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denvedder - MLB contest - sides - incredible run

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Posted: #226

@chicubs09

Thanks.

denvedder is having some mean regression now since they've changed their picking style.  Record is 3 - 5 since their incredible run ran out and had their first 0-3 night this season.

44 - 9 = 83%, a 10% drop since the streak ended. 

Today's picks:

PHI -250

MIN -175

SEA -165

NYY -145

_____________________

Glad he's not on my Baltimore play today....LOL.

That Seattle line (and the Yankees line) looks sketchy AF.

Most people on the top 10 MLB leaderboard got rocked the last few days....tread lightly everyone! 

 
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Posted: #227

JUICE KING

paint_help

 
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Posted: #228

Quote Originally Posted by chicubs09:

Phillies-250 Twins-175 Seattle-165 Yankees-145
Thinking of doing 4 team round robin x2's,  definitely not going to play the phillies straight-250.

 
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Posted: #229

Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:

@DeezyAZ81  Mathematically, based on his record, I’m just saying, there could there be a small amount of regression?

Agreed. I also do not like that he seems to be playing mostly heavy favorites now. Haven't been following all season but has that always been his strategy this season? 

 
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Posted: #230

@DeezyAZ81

 He’s been picking the better teams off of losses all season. It had been mostly the Yankees, Dodgers and Philly so yeah you’re gonna get high juice plays. And he wasn’t picking everyday but now he is and throwing teams like Seattle and Minnesota in there like today. 

 

 
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Posted: #231

@KeyElement

 This has been his pattern all season and he seems to have found value.  You cant fudge the contest numbers.

 
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Posted: #232

@MrECapps

 That's fine, as far as the contest goes, but most of the guys on this site are not going to play with real money at those odds.

peace

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #233

Quote Originally Posted by chicubs09:

Quote Originally Posted by chicubs09: Phillies-250 Twins-175 Seattle-165 Yankees-145 Thinking of doing 4 team round robin x2's,  definitely not going to play the phillies straight-250.
I did the 4x2's round robins right now phillies, twins,and  seattle are crushing so it will come down to the yankees for the sweep. should i hedge a little and take atlanta+1.5 ?

 
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Posted: #234

just got going here... woke up to both philly and sea rl win with minn ml (SO GOT nyy ml to close 4tp) (+902) guess i will be watching nyy game closely or hedge prior.... plenty room i hope to make a buck ... good luck all ....

goldfinger 1964
 
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Posted: #235

Denvedder  thanks for the 4-0 sweep and huge round robin winner all easy blowout winnersan_cheersan_worshipan_praisean_clapwinmoneybagan_2drinksthumbs_upan_wooan_happydudean_bouncean_dance

 
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Posted: #236

Denvedder added the dodgers-400  i just saw it now i already had them in pars on my own earlier hope he wins it and goes 5-0.

 
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Posted: #237

Anyone knows who he is on today?

 
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Posted: #238

https://contests.covers.com/kingofcovers/overallleaderboard/searchresults/cdd9afbe-a974-418f-a86f-b13f013c3e1d?ContestId=cdd9afbe-a974-418f-a86f-b13f013c3e1d&League=&SeasonPhase=RegularSeason&ads=false&Username=denvedder

 
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Posted: #239

@LVTruck

 Thanks... what's your gem today?

 
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Posted: #240

Nothing today so far.

 
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Posted: #241

@Bruins4Life

 Looks like he's passing today after going 5-0 yesterday which is good he's not going to force anything.

 
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Posted: #242

Updated record:

49 - 9 = 85%

He went 5 - 0 last night with some high chalk faves...

No plays yet today.

 
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Posted: #243

Regression on the regression.  Moved up to #21 overall +17460 units.  Note that contest units are 500 so this equates to +34.92 units they way most of us would score it.

Chalky but effective.

 
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Posted: #244

@MrECapps

 

I got ripped a new one last night in the MLB contest....but so did most of the leaders the last 4 - 5 days. Once heavy interleague starts, the leaders in the contest (and team experts) get tripped up for about 2 - 3 weeks.

 
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Posted: #245

Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:

@MrECapps   I got ripped a new one last night in the MLB contest....but so did most of the leaders the last 4 - 5 days. Once heavy interleague starts, the leaders in the contest (and team experts) get tripped up for about 2 - 3 weeks.
I noticed you were opposite of some of denvedders plays yesterday were you fading him on purpose or did you think those teams were going to win?

 
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Posted: #246

Pretty sure denvedder will move up again in the contest by virtue of not losing anything today.  

Back to being patient.

 
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Posted: #247

@chicubs09

I'm using an MLB regression theory on my own. I don't even look at denvedder's plays when I'm putting my picks in the contest.

Now real money on the other hand.....     :)

And my Baltimore pick got smoked today. Hoping they win against Clev in the next 3. Real bankroll just lost 8% this weekend.

 
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Posted: #248

@tvigilante2020

 You mentioned that interleague makes things tough on a lot of the contest guys why is that?

 
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Posted: #249

Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:

@chicubs09 I'm using an MLB regression theory on my own. I don't even look at denvedder's plays when I'm putting my picks in the contest. Now real money on the other hand.....     :) And my Baltimore pick got smoked today. Hoping they win against Clev in the next 3. Real bankroll just lost 8% this weekend.
a lot of people got smoked with baltimore today thinking no way they would get swept.

 
 
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Posted: #250

How are people questiong a guy who goes 49-9 ? Chalk or not doesn't matter as long as it wins and his picks win 

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