due for a tough day at the office. You don’t need to necessarily fade Clemens but what you should consider is not backing him as many in the public will do.  There’s no reason or value in a -240 Ace overdue. The ego of a pitcher is interesting…if it’s working why change it up, stay the road. If it’s not working, hell your ego is doing everything possible to find improvement.  

I won’t have the bandwidth to go nuts with this, but will give what I can: 

undefeated currently and could have an overvalued line next outing:  

Singer    
Mahle    
Fried   
Gray    
Luzardo  

A guy who struck me as due for a loss using a different approach is Canning and I will fade him today… 

And another that caught my attention… these dudes are over due for a win, pitching much better than there record and thus might even get some team support in the field and at bat.  
Martinez    
Flaherty 

All just a work in progress, please don’t follow etc.  I’m an NCAAB Handicapper just having fun this summer with small wagers.

jwoods 

Away we go, first play, and always a simple unit for recording:

Mets -147   
Tigers -103    
Reds -118

  

JW

A correction….Fading Channing, NYM 

will be on Nationals +145 

Today final final:

Nats +145   
Reds   -118 
Tigers -103

not smart to fade canning and mets today. They will split the series.

Love the Reds (Martinez) angle. He has faced SF 2x, MIL, SEA, all teams that far well against RHP. SF 2x and this team finds ways to win regardless who they play.

Flaherty (DET)- again has faced a decent schedule against good teams. LAD, NYY, and SD when they had a full roster, and MIL middle tier. Compound that will DET offense vs RHP, great play- Just DETs home vs Away numbers are 180 of each other-- Under could also be a play

Williams allows a lot of hits, and some NYM players have great numbers against him. And after last nights implosion, NYM should have a strong desire to win this game, Players and Coaches alike.

Good luck