3. Carlos Rodón Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+125) — 1 Unit (Edge: 3.6%)
Write-Up: Rodón has allowed fewer than 2 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts and is currently locked in with a 1.72 ERA over his past 6 appearances. He faces a Rangers team ranked 26th in runs per game against left-handed pitching. The model gives him a 58% chance of holding opponents under 1.5 earned runs, while the market implies only 44%. That’s a 3.6% edge and makes this a sharp +EV prop play.
Write-Up: Polanco has cleared 1.5 total bases in 8 of his last 12 games and has a strong matchup against a fastball-heavy righty whose hard-hit rate allowed is above league average. Polanco ranks in the top 15th percentile in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The model gives him a 49% chance to hit this over, which translates to a 4.2% edge at +150 — worth 2 units.
Write-Up: Devers has drawn a walk in 9 of his last 12 games and is facing Orioles pitcher Cade Povich, who ranks in the bottom 10% of MLB starters in walk rate. Boston’s approach lately has been more disciplined, and Devers has improved his chase rate. The model gives him a 43% chance of drawing a walk, translating to a 2.8% edge at +140.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
3. Carlos Rodón Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+125) — 1 Unit (Edge: 3.6%)
Write-Up: Rodón has allowed fewer than 2 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts and is currently locked in with a 1.72 ERA over his past 6 appearances. He faces a Rangers team ranked 26th in runs per game against left-handed pitching. The model gives him a 58% chance of holding opponents under 1.5 earned runs, while the market implies only 44%. That’s a 3.6% edge and makes this a sharp +EV prop play.
Write-Up: Polanco has cleared 1.5 total bases in 8 of his last 12 games and has a strong matchup against a fastball-heavy righty whose hard-hit rate allowed is above league average. Polanco ranks in the top 15th percentile in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The model gives him a 49% chance to hit this over, which translates to a 4.2% edge at +150 — worth 2 units.
Write-Up: Devers has drawn a walk in 9 of his last 12 games and is facing Orioles pitcher Cade Povich, who ranks in the bottom 10% of MLB starters in walk rate. Boston’s approach lately has been more disciplined, and Devers has improved his chase rate. The model gives him a 43% chance of drawing a walk, translating to a 2.8% edge at +140.
Analysis: McMahon is projected to bat cleanup in a game at Coors Field, which ranks as the top park for run-scoring. With favorable hitting conditions and a projection of 0.6 RBIs, the model sees value in this prop.Covers.com
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
Time: 12:10 PM PDT
Analysis: Tovar is expected to bat second in the lineup, providing ample opportunities to drive in runs. The model projects him for 0.7 RBIs, offering a positive expected value at the current odds.
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Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 RBIs (+220)
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
Time: 12:10 PM PDT
Analysis: McMahon is projected to bat cleanup in a game at Coors Field, which ranks as the top park for run-scoring. With favorable hitting conditions and a projection of 0.6 RBIs, the model sees value in this prop.Covers.com
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
Time: 12:10 PM PDT
Analysis: Tovar is expected to bat second in the lineup, providing ample opportunities to drive in runs. The model projects him for 0.7 RBIs, offering a positive expected value at the current odds.
Analysis: Tovar is expected to bat second in the lineup, providing ample opportunities to drive in runs. The model projects him for 0.7 RBIs, offering a positive expected value at the current odds.
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Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 RBIs (+180)
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
Time: 12:10 PM PDT
Analysis: Tovar is expected to bat second in the lineup, providing ample opportunities to drive in runs. The model projects him for 0.7 RBIs, offering a positive expected value at the current odds.
Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110) — 1 unit McMahon has been hot at the plate and gets a favorable matchup against a righty with a high WHIP and low strikeout rate. He's batting over .300 this month and hits in the middle of the order, giving him plenty of chances to contribute across all stat categories. Our model projects 1.83 combined hits, runs, and RBIs.
Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 RBIs (+150) — 1 unit Tovar thrives with runners in scoring position and gets to face a lefty with reverse splits. He’s quietly been one of the Rockies' best situational hitters this season and has RBIs in 5 of his last 8 games. At +150, there’s solid value on a bet that needs to hit just ~40% of the time to be profitable.
Carlos Rodón Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105) — 1 unit Rodón’s velocity and whiff rate are climbing, and he faces a Mariners lineup that strikes out at the 3rd-highest rate in the league vs LHP. He’s cleared this number in 3 of his last 4 starts, and our model projects 6.2 Ks today with upside if his slider is sharp early.
AJ Smith-Shawver Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-165) — 1 unit Despite being a young arm, Smith-Shawver draws a Nationals lineup that ranks bottom 5 in strikeout avoidance vs right-handed pitching. He showed strikeout upside in the minors and has a solid fastball-slider combo. Washington swings aggressively early in counts, which sets up well for whiffs if he works ahead. Our model projects 5.3 Ks, making this a narrow but valid edge even at a juiced price.
Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Ks (+100) — 1 unit Flaherty has quietly been one of the best strikeout pitchers this month. He’s facing a Guardians team that strikes out at a 25.1% clip vs RHP and struggles with elevated fastballs — a pitch Flaherty throws over 50% of the time. He’s hit 6+ Ks in 4 of his last 5 starts and draws a soft-contact lineup that lacks plate discipline.
Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) — 1 unit Acuña crushes right-handed pitching and is especially dangerous against soft-tossing arms like Trevor Williams, who allows a .452 SLG to righties. Acuña’s expected batting average and barrel rate both spike against low-velocity four-seamers — Williams' most-used pitch.
Julio Rodríguez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105) — 1 unit Julio leads off for a Mariners team facing Lance McCullers Jr., who’s giving up base runners in bunches this season. With Kirby expected to keep the game close and McCullers likely to struggle, Julio will have multiple opportunities to both score and drive in runs. He’s cleared this line in 6 of his last 8 games.
Carlos Rodón Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+120) — 1 unit Rodón’s form has turned a corner — he’s allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in 3 of his last 4 outings. He draws a Mariners lineup that ranks bottom 5 in runs per game vs left-handed starters and tends to struggle with command-heavy arms. If Rodón avoids the big inning and gets to 5+ innings, he’s well-positioned to cash this alt-under. Our model projects 1.2 earned runs allowed today, showing clear value at this price.
All props show model edge between 3.2% and 5.8%, qualifying for 1-unit exposure under our system.
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UPDATED PROPS PICKS
Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110) — 1 unit McMahon has been hot at the plate and gets a favorable matchup against a righty with a high WHIP and low strikeout rate. He's batting over .300 this month and hits in the middle of the order, giving him plenty of chances to contribute across all stat categories. Our model projects 1.83 combined hits, runs, and RBIs.
Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 RBIs (+150) — 1 unit Tovar thrives with runners in scoring position and gets to face a lefty with reverse splits. He’s quietly been one of the Rockies' best situational hitters this season and has RBIs in 5 of his last 8 games. At +150, there’s solid value on a bet that needs to hit just ~40% of the time to be profitable.
Carlos Rodón Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105) — 1 unit Rodón’s velocity and whiff rate are climbing, and he faces a Mariners lineup that strikes out at the 3rd-highest rate in the league vs LHP. He’s cleared this number in 3 of his last 4 starts, and our model projects 6.2 Ks today with upside if his slider is sharp early.
AJ Smith-Shawver Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-165) — 1 unit Despite being a young arm, Smith-Shawver draws a Nationals lineup that ranks bottom 5 in strikeout avoidance vs right-handed pitching. He showed strikeout upside in the minors and has a solid fastball-slider combo. Washington swings aggressively early in counts, which sets up well for whiffs if he works ahead. Our model projects 5.3 Ks, making this a narrow but valid edge even at a juiced price.
Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Ks (+100) — 1 unit Flaherty has quietly been one of the best strikeout pitchers this month. He’s facing a Guardians team that strikes out at a 25.1% clip vs RHP and struggles with elevated fastballs — a pitch Flaherty throws over 50% of the time. He’s hit 6+ Ks in 4 of his last 5 starts and draws a soft-contact lineup that lacks plate discipline.
Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) — 1 unit Acuña crushes right-handed pitching and is especially dangerous against soft-tossing arms like Trevor Williams, who allows a .452 SLG to righties. Acuña’s expected batting average and barrel rate both spike against low-velocity four-seamers — Williams' most-used pitch.
Julio Rodríguez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105) — 1 unit Julio leads off for a Mariners team facing Lance McCullers Jr., who’s giving up base runners in bunches this season. With Kirby expected to keep the game close and McCullers likely to struggle, Julio will have multiple opportunities to both score and drive in runs. He’s cleared this line in 6 of his last 8 games.
Carlos Rodón Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+120) — 1 unit Rodón’s form has turned a corner — he’s allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in 3 of his last 4 outings. He draws a Mariners lineup that ranks bottom 5 in runs per game vs left-handed starters and tends to struggle with command-heavy arms. If Rodón avoids the big inning and gets to 5+ innings, he’s well-positioned to cash this alt-under. Our model projects 1.2 earned runs allowed today, showing clear value at this price.
All props show model edge between 3.2% and 5.8%, qualifying for 1-unit exposure under our system.
My mistake on the Rodon pick, I didnt post it in time, I have no idea whats even happening in that game. So consumed with what Im building I havent even looked at the scoreboard.
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My mistake on the Rodon pick, I didnt post it in time, I have no idea whats even happening in that game. So consumed with what Im building I havent even looked at the scoreboard.
My mistake on the Rodon pick, I didnt post it in time, I have no idea whats even happening in that game. So consumed with what Im building I havent even looked at the scoreboard.
sure
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Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:
My mistake on the Rodon pick, I didnt post it in time, I have no idea whats even happening in that game. So consumed with what Im building I havent even looked at the scoreboard.
You can bleieve whatever you want moron. Im working round the clock here to get this community something legendary. I just saw what happened in the yankees game literally 3 minutes ago. Go away
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You can bleieve whatever you want moron. Im working round the clock here to get this community something legendary. I just saw what happened in the yankees game literally 3 minutes ago. Go away
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