You serious, DOV?
Have you noticed how those Bronx bombers have fared over the last couple of years?
You serious, DOV?
Have you noticed how those Bronx bombers have fared over the last couple of years?
they would rate their plays and bet from small ,medium,large and large plus,,most of their LARGE plays were big dogs ,very few big favs...
will you be posting your plays every day and could you post your line I would be very interested to see, you are one of the few that I've seen that get it on how to bet baseball !
thanks in advance
they would rate their plays and bet from small ,medium,large and large plus,,most of their LARGE plays were big dogs ,very few big favs...
will you be posting your plays every day and could you post your line I would be very interested to see, you are one of the few that I've seen that get it on how to bet baseball !
thanks in advance
I realize this - but at the same time feel a masochistic need to try and persuade them and have the discussion.
Most wont care or ever learn, but some will.
Its all good - thx for the compliments.
I realize this - but at the same time feel a masochistic need to try and persuade them and have the discussion.
Most wont care or ever learn, but some will.
Its all good - thx for the compliments.
GH and Van have the right formula - compare the posted line to the odds chart - if you think your team has a greater chance than the percentages, then you play it.
Personally, I never take a fave over -150. Reasoning is simple - the best team in baseball right now is .640 win percentage. That is pretty spot on for most years, so if the best team in baseball only wins at a 60-65% clip, then it stands to reason that they also lose at a 35-40% clip. So if you are playing a team at a higher price, you will be lucky just to break even money-wise.
Keep up the great posts guys...
GH and Van have the right formula - compare the posted line to the odds chart - if you think your team has a greater chance than the percentages, then you play it.
Personally, I never take a fave over -150. Reasoning is simple - the best team in baseball right now is .640 win percentage. That is pretty spot on for most years, so if the best team in baseball only wins at a 60-65% clip, then it stands to reason that they also lose at a 35-40% clip. So if you are playing a team at a higher price, you will be lucky just to break even money-wise.
Keep up the great posts guys...
But here is the difference:
The books are handicapping a line based on BETTING PATTERNS, you are handicapping a line based on RESULTS.
Read that again. Think about it. Big difference.
The books put out a line that gets 50% of the action on each side. That doesnt necessarily mean that that line will be aligned with results, it just means that line will be aligned with betting patterns. You have the ability to handicap results, and beat that line over the longrun.
If you had a bookie in South Bend Indiana, he might shade Notre Dame several points each week. By handicapping results, you will be getting several points extra each week by betting the opponent, and therefore will be profitable longterm.
In MLB it is the same thing. Every day, there are lines that are off that you should attempt to get the value on. If you can - that is the way to win longterm at MLB.
GL
But here is the difference:
The books are handicapping a line based on BETTING PATTERNS, you are handicapping a line based on RESULTS.
Read that again. Think about it. Big difference.
The books put out a line that gets 50% of the action on each side. That doesnt necessarily mean that that line will be aligned with results, it just means that line will be aligned with betting patterns. You have the ability to handicap results, and beat that line over the longrun.
If you had a bookie in South Bend Indiana, he might shade Notre Dame several points each week. By handicapping results, you will be getting several points extra each week by betting the opponent, and therefore will be profitable longterm.
In MLB it is the same thing. Every day, there are lines that are off that you should attempt to get the value on. If you can - that is the way to win longterm at MLB.
GL
I realize this - but at the same time feel a masochistic need to try and persuade them and have the discussion.
Most wont care or ever learn, but some will.
Its all good - thx for the compliments.
I realize this - but at the same time feel a masochistic need to try and persuade them and have the discussion.
Most wont care or ever learn, but some will.
Its all good - thx for the compliments.
But here is the difference:
The books are handicapping a line based on BETTING PATTERNS, you are handicapping a line based on RESULTS.
Read that again. Think about it. Big difference.
The books put out a line that gets 50% of the action on each side. That doesnt necessarily mean that that line will be aligned with results, it just means that line will be aligned with betting patterns. You have the ability to handicap results, and beat that line over the longrun.
If you had a bookie in South Bend Indiana, he might shade Notre Dame several points each week. By handicapping results, you will be getting several points extra each week by betting the opponent, and therefore will be profitable longterm.
In MLB it is the same thing. Every day, there are lines that are off that you should attempt to get the value on. If you can - that is the way to win longterm at MLB.
GL
But here is the difference:
The books are handicapping a line based on BETTING PATTERNS, you are handicapping a line based on RESULTS.
Read that again. Think about it. Big difference.
The books put out a line that gets 50% of the action on each side. That doesnt necessarily mean that that line will be aligned with results, it just means that line will be aligned with betting patterns. You have the ability to handicap results, and beat that line over the longrun.
If you had a bookie in South Bend Indiana, he might shade Notre Dame several points each week. By handicapping results, you will be getting several points extra each week by betting the opponent, and therefore will be profitable longterm.
In MLB it is the same thing. Every day, there are lines that are off that you should attempt to get the value on. If you can - that is the way to win longterm at MLB.
GL
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