I think I am 3-9 this year with the ML/RL plays.
I think it was 2/3 in one series, 1/3 in one series and 0/3 in the other series.
So, I am up about 1 unit or so on those plays overall.
About 30% of MLB games are 1-run games. Couple that with the fact that about 60% of the time the favorite will win.
So, I like to see the matchup be something that is more than 18% likely to happen, based on the various things I consider in a matchup/game/series.
I like for the numbers to be as close to -150/+150 as possible.
This game is very close at -150/+165 and would work just on those numbers.
But it has to be a situation where I see it as a +EV play. I do not see this matchup/game/series as a +EV play.
I will also discard some games in the series because of other issues, like, in my opinion, a pitching mismatch or great versus bad current form.
Also, a game predicted to be a low-scoring game and series helps to decide this as well. Because if it is low-scoring it is more likely to be a close game.
On the ML:
CLV 34-37 and +1.10 units away and +1.44% ROI
TB 38-33 and -4.92 units at home and -5.09% ROI
On the RL:
CLV 40-30 and +3.00 units away and +2.97% ROI
TB 29-42 and -12.65 units at home and -14.88% ROI
This matchup does not look like +EV to me with those numbers.
Not to mention they are 0-4 this year on this sort of play. You would just be better off taking the underdog because they have covered 2 out of the 4.
To me the MIL/PIT or the HOU/TEX maybe would have a better opportunity for something like that this weekend.
One side note is the likelihood of covering the +2.5 RL can work out as well. Like the SD/COL or the PHL/MIA matchups. It is just dicey to make sure all of the things that you might see as +EV actually all come together with the way MLB has changed lately with pitching changes so often, etc.
I know that is a far, far more detailed answer than what you wanted.
But that is the gist of it.
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