Posted:
#426
Day #28 - Tuesday
12U: KC rl
8U: TB ml
8U: TEX ml
8U: SEA rl
8U: LAD ml
Paying lots of juice today it looks like..
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GR8 - Follow System
Posted:
#429
Gr8nader, remember when I told you my system was almost like yours but I added line movement. check this out.
12U: KC rl 61% bets on them Opened -200, ended -188
8U: TB ml 55% opened -120, ended -120
8U: TEX ml 61% opened -145, ended -164
8U: SEA rl 63% opened -180, ended -170
8U: LAD ml 47%, opened -150, ended -150
Do you see the pattern?
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Posted:
#431
He does. Here you go. Follow both, and make your own plays is what I recommend. Or in some cases don't make a certain play. If these two guys worked together they would make the books go broke. I doubled checked and his record for Aug is correct. He was 6-6 for July
| Johnny_Vegas1 | View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
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Prospect
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 38
Location: |
#65 Posted: 8/7/2013 8:07:43 AM13-5-2 overall +7.37 units. 2-1-1 yesterday. Marlins almost had it as my big dog. 8/1/13: 3-1
8/2/13: 2-0
8/3/13: 2-0-1
8/4/13: 3-1
8/5/13: 1-2
8/6/13: 2-1-1
Morning play to come! |
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Posted:
#432
Quote Originally Posted by Fishtaco02:
Johnny, do you post your plays anywhere? Would love to compare between yours and Gr8 picks.
Johnny, do you post your plays anywhere? Would love to compare between yours and Gr8 picks.
Hey I do, but I have not been able to play my system. I am limited to handicapping while I'm at work only and can't check line movement up to game time. Thats why my record hasn't been stellar. But based on the games Gr8 selected, my theory would have been 5-0.
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Posted:
#433
Quote Originally Posted by Fishtaco02:
Johnny, do you post your plays anywhere? Would love to compare between yours and Gr8 picks.
Johnny, do you post your plays anywhere? Would love to compare between yours and Gr8 picks.
Hey I do, but I have not been able to play my system. I am limited to handicapping while I'm at work only and can't check line movement up to game time. Thats why my record hasn't been stellar. But based on the games Gr8 selected, my theory would have been 5-0.
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Posted:
#434
That's very interesting good sir. Now I want to see the open/end lines for my previous cards and get a larger W/L sample.
Questions:
What amount of line movement (deviation from the open line) is needed for this to be considered a factor? -5 / -10 ?
This strategy requires you to place your bets ___ mins before game time?
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I still don't see how line movement is a beneficial betting tool. What does it indicate? Well, it can indicate that mucho $ came in for or against a particular bet. But what does that mean?
Haven't thought about it/researched it so maybe I'm missing something.
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Posted:
#436
There are a lot of people that say they use line movements, but I also don't know how that can predict a winner. I also don't know how they get that ship into the little bottle, but they do. LOL. Like I said, 2 heads better than one. We are all here to make some $, so working together will benefit ALL of us. Let's see how it plays out. Yesterday was a non-standard deviation for MLB. Happens couple times a year.
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Posted:
#438
Quote Originally Posted by TheguyinSanDiego:
He does. Here you go. Follow both, and make your own plays is what I recommend. Or in some cases don't make a certain play. If these two guys worked together they would make the books go broke. I doubled checked and his record for Aug is correct. He was 6-6 for July
He does. Here you go. Follow both, and make your own plays is what I recommend. Or in some cases don't make a certain play. If these two guys worked together they would make the books go broke. I doubled checked and his record for Aug is correct. He was 6-6 for July
| Johnny_Vegas1 | View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
|
Prospect
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 38
Location: |
#65 Posted: 8/7/2013 8:07:43 AM13-5-2 overall +7.37 units. 2-1-1 yesterday. Marlins almost had it as my big dog. 8/1/13: 3-1
8/2/13: 2-0
8/3/13: 2-0-1
8/4/13: 3-1
8/5/13: 1-2
8/6/13: 2-1-1
Morning play to come! |
Thank you
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Posted:
#442
Quote Originally Posted by Gr8nader:
That's very interesting good sir. Now I want to see the open/end lines for my previous cards and get a larger W/L sample.
That's very interesting good sir. Now I want to see the open/end lines for my previous cards and get a larger W/L sample.
Questions:
What amount of line movement (deviation from the open line) is needed for this to be considered a factor? -5 / -10 ?
This strategy requires you to place your bets ___ mins before game time?
--
I still don't see how line movement is a beneficial betting tool. What does it indicate? Well, it can indicate that mucho $ came in for or against a particular bet. But what does that mean?
Haven't thought about it/researched it so maybe I'm missing something.
Gr8, here are some of the rules of my system. It must meet certain thresholds before I consider it. ONce you have the qualifying games, look at the public bet.
* The favorite has to be over 55% backed by public.
* It must pass +/- 10 cents.
* If the line increase on the fave over 10 cents (e.g. -120 to -130) then fave is the play
* If line decreases on fave over 10 cents (e.g. -130 to -120) then dog is play or pass
*Faves over -200 are disqualifed
*Teams that start as dogs and end up as favorites over a 20 cent increase then that team is disqualifed, (e.g. Toronto today)
* Teams going for road sweeps are disqualified.
*It's very important to look at the movement even 5 min before game time. So its very hard to have a following.
When I really followed this system to a T a couple weeks ago..I garbage you not..i hit 16 in a row..then I rushed 2 plays due to friends pressuring me for plays and lost them, then I won another 8 in a row when I had the talk with them. This theory doesnt work with every game. So the most important piece are the cappers. BOL bro!
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