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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    Burns/Miz Cin/Mke

    12 Next Last»
    Cranky_Hank
    Macwestie1
    smellybunty
    MrBator
    D-Town
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    Posts: 27
    12 Next Last»
     
    Cranky_Hank
    Cranky_Hank
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 11:15 AM ET #1

    That’s a lot of talent today!  A lot of heat too!  Under 7 is the logical bet.

    Miziorowski’s strikeout prop is set at 10 +109.  Cincinnati batting .228 makes it a reasonable expectation.

     

    clover

    Keep at it.
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    That’s a lot of talent today!  A lot of heat too!  Under 7 is the logical bet.

    Miziorowski’s strikeout prop is set at 10 +109.  Cincinnati batting .228 makes it a reasonable expectation.

     

    clover

     
    Macwestie1
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 11:21 AM ET #2

    GL cloveron your play total I like your style but I hate Totals hehe an_razz@Cranky_Hank peace_5

     

    What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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    GL cloveron your play total I like your style but I hate Totals hehe an_razz@Cranky_Hank peace_5

     

     
    Cranky_Hank
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 11:23 AM ET #3

    @Macwestie1

     an_cheers

    Thanks Mac.  Totals aren’t everyone’s cup of tea.

    clover

    Keep at it.
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    @Macwestie1

     an_cheers

    Thanks Mac.  Totals aren’t everyone’s cup of tea.

    clover

     
    smellybunty
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 11:30 AM ET #4

    This is only the 3rd time Wiz has thrown over 100 pitches in a game. The other 2 starts not so good.

    Only reason I bring it up is this guy throws every fast ball like hes trying to throw it through a brick wall and these guys dont throw as many as they use to years ago so maybe it means something maybe not. Burns has been good on the road but bad his last start. Day game with great pitchers tend to lend themselves more to under I think.

    I wann take Miz over 1.5 with + money but more often than  not thats probably a loser. But I do like it. Reds over 1.5 first 5 is +150

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    This is only the 3rd time Wiz has thrown over 100 pitches in a game. The other 2 starts not so good.

    Only reason I bring it up is this guy throws every fast ball like hes trying to throw it through a brick wall and these guys dont throw as many as they use to years ago so maybe it means something maybe not. Burns has been good on the road but bad his last start. Day game with great pitchers tend to lend themselves more to under I think.

    I wann take Miz over 1.5 with + money but more often than  not thats probably a loser. But I do like it. Reds over 1.5 first 5 is +150

     
    Cranky_Hank
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 11:39 AM ET #5

    @smellybunty

     Fastball pitchers usually love the heat.  Nolan Ryan certainly did.  I can see a lot of strikeouts today.  Nothing is certain.

    clover

    Keep at it.
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    @smellybunty

     Fastball pitchers usually love the heat.  Nolan Ryan certainly did.  I can see a lot of strikeouts today.  Nothing is certain.

    clover

     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 11:53 AM ET #6

    In his last 10 starts Jacob Misiorowski’s ERA in the 1st 5 innings is 0.18. He has allowed one run in those 50 innings.

     

    In his last 10 starts Chase Burns’ ERA in the 1st 5 innings is 1.98. He has allowed 11 earned runs in those 50 innings.

     

    I wish that meant we could safely steal as much as we want by betting under 3.5 -120, but it doesn’t.

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    In his last 10 starts Jacob Misiorowski’s ERA in the 1st 5 innings is 0.18. He has allowed one run in those 50 innings.

     

    In his last 10 starts Chase Burns’ ERA in the 1st 5 innings is 1.98. He has allowed 11 earned runs in those 50 innings.

     

    I wish that meant we could safely steal as much as we want by betting under 3.5 -120, but it doesn’t.

     
    D-Town
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 12:05 PM ET #7

    Good luck CH.  an_cheers

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    Good luck CH.  an_cheers

     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 12:19 PM ET #8

    Opened at 6.5 yesterday. Early $ drove it to 7. 

    Sharp $? I don't know.

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    Opened at 6.5 yesterday. Early $ drove it to 7. 

    Sharp $? I don't know.

     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 12:22 PM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by smellybunty:

    This is only the 3rd time Wiz has thrown over 100 pitches in a game. The other 2 starts not so good. Only reason I bring it up is this guy throws every fast ball like hes trying to throw it through a brick wall and these guys dont throw as many as they use to years ago so maybe it means something maybe not. Burns has been good on the road but bad his last start. Day game with great pitchers tend to lend themselves more to under I think. I wann take Miz over 1.5 with + money but more often than  not thats probably a loser. But I do like it. Reds over 1.5 first 5 is +150

    If you watch him pitch, he's not trying that hard. His mechanics are flawless, he's tall, and uses his length accordingly to achieve the perfect plane from release point

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    Quote Originally Posted by smellybunty:

    This is only the 3rd time Wiz has thrown over 100 pitches in a game. The other 2 starts not so good. Only reason I bring it up is this guy throws every fast ball like hes trying to throw it through a brick wall and these guys dont throw as many as they use to years ago so maybe it means something maybe not. Burns has been good on the road but bad his last start. Day game with great pitchers tend to lend themselves more to under I think. I wann take Miz over 1.5 with + money but more often than  not thats probably a loser. But I do like it. Reds over 1.5 first 5 is +150

    If you watch him pitch, he's not trying that hard. His mechanics are flawless, he's tall, and uses his length accordingly to achieve the perfect plane from release point

     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 12:28 PM ET #10

    1st 5 inning parlay for $2,000 to win $10,324...

    Reds/Brewers under 3.5 -120

    Tigers/Rangers under 4 -120

    Padres/Dodgers under 5.5 -120

     

    1st 5 inning parlay for $3,970 to win $34,084...

    Brewers -180

    Reds/Brewers under 3.5 -120

    Tigers/Rangers under 4 -120

    Padres/Dodgers under 5.5 -120

     

    Do I expect to win either of these? Haha.........no, not really.

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    1st 5 inning parlay for $2,000 to win $10,324...

    Reds/Brewers under 3.5 -120

    Tigers/Rangers under 4 -120

    Padres/Dodgers under 5.5 -120

     

    1st 5 inning parlay for $3,970 to win $34,084...

    Brewers -180

    Reds/Brewers under 3.5 -120

    Tigers/Rangers under 4 -120

    Padres/Dodgers under 5.5 -120

     

    Do I expect to win either of these? Haha.........no, not really.

     
    Cranky_Hank
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 12:37 PM ET #11

    @MrBator

     an_clap  clover

    @D-Town

     an_cheers

     

    @undermysac

     You described The Miz perfectly!  He said during an interview that he didn’t really know or care how fast he was throwing, he just wanted strikes.

    an_dance

    Keep at it.
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    @MrBator

     an_clap  clover

    @D-Town

     an_cheers

     

    @undermysac

     You described The Miz perfectly!  He said during an interview that he didn’t really know or care how fast he was throwing, he just wanted strikes.

    an_dance

     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 12:59 PM ET #12

    @Cranky_Hank

     Correct. If he was trying his hardest to throw that fast, he wouldn't be hitting the strike zone consistently 

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    @Cranky_Hank

     Correct. If he was trying his hardest to throw that fast, he wouldn't be hitting the strike zone consistently 

     
    OO7CRUSHER
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 1:28 PM ET #13

    @Cranky_Hank

     clover

    @MrBator

     MrBator, did you pull the trigger on the 2 parlays, or thinking it over? If you did pull the trigger, I hope you nail it.clover

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    @Cranky_Hank

     clover

    @MrBator

     MrBator, did you pull the trigger on the 2 parlays, or thinking it over? If you did pull the trigger, I hope you nail it.clover

     
    smellybunty
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 1:29 PM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    @Cranky_Hank  Correct. If he was trying his hardest to throw that fast, he wouldn't be hitting the strike zone consistently

    He walked 4 last game

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    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    @Cranky_Hank  Correct. If he was trying his hardest to throw that fast, he wouldn't be hitting the strike zone consistently

    He walked 4 last game

     
    winddust
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 1:50 PM ET #15

    Only thing that scares me is 1st 3 games went under and now two tough pitchers everyone wants pump under but really tough all 4 games to go under in series.

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    Only thing that scares me is 1st 3 games went under and now two tough pitchers everyone wants pump under but really tough all 4 games to go under in series.

     
    KasperNV
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 3:09 PM ET #16

    an_brick first 5 under

    Second mouse gets the cheese.
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    an_brick first 5 under

     
    winddust
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 3:10 PM ET #17

    an_lightGreat pitchers flies over garbage pitchers 4-2 finals how books clean houselie

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    an_lightGreat pitchers flies over garbage pitchers 4-2 finals how books clean houselie

     
    winddust
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 3:11 PM ET #18

    @KasperNV

     Books are smiling this morning first phillies now brewers they cleaned flipping house.

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    @KasperNV

     Books are smiling this morning first phillies now brewers they cleaned flipping house.

     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 3:13 PM ET #19

    No walks for Misiorowski today, but 2 pitches got barrel'd up. Also one error on the Brewers part. Only 1 earned for the Mizz who is otherwise pitching very well with 8 k's.

    Welcome to baseball peace_5

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    No walks for Misiorowski today, but 2 pitches got barrel'd up. Also one error on the Brewers part. Only 1 earned for the Mizz who is otherwise pitching very well with 8 k's.

    Welcome to baseball peace_5

     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 3:23 PM ET #20

    I'd like to take this opportunity to apologize to the Milwaukee Brewers organization, their fans, as well as anyone who bet on them today and also anyone who bet under in this game in any way. I caused Jacob Misiorowski to get shelled today and I have to own that. I promise to resume never betting on him so that others may go back to enjoying and/or benefitting from his consistently stellar outings.

     

    - MrBator

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    I'd like to take this opportunity to apologize to the Milwaukee Brewers organization, their fans, as well as anyone who bet on them today and also anyone who bet under in this game in any way. I caused Jacob Misiorowski to get shelled today and I have to own that. I promise to resume never betting on him so that others may go back to enjoying and/or benefitting from his consistently stellar outings.

     

    - MrBator

     
    OneADayJ
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 3:48 PM ET #21

    I like how they didn't charge any of those 4 runs he gave up in the 4th due to the no out Bauers error an_roll_laugh

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    I like how they didn't charge any of those 4 runs he gave up in the 4th due to the no out Bauers error an_roll_laugh

     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 4:04 PM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by OneADayJ:

    I like how they didn't charge any of those 4 runs he gave up in the 4th due to the no out Bauers error

    MLB scoring isn't perfect, but it's how it works.

    In theory, JJ Bleday shouldn't ever of scored on Marte's single. He coulda woulda shoulda been out.

    Suarez singled.

    Lowe popped out.

    Marte singled, Bleday scored, a guy that was "pitched out" but safe on error.

    Then Arroyo struck out. This would hypothetically end the inning if there never was that no out error.

    Mizz gave up a 3 run bomb to Trevino the very next batter. But once again, theoretically he should of never gotten to the batters box. 

    That's how the mlb looks at it in terms of scoring for or against a pitcher.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OneADayJ:

    I like how they didn't charge any of those 4 runs he gave up in the 4th due to the no out Bauers error

    MLB scoring isn't perfect, but it's how it works.

    In theory, JJ Bleday shouldn't ever of scored on Marte's single. He coulda woulda shoulda been out.

    Suarez singled.

    Lowe popped out.

    Marte singled, Bleday scored, a guy that was "pitched out" but safe on error.

    Then Arroyo struck out. This would hypothetically end the inning if there never was that no out error.

    Mizz gave up a 3 run bomb to Trevino the very next batter. But once again, theoretically he should of never gotten to the batters box. 

    That's how the mlb looks at it in terms of scoring for or against a pitcher.

     
    bigred84
    bigred84
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 4:25 PM ET #23

    @winddust

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    bigred84
    bigred84
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 4:25 PM ET #24

    @winddust

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    Cranky_Hank
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2026 - 5:43 PM ET #25

    Miz had 10 k’s yet Brewers still lost.

    It happens.  peace_5

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    Miz had 10 k’s yet Brewers still lost.

    It happens.  peace_5

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