1. The Yankees pitching staff is historically dominant early They're 3-0 with a +12 run differential while only allowing 1 total run through 3 games. That's not a typo — opponents have scored 1 run in 3 games. Either their pitching staff is legitimately elite right now or they've drawn an extremely soft schedule. SRS of +3.6 confirms it's real, not luck.
2. Milwaukee Brewers are the offensive surprise 3-0 with +19 run differential — most in baseball — scoring 29 runs in 3 games (9.7/game). The Brewers were a 76-win projection team. They're outscoring everyone right now.
3. San Francisco Giants are historically bad offensively 0-3, only 1 total run scored in 3 games. Run differential of -12. They've been shut out twice. Giants were projected at 71 wins — they look like they might challenge that floor early.
4. March 29 was a coordinated sharp attack on away teams 9 steam moves in a single day, 7 of them on the away side — that's extremely unusual. Sharp money systematically hammered home favorites across the entire slate. The market had home teams overpriced. Result: 5W-4L on the sharp side, 55.6% — slightly above breakeven but not conclusive yet.
5. RLM is 5W-4L overall (55.6%) — beating the 40% rate from week 1 The original reading was alarming (RLM going 40%) but it's recovered to near-breakeven. Still below the documented academic edge of ~57-60%, but the sample (9 games) is too small to read.
6. 5 undefeated teams, 5 winless teams after 3 games Perfectly split. The winless group is interesting — Arizona Diamondbacks were a 75-win projected team and they're 0-3. Sacramento Athletics were projected even worse. Colorado and SF were expected to lose. But the Diamondbacks being 0-3 while giving up 16 runs is a potential fade candidate this week.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
1. The Yankees pitching staff is historically dominant early They're 3-0 with a +12 run differential while only allowing 1 total run through 3 games. That's not a typo — opponents have scored 1 run in 3 games. Either their pitching staff is legitimately elite right now or they've drawn an extremely soft schedule. SRS of +3.6 confirms it's real, not luck.
2. Milwaukee Brewers are the offensive surprise 3-0 with +19 run differential — most in baseball — scoring 29 runs in 3 games (9.7/game). The Brewers were a 76-win projection team. They're outscoring everyone right now.
3. San Francisco Giants are historically bad offensively 0-3, only 1 total run scored in 3 games. Run differential of -12. They've been shut out twice. Giants were projected at 71 wins — they look like they might challenge that floor early.
4. March 29 was a coordinated sharp attack on away teams 9 steam moves in a single day, 7 of them on the away side — that's extremely unusual. Sharp money systematically hammered home favorites across the entire slate. The market had home teams overpriced. Result: 5W-4L on the sharp side, 55.6% — slightly above breakeven but not conclusive yet.
5. RLM is 5W-4L overall (55.6%) — beating the 40% rate from week 1 The original reading was alarming (RLM going 40%) but it's recovered to near-breakeven. Still below the documented academic edge of ~57-60%, but the sample (9 games) is too small to read.
6. 5 undefeated teams, 5 winless teams after 3 games Perfectly split. The winless group is interesting — Arizona Diamondbacks were a 75-win projected team and they're 0-3. Sacramento Athletics were projected even worse. Colorado and SF were expected to lose. But the Diamondbacks being 0-3 while giving up 16 runs is a potential fade candidate this week.
"4. March 29 was a coordinated sharp attack on away teams 9 steam moves in a single day, 7 of them on the away side — that's extremely unusual. Sharp money systematically hammered home favorites across the entire slate. The market had home teams overpriced. Result: 5W-4L on the sharp side, 55.6% — slightly above breakeven but not conclusive yet."
That is extremely dependent on lines. 5-4 is not necessarily a winning edge in baseball.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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@crshrsh
"4. March 29 was a coordinated sharp attack on away teams 9 steam moves in a single day, 7 of them on the away side — that's extremely unusual. Sharp money systematically hammered home favorites across the entire slate. The market had home teams overpriced. Result: 5W-4L on the sharp side, 55.6% — slightly above breakeven but not conclusive yet."
That is extremely dependent on lines. 5-4 is not necessarily a winning edge in baseball.
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