BTW Gamehunter, how much do your unit weights depend upon the actual line and how much are they determined strictly by your sense of the value they present.
As you know it is very common for cappers to reduce the units risked on say a +180 (or higher) play simply due to the generous payout/reduced chance of winning combination.
Or is it strictly a measure of value that determined the base amount of your plays?
BTW Gamehunter, how much do your unit weights depend upon the actual line and how much are they determined strictly by your sense of the value they present.
As you know it is very common for cappers to reduce the units risked on say a +180 (or higher) play simply due to the generous payout/reduced chance of winning combination.
Or is it strictly a measure of value that determined the base amount of your plays?
BTW Gamehunter, how much do your unit weights depend upon the actual line and how much are they determined strictly by your sense of the value they present.
As you know it is very common for cappers to reduce the units risked on say a +180 (or higher) play simply due to the generous payout/reduced chance of winning combination.
Or is it strictly a measure of value that determined the base amount of your plays?
Thanks
Hey Cap! Good question. I think my units played is generally a gut opinion of mine which is based upon my level of confidence and the line. Inherent in my strategy, I risk more on favorites than dogs. If I play 1.5 units, I'm risking more than 1.5 units on a favorite as I am actually risking 1.5 units times the line. Regardless, it's a balancing act on my part and a bit of a gut based upon my confidence level. Good question and thanks for not asking who I like in tonight's game.
BTW Gamehunter, how much do your unit weights depend upon the actual line and how much are they determined strictly by your sense of the value they present.
As you know it is very common for cappers to reduce the units risked on say a +180 (or higher) play simply due to the generous payout/reduced chance of winning combination.
Or is it strictly a measure of value that determined the base amount of your plays?
Thanks
Hey Cap! Good question. I think my units played is generally a gut opinion of mine which is based upon my level of confidence and the line. Inherent in my strategy, I risk more on favorites than dogs. If I play 1.5 units, I'm risking more than 1.5 units on a favorite as I am actually risking 1.5 units times the line. Regardless, it's a balancing act on my part and a bit of a gut based upon my confidence level. Good question and thanks for not asking who I like in tonight's game.
The Mets don't lose on opening day, might want to re think that.
Anyone notice that the strong comments about the Reds having value tomorrow against the Mets have all come from New Yorkers? However, your point that the Mets have been solid on Opening Day is duly noted and is a good one.
The Mets don't lose on opening day, might want to re think that.
Anyone notice that the strong comments about the Reds having value tomorrow against the Mets have all come from New Yorkers? However, your point that the Mets have been solid on Opening Day is duly noted and is a good one.
Hey game any thoughts on this Atlanta game tonight?
Sailing...I will respond because I like you despite that I mentioned in my first post in this thread that if I don't make a play on a game, it means that I have no real strong opinion on a game and also mentioned later on that I have no play on this game....but I like you.
Hey game any thoughts on this Atlanta game tonight?
Sailing...I will respond because I like you despite that I mentioned in my first post in this thread that if I don't make a play on a game, it means that I have no real strong opinion on a game and also mentioned later on that I have no play on this game....but I like you.
Thanks man I got a lot of respect for you. Sometimes these threads get so long I over look some of the things mentioned. Looks like I should pay more attention. Thanks again buddy. Hope you have a great season.
Thanks man I got a lot of respect for you. Sometimes these threads get so long I over look some of the things mentioned. Looks like I should pay more attention. Thanks again buddy. Hope you have a great season.
Gamehunter don't mean to brake in your thread but on Vanzack thread earlier about the line value, how do you factor a run line agains't ML value as it relates to your own capped line.How do runs compare to your capped ML value if your cap is 10 or 20 lower or higher is that equal to 1 or 2 runs in value? I know that sounds confusing but your probably get where I'm coming from the decision to lay juice agains't a run and when if ever do you consider it of value and do you following a general scale?.
Gamehunter don't mean to brake in your thread but on Vanzack thread earlier about the line value, how do you factor a run line agains't ML value as it relates to your own capped line.How do runs compare to your capped ML value if your cap is 10 or 20 lower or higher is that equal to 1 or 2 runs in value? I know that sounds confusing but your probably get where I'm coming from the decision to lay juice agains't a run and when if ever do you consider it of value and do you following a general scale?.
Gamehunter don't mean to brake in your thread but on Vanzack thread earlier about the line value, how do you factor a run line agains't ML value as it relates to your own capped line.How do runs compare to your capped ML value if your cap is 10 or 20 lower or higher is that equal to 1 or 2 runs in value? I know that sounds confusing but your probably get where I'm coming from the decision to lay juice agains't a run and when if ever do you consider it of value and do you following a general scale?.
I don't often play the run lines because I don't see great value in it and I also never play a favorite over -140 and it is extremely rare that I ever play a favorite over -130. On a few rare occasions I play the run line in a complete mismatch where I think there is something close to value in the regular line but that it too high to play in my model. I know that doesn't help much. I also on occasion, do play the reverse money line. Look at the Atlanta Braves, They went more than a year at one point until late last season where they didn't win a road game by just one run. So the reverse money line where you laid 1.5 runs with the Braves even when they were dogs, brought you back huge returns especially when you consider they had 29 straight road wins by more than 1 run.
Gamehunter don't mean to brake in your thread but on Vanzack thread earlier about the line value, how do you factor a run line agains't ML value as it relates to your own capped line.How do runs compare to your capped ML value if your cap is 10 or 20 lower or higher is that equal to 1 or 2 runs in value? I know that sounds confusing but your probably get where I'm coming from the decision to lay juice agains't a run and when if ever do you consider it of value and do you following a general scale?.
I don't often play the run lines because I don't see great value in it and I also never play a favorite over -140 and it is extremely rare that I ever play a favorite over -130. On a few rare occasions I play the run line in a complete mismatch where I think there is something close to value in the regular line but that it too high to play in my model. I know that doesn't help much. I also on occasion, do play the reverse money line. Look at the Atlanta Braves, They went more than a year at one point until late last season where they didn't win a road game by just one run. So the reverse money line where you laid 1.5 runs with the Braves even when they were dogs, brought you back huge returns especially when you consider they had 29 straight road wins by more than 1 run.
That's exactly what I meant when you are getting runs when and how do you make that value if the moneyline difference is short and + runs is an option. On unmentioned online book I saw 5 different options at all kinds of crazy different prices I usually pay no attention to them kinda like an all teasers are a suckers bet mentality but perhaps I should be trying to caculate a value and apply that to my cap value. In the old days when lines where given as5 1/2=6 1/2 etc you hardly ever saw a 2/1 bet, a 220 was scoffed at and there would be no one would lay that much wood that was my first memory of the beginning of run lines being presented as an alternative to try and stimulate action.Today though more and more I see all kinds of run options and many huge stupid high monelines on favorites and not equal value offered on the dog. It seems out of whack to me a lot like it's meant to be a confusion or a carrot type trap.
That's exactly what I meant when you are getting runs when and how do you make that value if the moneyline difference is short and + runs is an option. On unmentioned online book I saw 5 different options at all kinds of crazy different prices I usually pay no attention to them kinda like an all teasers are a suckers bet mentality but perhaps I should be trying to caculate a value and apply that to my cap value. In the old days when lines where given as5 1/2=6 1/2 etc you hardly ever saw a 2/1 bet, a 220 was scoffed at and there would be no one would lay that much wood that was my first memory of the beginning of run lines being presented as an alternative to try and stimulate action.Today though more and more I see all kinds of run options and many huge stupid high monelines on favorites and not equal value offered on the dog. It seems out of whack to me a lot like it's meant to be a confusion or a carrot type trap.
Gamehunter don't mean to brake in your thread but on Vanzack thread earlier about the line value, how do you factor a run line agains't ML value as it relates to your own capped line.How do runs compare to your capped ML value if your cap is 10 or 20 lower or higher is that equal to 1 or 2 runs in value? I know that sounds confusing but your probably get where I'm coming from the decision to lay juice agains't a run and when if ever do you consider it of value and do you following a general scale?.
If I can jump in on this one....
The spread on run lines is often greater than on money lines. For me, it comes down to whether you can get a run line at 1 cent spreads like you can on sides.
Often, you have to pay more to bet RL's because the house deals a greater spread than on sides.
This is not the case at MB tonight, and often - but at most shops it holds true - and it makes it more difficult to beat longterm.
I never met a hater better than me. I am on twitter
Gamehunter don't mean to brake in your thread but on Vanzack thread earlier about the line value, how do you factor a run line agains't ML value as it relates to your own capped line.How do runs compare to your capped ML value if your cap is 10 or 20 lower or higher is that equal to 1 or 2 runs in value? I know that sounds confusing but your probably get where I'm coming from the decision to lay juice agains't a run and when if ever do you consider it of value and do you following a general scale?.
If I can jump in on this one....
The spread on run lines is often greater than on money lines. For me, it comes down to whether you can get a run line at 1 cent spreads like you can on sides.
Often, you have to pay more to bet RL's because the house deals a greater spread than on sides.
This is not the case at MB tonight, and often - but at most shops it holds true - and it makes it more difficult to beat longterm.
I won't clog you up any longer thanks for the advice,Vanzack Thanks for jumping in. I will send you both a friends request and try and get up with you guys off thread sometime for some more
I won't clog you up any longer thanks for the advice,Vanzack Thanks for jumping in. I will send you both a friends request and try and get up with you guys off thread sometime for some more
I hope you shatter that +140 unit season you had 2 years ago. Then again, anything in the positive is a successful season, even a +1 unit season. GL on the year.
I hope you shatter that +140 unit season you had 2 years ago. Then again, anything in the positive is a successful season, even a +1 unit season. GL on the year.
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