3. Carlos Rodón Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+125) — 1 Unit (Edge: 3.6%)
Write-Up:
Rodón has allowed fewer than 2 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts and is currently locked in with a 1.72 ERA over his past 6 appearances. He faces a Rangers team ranked 26th in runs per game against left-handed pitching. The model gives him a 58% chance of holding opponents under 1.5 earned runs, while the market implies only 44%. That’s a 3.6% edge and makes this a sharp +EV prop play.
Write-Up:
Polanco has cleared 1.5 total bases in 8 of his last 12 games and has a strong matchup against a fastball-heavy righty whose hard-hit rate allowed is above league average. Polanco ranks in the top 15th percentile in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The model gives him a 49% chance to hit this over, which translates to a 4.2% edge at +150 — worth 2 units.
Write-Up:
Devers has drawn a walk in 9 of his last 12 games and is facing Orioles pitcher Cade Povich, who ranks in the bottom 10% of MLB starters in walk rate. Boston’s approach lately has been more disciplined, and Devers has improved his chase rate. The model gives him a 43% chance of drawing a walk, translating to a 2.8% edge at +140.
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