For the record, I think you are a good capper. Not great. But, your insight and knowledge is very good. If you paid more attention to consensus and line movement, you could be a great capper! Just my honest opinion.
This is what I am talking about here. Another monday morning quarterback comment.
A few things:
- i have a real job and can't look at lines all day - i have a wife and 3 kids (2 of whom at 6 months old) - this is a hobby - more often than not, I post my plays very soon after lines are posted so I don't get the benefit of watching lines or knowing consensus - I could not care less who else is playing games I like or find value in. The public can be right and the sharps are often wrong.
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Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:
For the record, I think you are a good capper. Not great. But, your insight and knowledge is very good. If you paid more attention to consensus and line movement, you could be a great capper! Just my honest opinion.
This is what I am talking about here. Another monday morning quarterback comment.
A few things:
- i have a real job and can't look at lines all day - i have a wife and 3 kids (2 of whom at 6 months old) - this is a hobby - more often than not, I post my plays very soon after lines are posted so I don't get the benefit of watching lines or knowing consensus - I could not care less who else is playing games I like or find value in. The public can be right and the sharps are often wrong.
For the record, I think you are a good capper. Not great. But, your insight and knowledge is very good. If you paid more attention to consensus and line movement, you could be a great capper! Just my honest opinion.
Way to go captain hindsight.
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Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:
For the record, I think you are a good capper. Not great. But, your insight and knowledge is very good. If you paid more attention to consensus and line movement, you could be a great capper! Just my honest opinion.
This is what I am talking about here. Another monday morning quarterback comment.
A few things:
- i have a real job and can't look at lines all day - i have a wife and 3 kids (2 of whom at 6 months old) - this is a hobby - more often than not, I post my plays very soon after lines are posted so I don't get the benefit of watching lines or knowing consensus - I could not care less who else is playing games I like or find value in. The public can be right and the sharps are often wrong.
1- I have a real job too!
Let's be real. Looking at lines isn't that hard. Especially in the age of smart phones. You only to have to check a couple of times a day. See where they opened, maybe check in during the day, and right before first pitch.
2- Now, why did you go ahead and do this? Lol, Have you ever heard a married man say "go out and get married!"
3- Good for you! Enjoy! If it's it a hobby, don't be so sensitive about it!
4- Why do that? Are you contractually obligated to making your plays early? I've recently come up with a rule to not make a play unless it's within 30 minutes before first pitch. Now, sometimes, because of social events, I miss out on plays. But, the results have been there!
Different strokes for different folks. But, your response made it seem like you HAD to make your plays early.
5- Yeah, the public wins. Sometimes. Vegas has to give the sheep a little grass every once in a while. So they keep coming back!
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Quote Originally Posted by BirdsOnBat:
This is what I am talking about here. Another monday morning quarterback comment.
A few things:
- i have a real job and can't look at lines all day - i have a wife and 3 kids (2 of whom at 6 months old) - this is a hobby - more often than not, I post my plays very soon after lines are posted so I don't get the benefit of watching lines or knowing consensus - I could not care less who else is playing games I like or find value in. The public can be right and the sharps are often wrong.
1- I have a real job too!
Let's be real. Looking at lines isn't that hard. Especially in the age of smart phones. You only to have to check a couple of times a day. See where they opened, maybe check in during the day, and right before first pitch.
2- Now, why did you go ahead and do this? Lol, Have you ever heard a married man say "go out and get married!"
3- Good for you! Enjoy! If it's it a hobby, don't be so sensitive about it!
4- Why do that? Are you contractually obligated to making your plays early? I've recently come up with a rule to not make a play unless it's within 30 minutes before first pitch. Now, sometimes, because of social events, I miss out on plays. But, the results have been there!
Different strokes for different folks. But, your response made it seem like you HAD to make your plays early.
5- Yeah, the public wins. Sometimes. Vegas has to give the sheep a little grass every once in a while. So they keep coming back!
jdr, making a lot of statements for someone who doesn't post any plays. I'm sure you had Hou yesterday bc of your impeccable track record and insight given.
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jdr, making a lot of statements for someone who doesn't post any plays. I'm sure you had Hou yesterday bc of your impeccable track record and insight given.
Let's be real. Looking at lines isn't that hard. Especially in the age of smart phones. You only to have to check a couple of times a day. See where they opened, maybe check in during the day, and right before first pitch.
4- Why do that? Are you contractually obligated to making your plays early? I've recently come up with a rule to not make a play unless it's within 30 minutes before first pitch. Now, sometimes, because of social events, I miss out on plays. But, the results have been there!
You underestimate how busy I am during the day (during business hours), and the last thing on my mind when I have a few moments is where lines are. This gambling thing just isn't that important to me.
Glad you asked the last part. I post early bc I have found that lines are more likely to be mispriced when they are first posted. I've spent my career in the capital markets domain, so my approach is a bit different than most in that regard. I look for mispriced lines (i.e., implied probability < true probability) and could not care less whether the rest of the market sees it or not.
Sure, are times when the line moves after you play it... I am not looking for the best line that will come to fruition. Only the best line I can get at that moment in time. I cap the games myself and then compare my lines them to the market prices. Then, I play games that qualify. All that matters is I get prices that provide me with a favorable risk/reward profile. Constantly checking lines is degenerate behavior and starts resembling something closer to a habit than a hobby.
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Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:
1- I have a real job too!
Let's be real. Looking at lines isn't that hard. Especially in the age of smart phones. You only to have to check a couple of times a day. See where they opened, maybe check in during the day, and right before first pitch.
4- Why do that? Are you contractually obligated to making your plays early? I've recently come up with a rule to not make a play unless it's within 30 minutes before first pitch. Now, sometimes, because of social events, I miss out on plays. But, the results have been there!
You underestimate how busy I am during the day (during business hours), and the last thing on my mind when I have a few moments is where lines are. This gambling thing just isn't that important to me.
Glad you asked the last part. I post early bc I have found that lines are more likely to be mispriced when they are first posted. I've spent my career in the capital markets domain, so my approach is a bit different than most in that regard. I look for mispriced lines (i.e., implied probability < true probability) and could not care less whether the rest of the market sees it or not.
Sure, are times when the line moves after you play it... I am not looking for the best line that will come to fruition. Only the best line I can get at that moment in time. I cap the games myself and then compare my lines them to the market prices. Then, I play games that qualify. All that matters is I get prices that provide me with a favorable risk/reward profile. Constantly checking lines is degenerate behavior and starts resembling something closer to a habit than a hobby.
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