Posted:
#1001
Back on track my peeps..nothing for today let's see what we have for tomorrow...LET'S GO!!!!!
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ML UNDERDOG CHASE SYSTEM...
I'm liking the under on the Brazil as well
Posted:
#1021
Quote Originally Posted by Jsmith12257:
Hey guys, it's my first post although I've read every comment and have followed this feed the entire season. I fully understand the math involved with this system and the reasoning behind underdogs bc of the +money payout. We all know that since 1998 only 27% of series end in a sweep. Behind those numbers is an even more telling stat: of the 27%, only 36% comes from home teams being swept. Overall the math shows that roughly 9% of home teams (regardless of a favorite or dog) gets swept (3 game series). Furthermore, I went back to the beginning of this season and noted every series outcome from 3 and 4 game series and concluded that thus far, only 8% of those series resulted in the home team being swept (regardless of them being a favorite or dog). The math is 274 series in total with 22 showing the home team being swept (I omitted any series that was shortened to 2 bc of rainouts). Of those 22 series sweeps, only 6 occurred where the home team was an overall better team. I hope I haven't lost your attention at this point...but going one step further....let's assume that of those 274 series played this far, half of them (137) pit a better team (home team) versus a weaker team (road team).....meaning that of the 137 theoretical series (again, I'm not sure the ratio) only 6 resulted in the weaker team sweeping. That's about 4%. So, in theory, if you were to only chase home teams playing a weaker opponent you'd have a 96% chance of winning. Granted, I understand you'd be laying -130 thru -180 on avg (sometimes over -200 for Tanaka, Felix H and others...) but it appears there may be something to it. Or, since the overall stats are supported for the past 15+ years to show a home team (regardless of being a favorite or dog) is only swept about 9% of the time, maybe it'd be feasible to bet on home teams regardless of the matchup. Then, the occasional plus money of +110 or so from a home dog could help to balance the usual -150 or above wins. At a winning clip of 9-1 it could be profitable depending upon what game you win (meaning if it's -140 or a crappy -200). Also, the all important unit size is VERY important too. I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts....
Hey guys, it's my first post although I've read every comment and have followed this feed the entire season. I fully understand the math involved with this system and the reasoning behind underdogs bc of the +money payout. We all know that since 1998 only 27% of series end in a sweep. Behind those numbers is an even more telling stat: of the 27%, only 36% comes from home teams being swept. Overall the math shows that roughly 9% of home teams (regardless of a favorite or dog) gets swept (3 game series). Furthermore, I went back to the beginning of this season and noted every series outcome from 3 and 4 game series and concluded that thus far, only 8% of those series resulted in the home team being swept (regardless of them being a favorite or dog). The math is 274 series in total with 22 showing the home team being swept (I omitted any series that was shortened to 2 bc of rainouts). Of those 22 series sweeps, only 6 occurred where the home team was an overall better team. I hope I haven't lost your attention at this point...but going one step further....let's assume that of those 274 series played this far, half of them (137) pit a better team (home team) versus a weaker team (road team).....meaning that of the 137 theoretical series (again, I'm not sure the ratio) only 6 resulted in the weaker team sweeping. That's about 4%. So, in theory, if you were to only chase home teams playing a weaker opponent you'd have a 96% chance of winning. Granted, I understand you'd be laying -130 thru -180 on avg (sometimes over -200 for Tanaka, Felix H and others...) but it appears there may be something to it. Or, since the overall stats are supported for the past 15+ years to show a home team (regardless of being a favorite or dog) is only swept about 9% of the time, maybe it'd be feasible to bet on home teams regardless of the matchup. Then, the occasional plus money of +110 or so from a home dog could help to balance the usual -150 or above wins. At a winning clip of 9-1 it could be profitable depending upon what game you win (meaning if it's -140 or a crappy -200). Also, the all important unit size is VERY important too. I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts....
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