271-274 -1776
CHC -140
CN +1.5 -160
PHL -1.5 +119
PHL TTO4.5 -103
PHL 1st5 -.5 -120
BLT -1.5 +146
BLT TT O4.5 +110
BLT 1st5 -.5 +106
DT +152
CLV TT O4.5 -110
NYM 1st5 U5 -113
AZ 1st5 +.5 -138
ATL O8 -115
MN +102
MIL -160
LAD O8 -114
SD -117
KC +1.5 -151
KC TT O3.5 -106
SEA -169
SEA U7.5 -109
NYY -130
NYY U8 -110
NYY TT O4.5 +114
Alright I’ll say it, what’s the deal with chc ml and cin +1.5. Last time you took both sides they both were plus money, but this time the only way you win and don’t lose money is if cubs win by 1. Just wondering I don’t doubt you have your reasons
@ScroopyNoopers
I never recall doing that exact thing when both sides were positive. In fact, I do not think it would ever be set that way, unless you get one line very early and something drastic happens to move the line big time.
Otherwise, that would be an autoplay. That must have been something else.
I very rarely do it. I think for example, last year I was 5-8 or something like that. So, the last couple of years it has finished positive for me.
But essentially I want it to be around -140 or less for both of them. Then you look at how often MLB games end in 1-run results. Then the home team is favored and will not have to bat in the 9th if they have a 1-run lead. Then these should usually be a close game and a walkoff in extra innings is also a possible outcome. So, these situations should be a 1-run result more often than that.
But this weekend 2 games fall into most of what I like in these situations: the CIN/CHC and SD/KC games.
In all likelihood I will lose a half unit a majority of the time. But when it seems to be in my favor and I can win 2 units — then if it is likely to win enough to make it a positive play for me — I will consider it.
Of course, I look at the pitching and the team’s latest results, etc.
For example:
CHC is 15-11 at home for +3.5 units and a ROI of 10% (which is decent)
CIN is 17-9 away not the RL for +4.4 units (5th best) and a ROI of 11.3%
The SD/KC game I feel I might be able to play either way —no matter who is favored:
On the ML:
SD away is 17-10 for +8.2 units (2nd best) and a ROI of 26.58%
KC at home is 21-8 for +12.8 units (1st) and a ROI of 35%
On the RL:
SD away is 20-7 for +15.3 units (1st) for a ROI of 43.8%
KC at home is 20-9 for +10.8 units (1st) for a ROI of 28.1%
It is tricker now than it used to be to me. Because of how quickly teams take the pitchers out now and the phantom runner in extra innings when it used to more likely end in a 1-run game — now often will be a larger win for a team.
Another thing I will do I when think I will make this type of play is play one side or the other very early when the lines first come out and then play the other later — because the line will move most of the time toward the favorite.
I will often have the lines on various books because I will get whichever has the absolute best line. Occasionally, the +2.5 line is better.
But if I feel that all of this adds up enough to make it a positive play — then I will play it.
But it will lose most of the time. Like today they switched pitchers and that guy gives up a walk and a homer. But over a season I have been able to pick spots carefully and be positive.
It is just something I like to try to make work. But with the starters pitching fewer innings the last couple of years and the extra inning phantom runners being added — it has become more difficult. So, I may have to drop it.
Then you want to consider each team’s record in 1-run games, etc. I look at a lot of useless stuff.
So, with close to 30% of games ending in 1-run games — if I can get it to closer to 40% then it has proven profitable.
Sorry for the long detailed response.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
