Runs+Hits+Errors Best Bet on the Board...

Not sure who needs to hear this, but I’ve been testing something with a few buddies that’s been printing money so far.

Instead of betting game totals (Under), we’ve been targeting Runs + Hits + Errors (RHE) Under. It’s obviously correlated, but in practice it’s been way more forgiving and, from what we’ve seen, more profitable.

What’s been happening a lot:

• Game total pushes or barely goes over
• But RHE still lands comfortably under

So you lose or push the traditional Under… but still cash the RHE Under.

We’ve logged 50+ games over the past week and a consistent pattern is showing:
If a game goes Under, RHE Under almost always hits too
But the reverse isn’t true, RHE Under has been winning even when totals lose

A couple examples from today:

• NYY vs SEA
  Total: 7
  Final: 8 (Over)
  RHE line: 23.5
  Result: 22 (RHE Under hits with room)
• SF vs SD
  Total: 8
  Final: 8 (Push)
  RHE line: 25
  Result: 24 (RHE Under hits)

So even in “bad” total outcomes, RHE still cashes.

We’ve already made a few thousand running this, but wanted at least a week of data before saying anything. Still early season, but the edge looks real.

Caesars Sports offers this bet and that's what we primarily use as we live in Vegas, it's a re-skinned William Hill, same odds and interface, so WH probably offers it too and I know BetOnline does as well.

TL;DR:
RHE Under seems to outperform standard Under bets in a lot of spots. You’ll often win RHE in games where the total pushes or barely loses. Haven’t seen the inverse happen nearly as often (yet).

Curious if anyone else has been tracking this or has any input to share. We're going to continue pressing this with bigger bets this week 

Good luck everyone! May all your bets cash!

Added: Batting averages are at near historic lows. Pitchers throw harder than ever before, and breaking balls and sliders are eating batters alive. You see it every night. It looks like books have been adjusting totals a bit lower, but still doesn't look like it might be enough. I've never seen so many batters averaging in the .100s and low .200s.

Judge is batting .150 and Ohtani is batting .200, and you have these usually average players batting hysterical .050s and .060s, it's comical but I love it.

Get it while the gettin's good boys. I won't reveal what apps we use or how we determine which unders to bet, but anyone real bettor with half a brain and an average understanding of the game can figure it out just as well I'm sure.