MY FINAL PICKS FOR TODAY IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE W/ MORE DETAILED WRITEUPS

NYY -110 - The reason why they are on top is because Nova is on the mound and they are on fire.  I mentioned before that they add a crazy amount of run support every time he takes the mound.  Delgado is getting a bit too much love with this line.  Nova only had 3 bad starts away all of last year.  Delgado has had major control issues this season (his minor league stats support that as well) and the Yankees bats will take advantage of that.  In addition to that, the Braves have been a bit inconsistent with their scoring, so you really do not know what to expect there.

LAA -107- The Angels are the hottest hitting team now and look like they can't be stopped offensively.  Capuano has had his two worst outings of the year recently, since his first start, and things won't get better against this Angels lineup.  His career ERA is 4.28, WHIP is 1.34, BAA .262.  Law of averages says he will most likely regress towards his career norms, considering he is 33 years old.  This game, he will show his true colors and probably get roped.  Garrett Richards is a solid, young prospect who just came off of a great first start for this year.  He will have some confidence coming into this game, especially knowing the run support they can provide.  Should be a much easier win for the Angels than Vegas thinks.

LAA/LAD Over 7.5 +105 - I have this next cause I really think the Angels will put up more than 5 runs themselves when all is said and done.  Not really sure why the line is where it is at.  Too much confidence in Capuano...  He's been great this year, but seeing what he has done most recently, I don't think that will last for long. 6-4 Halos take it down.

NYY/ATL Over 9 EV - The one thing that concerns me is that there is supposed to be thunderstorms tonight.  Both teams should put some runs on each other regardless.  Nova has not held a team scoreless this year, and even though the Braves are a little inconsistent with their scoring, they should be able to get to them a bit. I certainly don't trust Delgado against the Yanks.  We may see this get real close to the over before the bullpen even comes in.  Just hope the weather isn't absolutely horrible. 7-4 in favor of Yankees.

BOS -110 - After some consideration, I believe this may be a little better than the under.  Boston's bats have been lively and Miami's have not recently.  Beckett is more prone to getting blown up than Josh Johnson, however, they have both pitched well recently, and I am going to give the advantage the the Bo Sox bats.

BOS/MIA UNDER 8 -120 - This is always a tough one since Boston could put up a ton of runs in any given game.  Miami, despite their recent struggles has the ability to do the same.  I just think that both pitchers will have their A game today.  If they can go deep enough, the bullpens will really have to blow it to hit this over.  Hoping for a 5-2 game in favor of Boston.

TOR/WASH UNDER 8 -105 - I've never really trusted Edwin Jackson, but do have to admit he has been pretty decent this year.  Morrow can be downright dominating (better away though).  I'm thinking this one becomes somewhat of a pitcher's duel though.  Last time Jackson played Toronto, he was on the White Sox and gave up a 3 run homer to Bautista in the first, which I really don't blame him for since Bautista smoked everyone last year.  Other than that, he really didn't pitch that bad.  The year before that when he was on the DBacks, same story... pitched a great game, then gave up a 3 run shot to Encarnacion in the 8th and a solo to Aaron Hill.  He has pitched much better this year only allowing a BAA of .212 opposed to .300 and .283.  Morrow has stroked teams at interleague play in the past and should do the same today, even though the Nats have been hitting hot. 

I would love to give you a pick for the TOR/WASH game as far as sides go, but I think that is kind of tough with the juice being where it is for Toronto.  The Nats are obviously the better play for value but with the unpredictability of both starters at times, I'm not really more confident in one team more so than the other.

I know this is a short day, so definitely not as exciting as usual, but we can make it a great day.  Got my usual parlays going and hoping my hot streak continues.  GL everyone and let's get this today!!!

Braves are 0-8 on Monday this year.They may be due.

I'm with you with every pick except for LAA ML. Glad to see we're on the right track. Let's get paid today. BOL.

Nice write ups with good information.  Thanks for the time and efforts.

always enjoy your write-ups

Very nice buddy, you should get a photo 

 enjoy ur writeups  u have helped me stay in the plus side in MLB.  keep it up!! will you be sharing your parlays, thanks

 

And they may continue with their streak

i like when bettors use the word confidence, its a good word, can i borrow some confidence please? 

Thanks for your input bol tonight big5...

braves is all wrong.   NYY playing in the NL style game loses the DH which puts a damper on the multi hit to HR big innings which is NYY bread and butter.

BOL buddy

Lol.  I'll tell ya, since the start of June, my confidence has been pretty high.  If you've tailed me, you should have made a pretty good amount of money so far, which is the goal here.  In years past, I've always been pretty good with hitting the majority of my games.  4/6, 5/7, 6/9... stuff like that, even when I didn't throw down bets for the games.  I give fantasy sports the entire credit for that.  Add some decent statistical and analytical skills to that, and I felt I really could do something if I put some good effort into research into statistical trends and really thinking about how the game will go down when all factors are put out there.  In the past, I would just write down my picks ahead of time and check them for fun.  Then I realized, I should be attempting to make some money on this. 

Problem is, when I started betting with sites, I would always choose one bad game in a parlay, and thus not hit.  Past few weeks, things have come together a bit and I have been hitting.  Call it a hot streak or what you will, but I have increased my bankroll so I can feel more comfortable betting on single games and 2 and 3 game parlays, and now I feel like I am getting some where.  I don't have all the money in the world to throw down a few hundred or even 1000 dollars on one game, so I just hated the grind.  I still love placing low bets in parlays to get me a ridiculous ROI, even though it is not recommended.  I've said before, I know my stuff, but BRM and discipline is just not my strong suit.  May be my downfall eventually, but i'll sure enjoy the ride.

Everyone basically says parlays are losing bets and I have always disagreed if you can do it the right way.  This is probably because I know I am capable of hitting at a high clip.  Baseball is crazy though at times, and can really throw you some curveballs (pun intended), so I just go into it being optimistic now, and expecting to have a good shot at hitting at a high percentage of my games, but maintaining a good attitude if I don't (because anything can happen with all the interchangeable parts during the games).  I find it easier to take losses since i love parlays, because it is such as small risk for a big win.  I keep going to this past Saturday because it was one of the most ridiculous days I ever had when writing about it ahead of time.  I do have days like that a lot, just never really shared them ahead of time and sharing my thoughts with a large amount of people that are willing to listen to what I have to say. 

Looking over stuff again, Oakland actually cost me around 100 dollars worth of games in several parlays, but had that worked out, it would have been something like 3400 more.  Well worth it in my opinion.  Tough loss, but I realize now, there is really not many investments on earth where you can flip your money like that, so its worth a shot.  I will be sharing my parlays with all of you.  Just crossing my fingers and hoping not to have one of those days where everything seems golden, but then you lose 75% of your games.  I had one of those days in one of my first posts on here.  Talked about how I know my stuff and how I feel its not that hard to hit 2/3 of your games in baseball, then I think I hit like 2 out of 10 games.  Believe me, I was embarrassed for myself, and just hoping that people did not lose a bunch of money listening to me.  I've gathered the courage since then, realizing that I am newer to this, and even the best, most experienced cappers have had days like that.

Now, I have been experimenting with throwing my most confident games in the majority of my parlays, but not all of them, so I don't waste them if something goes wrong.  At times now, if I love a bunch of games, but am not sure about one or two, I'll throw them in together in a few parlays, but take both sides on the ones that I am not sure about.  To reiterate my thoughts on these recent games, everyone has said that interleague is hard but I always thought it might be easier than the normal games on the schedule.  I think it is much easier because of a larger discrepancy in talent between the AL and NL teams at times and not as many rivalry type games.  Rivalry games, I have always been more uncomfortable in picking because they are usually much closer, between division rivals (even if there is a obvious difference in talent).  Hate picking games between teams like Yanks vs Tigers, RedSox vs Yanks, Cubs vs. White Sox (before this year), TB vs Yanks... basically games where both teams are either rivals or both very good teams with heavy hitters and decent pitching.  Thats why I told someone yesterday that said they need a pick between Det/Cin to help them get back on track.  I told them to wait till today and pick the Yanks (another game I really, really hope works out today).  To me, that Det/Cin series was just too tough to call with a great deal of confidence, so it is was a no play to me, especially if you really needed a win.  Before I would bet on anything basically that I thought would win 51% of the time.  Now, I like to only bet my stronger games, but have been mentioning other games that I feel can win at least 55% of the time because whoever is reading my posts may have a bet on them, that I don't.  Don't like to mention games at all if I feel it is a coin flip.

Sorry for writing so much, but I like to explain my entire thought process on things, and if you are willing to listen, I will put it out there.  Hoping today works out for everyone.  Even if it doesn't, I believe there are a lot of good games ahead.  If anyone wants to know what teams or pitchers I love to fade, I'll tell you.  I love to hear feedback from people and thoughts on their games too.  I'm not always 100% on my opinions myself, so when I hear things that other people have to say, it can change my thoughts on these games if I believe they have a better view on it than me.  I am getting much better at recognizing value on the lines.  One thing is, and I am not sure if it is good or bad, but I like to make my picks early.  I am talking really early.  Basically right when the lines come out.  Bad thing is, there may be better value if you wait and the line has a favorable change.  Also, a player may have a day off, and that could really hurt you.  I think though, this is compensated somewhat by the fact that you can find some gems when the lines first come out.  I generally place most of my bets really early, and you can see that based on the cards that I've posted before.  Took OKC at -5 and the over when it first came out, and since then the over has jumped up 2 pts I believe, showing that jumping on it early is not a bad thing necessarily.  I know it's basketball, so no one is sitting, but that is just an example.

Anyways GL to everyone tonight.  Hope we can make some more money together.  If you are taking the basketball game, I highly advise taking the Thunder at -5.5 now and the over of 195.5, even though I got it at 193.5.  If you disagree and want to know reasons for that, I can post it on here as well.  I had a nice discussion with East Oakland (poster on here) about it early in the morning, so that was a pretty decent baseball/basketball thread.  Love to hear opinions from people that feel strongly on the other side and do take those into consideration as well.  I'm stubborn at times, but not so much that I don't value other opinions.  No one knows everything and no one is right 100% of the time.  I know I am not...well maybe 66% of the time :-)  GL!!!

I hope you are wrong about ATL, lol.  Even without the DH, I believe that they have a more consistent lineup then the Braves.  Sure they are big on the HR, but players 1-8 can hit them still...  I'll still back Nova over Delgado any day.  Yanks can be patient when they need to be and Delgado's walks could crush him against this lineup.  Brave's bullpen is really, really good, so as long as the Yanks could get a lead before Delgado goes out, they will be more than a coinflip in my book.  Nova is better away and does not have to deal with the dimensions of Yankee Stadium.  I'll take the pitcher that is 24-8 over 45 career starts and has to play mostly AL East teams , while getting a ridiculous amount of run support in general when he is on the mound, over a second year pitcher (5-6 over 18 career starts) that does not have to deal with teams half the caliber of the Yanks on a regular basis.  Obviously you are probably on the other side, so GL to you.  If you don't like that game, I feel very strongly about the Angels tonight.  Who wants to face that lineup now that they have found their groove?!  I think that Garrett Richards could give up 6 runs, and the Dodgers would still have a tough time beating the Angels tonight. 

Plus, you're going to have a hard time finding a line that low on the Yanks and Angels the rest of the season.  Can almost guarantee that.  These are two major games I have involved in the majority of my parlays, so if they don't hit I'll have to slow it down a bit again, but I am not crushed by any means... which is good.  Again, since everything in my opinion is pointing to those two teams to pull out a W tonight, just hoping for the best.

Crazy day today at this point... Morrow definitely hurt the under from hitting, but that was at least the game I was least confident in.  It may be a wash still anyways...  BOS/MIA hit the under, so that was good.   Boston lost because Beckett had one of his typical games and Johnson pitched well as I first thought, so that was bad.  Regret changing my mind on that one. NYY apparently had the base loaded 5 times and got one run out of it from a wild pitch.  Combine that with the robbed homer from Swisher (Thank you for a probable Yanks win at least) and you probably hit the over pretty easily.  BTW... why are the Yankees throwing in the worst pitchers in their bullpen right now?!  LOVE the ANGELS AND OVER for tonight.  Lets go Halos!!!

Well, would have been nice to hit that over too, but I'll take the Angels win if they can hold onto this now.

Lol.  With around $550 bets worth of parlays and some individual bets out there today, i ended up down 20 bucks because my top bets hit.  That was extremely stressful for all of that.

Actually $28.03 to be exact  :-)

thanks for todays picks, tailed u on ny & laa,

curious if you would post your parlays, would love to tail u on those as well

No problem.  That Angels game scared the crap out of me.  Sure, I'll put my parleys up for tomorrow sometime in the afternoon.  I'm going to tell everyone to hammer the Yanks again, with Det, and Mil right behind that game.  Definitely parlaying those 3 tomorrow.  Two early leans on dogs are Pit and Ari.

Yo bettinbig, go to thread, lets talk about the games for tomorrow, lemme know what you like bruh.