Here's what I got for Wednesday

Tigers ML(-155) *1.55/1.00

Tigers -1.5(+130) *1.00/1.30

Springs/Melton listed 

The A's in their last 15 games are 3-12 SU, and 5-10 on the +1.5 RL.

The Tigers are 6-1 last 7, and 6-1 on the -1.5 RL.

Springs could be the biggest gas can in the entire league, who somehow keeps getting worse.

Who's Melton? Not too many people know him. The kid is fire.

The Tigers are 6 games better than their record per pythagorean win/loss.

The A's are 3 games worse.

Let the networks and experts keep telling us that the Tigers are going to trade away Skubal and Mize. The players hear this noise as well, keeps a fire lit under their ass.

Astros@Nats 1st 5 U5(even) *1.50

Arrighetti/Giffin listed

Giffin isn't contributing to this total, it's Arrighetti. If your looking at his month of June, you already lost. The dude fixed some minor mechanical issues that plagued him in that month. I think you'll see the dude from May, and in his last start.

Giffin has been dogging batters for a while now, and most people don't even know who he is.

I love this bet. Good Luck 

BOL today 

Good luck Sac.  

Followed sir...got -156 ystrdy...line now -139..gl2us

@undermysac

 Bol today

No doubt Melton has been very good. But his BABIP is a miniscule. 164 which is in no way sustainable and indicates he's been very lucky. He also has a fairly high average exit velocity although his barrel rate is pretty good. No doubt he has some nasty stuff. I just worry about the regression monster that comes for all of us eventually. 

Line down to -130

Adding half unit more

that Tigers play looks juicy.  Maybe Tigers F5 and TT over as well

All good points, and I looked at all this stuff before firing. 

The thing to me, is at what point do you say 6 out of 7 outings is all luck? He had only 1 bomb outing giving up 4 earned.

So looking at him pitching, amongst other things, you'll see that the dude never gives up line drives. From what I have noticed, he tunnels all his six pitches very well. The hitters are picking up any movement very late. Hence, low barrel rate, low line drive rate(15.4%) and hence a low babip.

Batted balls either go into the ground, or popped up. Also he's given up a really high "medium" hit rate(52%). That late movement renders hard swings weaker than they could be.

There's a hundred ways to look at analytics. Try to paint a picture that makes sense. His whip is tremendous, he doesn't walk guys either.

If a team like the a's with Springs on the bump take this game I'll be shocked, but I'll eat crow.

YTD 75-93 (-16.43)

K's 3-15 (-11.55)

4-5 (-1.88) last 9 bets

Brutal. Any wager I've upped to 2 or more units has lost this year.

@undermysac

 All good counter-points. I don't disagree with the play at all, but just wanted to play a little devil's advocate because I liked Detroit this morning as well and I was looking for things that would give me pause, and Melton's underlying stats were the one thing I found. I agree he seems like a solid pitcher, but that BABIP is unsustainable. Not that that is necessarily an awful thing. 

@undermysac

All good. Good convo.

Explain why the babip isn't sustainable for him in particular. Has he really been THAT lucky with batted balls? They're just finding mits for no particular reason?

I know what you mean, it holds true for a lot of situations and pitchers. Like if a guy giving up 34% line drives has a few good games in a row, he's due for those line drives and loud outs to do damage.

I don't see those signs in Melton. #'s might on paper, I know.

Good Luck

Yeah, Melton’s numbers probably have some perfume on them. A .155 BABIP and a 99% strand rate usually don’t live forever, so I get

But here’s the real question are the A’s really the team in position to expose it today.. That’s where I’m not sold. Maybe the kid gives some back eventually, but he’s not exactly getting squared up all over the yard, and Oakland’s bats have been flat as hell. So yes, regression could be coming, but I’m not convinced this is the lineup

@undermysac

 It guess it could stay that low, but all experience tells me it won't. Even with weak contact, balls will fall in and find holes. It's just the nature of the game. I'm no BABIP expert, but I'd be curious to see what the lowest BABIP was for a season for a pitcher with a large sample size. I'm out of town right now and simply don't have to research it though. I do really like your under F5 play and I do still like Derroit. I might try them F5 -0.5.

Rockies 1st 5 ML(+180) *1.00/1.80

Hughes/Sasaki listed

Hughes is the big unknown here, only 1 game pitched in the bigs. 24 year old kid going against a stout lineup.

What I do know, is that Sasaki fucking sucks. He shouldn't be laying this much to anyone. 

Good Luck 

Lol Sasaki does suck