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Quality Write Up ~ SFG vs WSH Monday

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

It is not ME that the bookies are taking. I work from a true probability standpoint and they don't. If you have been programming for them for 10 years you should have an appreciation of how lines are slanted so bettors will play their misconceptions versus the true probability. Before thinking of me as a fool you may also wish to do a little research. I made a living at this for 17 years in Las Vegas and have posted 8 straight winning years on Covers. Some great, some slim, but +$ every year. There are not 500 people in the world that can say that and only one of them posts on Covers. Retirement is great, but when I told you you are fighting a culture here, I knew exactly what I was talking about.
    

Key , I don't think you are a fool,  I appreciate your point of view,   who said that?   im very happy you have won money, (maybe 1 out of 100 gamblers do that in the william hill database and those that do are immediately cut off from gambling after $10k in winnings)    

Yah I see what you are saying,  I cant even post information here without having some moron conflate a spelling mistakes with being a losing "bettor", and then following up with saying they are "intelligent"    I see you are correct.
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:


thanks for your opinion but you are not a professional better in the slightest.   thanks for your negative attitude!   

 
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Posted: #53
by the way key, id love to connect with you on linked in if you are a winner,  do you keep your id private these days? 
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:


Key , I don't think you are a fool,  I appreciate your point of view,   who said that?   im very happy you have won money, (maybe 1 out of 100 gamblers do that in the william hill database and those that do are immediately cut off from gambling after $10k in winnings)    

Yah I see what you are saying,  I cant even post information here without having some moron conflate a spelling mistakes with being a losing "bettor", and then following up with saying they are "intelligent"    I see you are correct.

ok ......you should stop before you put both feet in your mouth. You have completely lost all credibility here..........it's obvious you are extremely new and lack experience on a grand scale. Good luck with everything down the road.

Alien-1..........out

 
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Posted: #55
Wow flash, your post shows how moronic and stupid these people on Covers really are. You provide good information and insight from your own angle, yet these people sit here and criticize. I never bash but Biggest moron award goes to Key_Element for saying intelligent writeups have no place here. Some of these jokesters aren't about winning money apparently. SF GIANTS GOOOO
 
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Posted: #56
Whew thank god.   Why you are even on this thread if you dont like whats being said is beyond me.     

 
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Posted: #57
Haha, that guy actually believes that bookies simply make money by being a brokerage, what a joke. You think the lines just set themselves after they are posted? They start at a certain point Mr. Key, and based on that set point, that sets public opinion and many other things.
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by LakeShowTime:

Wow flash, your post shows how moronic and stupid these people on Covers really are. You provide good information and insight from your own angle, yet these people sit here and criticize. I never bash but Biggest moron award goes to Key_Element for saying intelligent writeups have no place here. Some of these jokesters aren't about winning money apparently. SF GIANTS GOOOO

I know bro,  but Key does have a good point and I respect his congenial attitude and good will.   The problem is he hasnt worked for william hill, matchbook or pinnacle in any form and doesn't get that their corporate strategy is "losers only" with pinnacle being the odd one out; mostly because marco blume is god damn good at his job.  (but you have to respect a winner, either by cutting him off lol or giving him a fair shake.)  I respect Key as a winner.

my linked-in is wholly open to connect with anyone where they can see i'm in the industry.  just PM me.    All I want to do is explore the other side of sports betting with great people in a good forum.
 
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Posted: #59

Quote Originally Posted by LakeShowTime:

Wow flash, your post shows how moronic and stupid these people on Covers really are. You provide good information and insight from your own angle, yet these people sit here and criticize. I never bash but Biggest moron award goes to Key_Element for saying intelligent writeups have no place here. Some of these jokesters aren't about winning money apparently. SF GIANTS GOOOO

 

Yeah cuz KeyElement just doesn't care about winning money. God some of you here are just so dumb

His point about write-ups being worthless is that most of the crowd here doesn't care about write-ups, its above their mentality. They wanna hear about LOCKS, and INSIDE INFO, and pro "betters" like this guy. Talking about probabilities and expected value on this forum is a waste of time for the most part because this is basically the horse racing crowd betting sports. The guys who think they can beat the line because they watch sportscenter everyday. Guys who think 60% is attainable and that somewhere out there is this secret syndicate that just make MILLIONS and theyre just hoping someday they can be pat of it. That's what he meant

But nice job calling out a solid longterm poster like KeyElement and basically taking sides with this lying, wanna be newb FlashDiamond. You guys are idiots

 

 
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Posted: #60
Also that other genius said you can't be a professional by betting 250 per game? Definitely a genius.
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by LakeShowTime:

Wow flash, your post shows how moronic and stupid these people on Covers really are. You provide good information and insight from your own angle, yet these people sit here and criticize. I never bash but Biggest moron award goes to Key_Element for saying intelligent writeups have no place here. Some of these jokesters aren't about winning money apparently. SF GIANTS GOOOO
Let's get this straight. Since you have never been a reader-commenter in my threads you probably don't know that until a couple months ago I posted the BEST write ups and statistical probability on this site. The end result was a few guys said thanks and the bashers only came back once or twice, until they realized the futility of bashing intelligence, ability and experience. What I saw very little of was guys that actually wanted to study what I was saying and pointing out for their own knowledge. Covers is like a university with 100,000 professors and 100 students, because EVERYONE KNOWS EVERYTHING, and has no need to wonder why they are losing. They are getting screwed by managers, umpires, bullpens, stupid and lazy players and "THE FIX', but there is nothing wrong with their knowledge of sports handicapping, odds and probability. I just plain got tired of the whole thing pal, but if you want an intelligent write up go look at what I took the time to do today. If this guy survives around here he will soon learn the futility of write ups. It is a culture at Covers, and there is no known cure. 

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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by Carpinteria:

 

Yeah cuz KeyElement just doesn't care about winning money. God some of you here are just so dumb

His point about write-ups being worthless is that most of the crowd here doesn't care about write-ups, its above their mentality. They wanna hear about LOCKS, and INSIDE INFO, and pro "betters" like this guy. Talking about probabilities and expected value on this forum is a waste of time for the most part because this is basically the horse racing crowd betting sports. The guys who think they can beat the line because they watch sportscenter everyday. Guys who think 60% is attainable and that somewhere out there is this secret syndicate that just make MILLIONS and theyre just hoping someday they can be pat of it. That's what he meant

But nice job calling out a solid longterm poster like KeyElement and basically taking sides with this lying, wanna be newb FlashDiamond. You guys are idiots

 


lake show:  here is the guy you need to disrespect.   terrible attitude.  sense of superiority like he is matthew benham but he has never won a dime in his life long term.
 
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Posted: #63
So Mr. Carpinteria, a "solid longterm poster" on a site that doesn't care about probabilities and expected value, how significant of a poster is he? And also he says the culture can't be changed, that shows a horrible attitude to winning and to change. I'm not sure what you meant by the secret syndicate comment. It's pretty obvious the poster didn't get his information for sportscenter. 

Are you on SF or Washington? Do you have any logic as to why?
 
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Posted: #64
Guys who think 60% is attainable and that somewhere out there is this secret syndicate that just make MILLIONS and theyre just hoping someday they can be pat of it. That's what he meant

NBA:  Bet every pinnacle closing line favorite and you will win 70% of your bets and still lose money.    -17.19 units.

the problem these days is that guys like this don't have a database like me filled with stats and just have no idea what they are even talking about.     they just read a few Haralabos Voulgaris interviews and think they know what they are talking about.
 
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Posted: #65
Flash, I'm not sure why you're bashing me, and now that Key has explained itself, i appreciate and understand what he has to say. I don't come on here often, i was simply defending the explanations. Good luck everybody.
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:


Key , I don't think you are a fool,  I appreciate your point of view,   who said that?   im very happy you have won money, (maybe 1 out of 100 gamblers do that in the william hill database and those that do are immediately cut off from gambling after $10k in winnings)    

Yah I see what you are saying,  I cant even post information here without having some moron conflate a spelling mistakes with being a losing "bettor", and then following up with saying they are "intelligent"    I see you are correct.
In an earlier post you said I had no idea what the books were doing to bilk me out of my money. That was presumptive and malicious on your part. At this time I have no inclination to communicate with you off the board. If you seem respectable after a couple hundred posts maybe that will change, but it doesn't look like we are off to a good start.

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Posted: #67
I am not sure where you got the sense of superiority thing either, I am looking for an objective, open minded, and fair, non bashing place.
 
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Posted: #68
Key I can't see your posts on your page sir, thanks.
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:

Guys who think 60% is attainable and that somewhere out there is this secret syndicate that just make MILLIONS and theyre just hoping someday they can be pat of it. That's what he meant

NBA:  Bet every pinnacle closing line favorite and you will win 70% of your bets and still lose money.    -17.19 units.

the problem these days is that guys like this don't have a database like me filled with stats and just have no idea what they are even talking about.     they just read a few Haralabos Voulgaris interviews and think they know what they are talking about.

 

I was referring to the crowd of fools who think 60% is an attainable number on basic -110 bets. So you then post a stat about NBA ML favorites and talk about how most don't have your database and blah blah blah. Basically absolutely nothing to do with what I actually said

 

God what a waste of time you are. Enjoy the fairy tales guys. Like I said, in a week or so (month tops) you'll be gone. Also, HUGE LOL at trying to hook up with Key off the board. EL OH FUKN EL

Good luck all

 

 
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Posted: #70
What are your guys opinion on paying for picks then? Can it be worth it? I get these free picks from this site i recently found, since i recently got back into wagering and this guy has been like right 13 out of the last 15 days i have signed up with him. I should have tailed him.
 
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Posted: #71
Carpinteria, i feel stupid for backing this guy up, but it wasn't him but more about the idea. I don't post or am on here often, good luck all
 
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Posted: #72
I dont bet baseball but wanted to see what was being said about tonights game on here.  Flash just want to give you props  (not that you need them or even care though)  I have been making sports predictions backing them with money for over 20+ years.  

I just simply wanted to let you know I appreciate threads like this on Covers.  Once upon a time in a land far far behind this is what covers was.  Be it right wrong or indifferent my point I want to make is that this is exactly what is needed.  The first forum I ever visited A guy named Ace-Ace posted inside information he had from watching teams practice for a bowl game.  It was a MAC Conference team that was favored.  The QB had broken hand and couldnt throw the ball.  It was kept a secret and the line kept raising.  Well he posted his play and I did something I never do.  I followed him blindly.  He didnt tell anyone what was up he just said watch the game it will be very obvious.  It was and they played horribly.  As you said these forums are here for players to help players win against the man... Now it seems like a bunch of kids with no respect for themselves or anyone else throwing out garbage and opinons bragging if they win never coming back if they lose....Maybe 1 in 15 or 20 posts have any substance.  I applaud you for your insight and willingness to share.  I apologize for cluttering your thread since you dont know me and I have not offered any game advice.....With that being said I just wanted to say thanks...I wished there were more like you on here.  I may just take a stand on Giants.  If I win I will be back to say thanks..  BOL to you  Thanks again for TRYING to make a difference
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

In an earlier post you said I had no idea what the books were doing to bilk me out of my money. That was presumptive and malicious on your part. At this time I have no inclination to communicate with you off the board. If you seem respectable after a couple hundred posts maybe that will change, but it doesn't look like we are off to a good start.


fair enough,  just wanted to know your name in real life.   thats a big claim to make,  Im pretty sure i'd know you or have at least met you at G2E or ICE if that was true.   Oh well.   You were dead right about the culture,  I've never wasted more time in my life defending my position.   have a great day.
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by Raider63:

I dont bet baseball but wanted to see what was being said about tonights game on here.  Flash just want to give you props  (not that you need them or even care though)  I have been making sports predictions backing them with money for over 20+ years.  

I just simply wanted to let you know I appreciate threads like this on Covers.  Once upon a time in a land far far behind this is what covers was.  Be it right wrong or indifferent my point I want to make is that this is exactly what is needed.  The first forum I ever visited A guy named Ace-Ace posted inside information he had from watching teams practice for a bowl game.  It was a MAC Conference team that was favored.  The QB had broken hand and couldnt throw the ball.  It was kept a secret and the line kept raising.  Well he posted his play and I did something I never do.  I followed him blindly.  He didnt tell anyone what was up he just said watch the game it will be very obvious.  It was and they played horribly.  As you said these forums are here for players to help players win against the man... Now it seems like a bunch of kids with no respect for themselves or anyone else throwing out garbage and opinons bragging if they win never coming back if they lose....Maybe 1 in 15 or 20 posts have any substance.  I applaud you for your insight and willingness to share.  I apologize for cluttering your thread since you dont know me and I have not offered any game advice.....With that being said I just wanted to say thanks...I wished there were more like you on here.  I may just take a stand on Giants.  If I win I will be back to say thanks..  BOL to you  Thanks again for TRYING to make a difference

thanks raider,   I have been through this so so so much working in the industry that I now have thicker skin then a rhino.  I never knew bettors were so hostile and angry!  I will continue to drop down great information and be a happy guy.  feel free to connect!  
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by LakeShowTime:

Haha, that guy actually believes that bookies simply make money by being a brokerage, what a joke. You think the lines just set themselves after they are posted? They start at a certain point Mr. Key, and based on that set point, that sets public opinion and many other things.
Wow, you just can't bite off a big enough chunk, can you? Careful puppy, you're going to choke. The opening line is not a figment of someone's imagination. It maybe starts somewhere near true probability, then is adjusted for probable public response. Penalties to the favorite usually include home field, public popularity, regional preference, trends (which the public loves), streaks and a few other factors. After that only ONE thing moves the line and that is MONEY. The books have respect for MONEY, not any of the generally accepted public myths or power rankings or any other such thing. If you think they throw a number out there to attract $10 bettors because they know the other side will win, then you have little experience, none of good, and choose to believe books want to gamble against you. Long story short; there are millions of very serious dollars lurking out there that can't wait to punch a bad number. It is a risk no businessman would take, and bookmaking is a business for them, not a part time recreational activity like it is for you.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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