Not exactly.
The vegas linemaker comes up with a line to get equal action on both sides.
I come up with a line to predict a RESULT.
There is a big difference there. The closer you get to predicting results, the more you can take advantage of the difference between the two.
Not exactly.
The vegas linemaker comes up with a line to get equal action on both sides.
I come up with a line to predict a RESULT.
There is a big difference there. The closer you get to predicting results, the more you can take advantage of the difference between the two.
Couldnt disagree with you more.
Couldnt disagree with you more.
Because of the truth and validity of this statement-- that is why you went on a pissy little rant. You're an arrogantt jackass and I hope people read this. These are facts.You can't say squat about me, 'cuz you don't know me, right?
You can't honestly believe you have accomplished in tarnishing my good name, right? If you are as stellar as you claim to be, you wouldn't be such a sensitive OCD chicken-head-eque type, ya dig?
C'mon man, just 'cuz you keep coming on here and continuing to make pointless posts doesn't equal in you winning anything. I'll reiterate again, your one funny dude 4.45. Good luck on your non-posted 20K wagers and have fun on the raft... errr... yacht.
Because of the truth and validity of this statement-- that is why you went on a pissy little rant. You're an arrogantt jackass and I hope people read this. These are facts.You can't say squat about me, 'cuz you don't know me, right?
You can't honestly believe you have accomplished in tarnishing my good name, right? If you are as stellar as you claim to be, you wouldn't be such a sensitive OCD chicken-head-eque type, ya dig?
C'mon man, just 'cuz you keep coming on here and continuing to make pointless posts doesn't equal in you winning anything. I'll reiterate again, your one funny dude 4.45. Good luck on your non-posted 20K wagers and have fun on the raft... errr... yacht.
Not exactly.
The vegas linemaker comes up with a line to get equal action on both sides.
I come up with a line to predict a RESULT.
There is a big difference there. The closer you get to predicting results, the more you can take advantage of the difference between the two.
Not exactly.
The vegas linemaker comes up with a line to get equal action on both sides.
I come up with a line to predict a RESULT.
There is a big difference there. The closer you get to predicting results, the more you can take advantage of the difference between the two.
The truth is, if you don't already understand that 95% of sports bettors lose consistently, you have little hope of gathering Van's inferences here. No offense, just frustrating reading all the recapitulated questions.... the line is for the public boys.
The truth is, if you don't already understand that 95% of sports bettors lose consistently, you have little hope of gathering Van's inferences here. No offense, just frustrating reading all the recapitulated questions.... the line is for the public boys.
Value has nothing to do with being 45%, 55% or 65%...if you don't bet spots where you have value, you really can't win long term.....If you believe that a team could win a game 40% of the time, and they only have to win it 30% of the time in order to be profitbable, based on the line.......then if you play it, you will win in the long run. You may or may not win that individual game, but you will play enough games that match that scenario that you can expect to have long term success......value means putting yourself in a position to be profitable over the long haul.......you can make bad decisions and still "win", you can make good decisions and still "lose"....the problem people have with baseball is that they try to "win" every game....Everybody wants to "win" every game, but most understand that they can't so they try to put themselves in a position to have the bets they make be profitable long-term ventures.....my two cents. I know plenty here don't agree with it, but I honestly believe it's the only way to succeed at this.
Value has nothing to do with being 45%, 55% or 65%...if you don't bet spots where you have value, you really can't win long term.....If you believe that a team could win a game 40% of the time, and they only have to win it 30% of the time in order to be profitbable, based on the line.......then if you play it, you will win in the long run. You may or may not win that individual game, but you will play enough games that match that scenario that you can expect to have long term success......value means putting yourself in a position to be profitable over the long haul.......you can make bad decisions and still "win", you can make good decisions and still "lose"....the problem people have with baseball is that they try to "win" every game....Everybody wants to "win" every game, but most understand that they can't so they try to put themselves in a position to have the bets they make be profitable long-term ventures.....my two cents. I know plenty here don't agree with it, but I honestly believe it's the only way to succeed at this.
Good revival of a pretty amusing thread. I needed a laugh this morning...
Good revival of a pretty amusing thread. I needed a laugh this morning...
Value has nothing to do with being 45%, 55% or 65%...if you don't bet spots where you have value, you really can't win long term.....If you believe that a team could win a game 40% of the time, and they only have to win it 30% of the time in order to be profitbable, based on the line.......then if you play it, you will win in the long run. You may or may not win that individual game, but you will play enough games that match that scenario that you can expect to have long term success......value means putting yourself in a position to be profitable over the long haul.......you can make bad decisions and still "win", you can make good decisions and still "lose"....the problem people have with baseball is that they try to "win" every game....Everybody wants to "win" every game, but most understand that they can't so they try to put themselves in a position to have the bets they make be profitable long-term ventures.....my two cents. I know plenty here don't agree with it, but I honestly believe it's the only way to succeed at this.
Bingo. Very well said.
I think the statement that best sums it up is that I bet games that I think will lose all the time in MLB.
Nobody bets a +200 team thinking that team is going to win, or would they bet that team if they could only get +100. The reason you bet a +200 team is that you only have to win 1 out of 3 to break even, and if you put their chances of winning at 35%, you will be up longterm. You still think that team is going to lose that day, you are not "picking winners", you are taking value based on the difference between your assigned probability and the available market line.
Value has nothing to do with being 45%, 55% or 65%...if you don't bet spots where you have value, you really can't win long term.....If you believe that a team could win a game 40% of the time, and they only have to win it 30% of the time in order to be profitbable, based on the line.......then if you play it, you will win in the long run. You may or may not win that individual game, but you will play enough games that match that scenario that you can expect to have long term success......value means putting yourself in a position to be profitable over the long haul.......you can make bad decisions and still "win", you can make good decisions and still "lose"....the problem people have with baseball is that they try to "win" every game....Everybody wants to "win" every game, but most understand that they can't so they try to put themselves in a position to have the bets they make be profitable long-term ventures.....my two cents. I know plenty here don't agree with it, but I honestly believe it's the only way to succeed at this.
Bingo. Very well said.
I think the statement that best sums it up is that I bet games that I think will lose all the time in MLB.
Nobody bets a +200 team thinking that team is going to win, or would they bet that team if they could only get +100. The reason you bet a +200 team is that you only have to win 1 out of 3 to break even, and if you put their chances of winning at 35%, you will be up longterm. You still think that team is going to lose that day, you are not "picking winners", you are taking value based on the difference between your assigned probability and the available market line.
Look at the date of post 1.
Look at the date of post 1.
If the public at large bets for "winners", and are not "price sensitive" when betting, then it stands to reason that the betting line (which is there to balance action) will be uncorrelated to the actual probability of winning.
That difference, is what I hope to find and exploit. I look for small differences between what I think a 50/50 RESULTS line is, and the bettable market line and bet the side that is value.
If the public at large bets for "winners", and are not "price sensitive" when betting, then it stands to reason that the betting line (which is there to balance action) will be uncorrelated to the actual probability of winning.
That difference, is what I hope to find and exploit. I look for small differences between what I think a 50/50 RESULTS line is, and the bettable market line and bet the side that is value.
If the public at large bets for "winners", and are not "price sensitive" when betting, then it stands to reason that the betting line (which is there to balance action) will be uncorrelated to the actual probability of winning.
This is what I meant above when I stated "the line is for the public"... very good synopsis of why the line is what it is each day
If the public at large bets for "winners", and are not "price sensitive" when betting, then it stands to reason that the betting line (which is there to balance action) will be uncorrelated to the actual probability of winning.
This is what I meant above when I stated "the line is for the public"... very good synopsis of why the line is what it is each day
Sorry, didnt see this until now.
Im not betting this MLB season. My model is too expensive to run and has too much risk in todays sportsbook landscape. I used to be able to get 1 cent juice and be able to trade off of those positions with zero commission, with little or no transactional cost and little or no risk.
Now it is totally different. Even though I can still play at MB and Pinnacle - the risk and costs are too high. I am a grinder at MLB, im not a supergifted telepathic handicapper like some of our resident covers posters - I make my money on pennies. And those pennies - for the time being - have dried up for me.
I take a wait and see approach. If something changes for me, I will jump back in - but for now I am just enjoying an extended vaca.
Thanks for the nice words BTW.
Sorry, didnt see this until now.
Im not betting this MLB season. My model is too expensive to run and has too much risk in todays sportsbook landscape. I used to be able to get 1 cent juice and be able to trade off of those positions with zero commission, with little or no transactional cost and little or no risk.
Now it is totally different. Even though I can still play at MB and Pinnacle - the risk and costs are too high. I am a grinder at MLB, im not a supergifted telepathic handicapper like some of our resident covers posters - I make my money on pennies. And those pennies - for the time being - have dried up for me.
I take a wait and see approach. If something changes for me, I will jump back in - but for now I am just enjoying an extended vaca.
Thanks for the nice words BTW.
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