9/3

To add to yesterday's response.  When your top play is an under and it is 1-1 going into the 10th inning and they score 7 runs in the 10th to go over -- then it just is not your night.  Then you have Baltimore that cannot score more than 2 or 3 runs in 3 games in Colorado.  Then the one game they do score 5 runs they have to do it in the 10th inning.  Then they give up 3 in the bottom of the 10th to lose the game as well to one of the worst teams while they are fighting for a playoff spot.

These are simply the things that happen in MLB over a long season.  The value is on unders a lot and the extra innings fake runners can kill that.  This coupled with the way so many pitchers are used now that 'force' a manger to gamble on the next pitcher he uses being able to continue to shut down a team that the previous 1, 2, or 3 pitchers have shut down.  The deeper you get into the weaker pitchers the more likely MLB starters will be able to hit them.

Then you have the 'September Effect' coming with all of those variables coupled with 'tax season' when the favorites will be charged extra juice.

This is not complaints.  It is just to point out the reasons that there can be wild swings in MLB.  It is already the hardest sport for the better team to win in.  For example, in MLB the outcome of a game is the most random of any other sport.  It is much closer to a coin flip than others are.  In the NFL the better team will win a tad over 58%, NBA, 58%, soccer a bit over 57%, NHL a bit over 55%.  In MLB the better team will win only 53.5% of the time.  So, you are already having to pick edges where a coin flip is almost as good.

If you strip the luck out of each sport and compare the teams in each sport to see how far apart the teams are you will see on a bell curve almost all teams in MLB are between 38% - 62%.  NFL for comparison is 21% - 79%.  So, MLB teams are stacked well on top of each other.  NFL teams are spread across the entire field.  

Reasons for this are not just how much better the teams are themselves.  But how much the games themselves bounce around.  

In MLB, the better team is 0.7 runs better.  Even in soccer a much lower scoring game the better team is 0.73 goals better.  In the NFL the better team is 5.79 points better.  

The swings, or bounces, in an MLB is about 4.35 runs.  This is variance on just luck or bad hops, a windy night, a locked in guy, etc.  Soccer will bounce by only 1.82 goals.  NFL will swing by only 14.72 points.

So, it may be the same weight on a coin, but MLB shakes the entire table by about 2.5 times harder.

A major reason is that the best players have a much smaller effect on the outcomes of a game than in other sports.  

In NFL one player can be 22% of the entire team. NBA 19%.  In the MLB it is only 13% of the time.  The best pitcher will start 18% of the games, your best hitter takes 11% of all the at-bats.  Even 9-man split is like 11%.  For example, you cannot bat someone like Aaron Judge four times in a row but Josh Allen touches the ball every offensive play.  Pitchers need four days of rest.

But in the NBA, NFL, NHL, or Soccer you can much easily funnel the whole game through your best player.  MLB is the only sport where the rules stop you from doing that.  

You can see this when you analyze how often the best team in each sport win the title.  In MLB it is once every 6 years, in NFL it is every 4.7 years, in NBA it is every 2.8 years, in Soccer it is every 1.9 years.

So, you need to understand the variance in the MLB's long season and why that variance is there to start with.  Then you need to understand why late in the season as teams experiment and playoffs are already more decided and the variance is even more exaggerated.

If you cannot understand or deal with this it can make it very frustrating.

It is also one of the reasons to be very careful going into September.

655-637            +2265

1.5U PIT -152

1.5U CHW 1st5 O4.5 -105

TB 1st5 -.5 +116

ATH 1st5 U4 +106

Good luck Raiders.  

No need to explain anything! Thanx for time and effort on your posted selections!  

@Raiders22

 Twins was my gut punch yesterday they were all i needed to hit a 5 leg it was 6-6 bottom of 11 runners  on 1st and 3rd 0 outs get nothing  then Detroit  score 5 in top of 12 

@Raiders22

@countrybob

Ouch!  I saw that 

Oof CBob… more great info Raiders thx u r the best, have an awesome day and rest of the year!!!  

Love the occasional write ups good luck 22

I feel your pain. Last night I had the Angels for a 4-0 night. They tie the game up late 1-1. 10th inning, Yanks loaded the bases. 2 outs and a 1-2 count on the catcher wells. 1 strike away from going into the bottom of the 10th 1-1. Wells singles, and the next thing you know, the Yankees put up 5 runs. Angels get 2 in the 10th, but I go 3-1. 

Better luck today.

Good Luck 

New pitcher: walk, walk, double -- 1 run in and guys 2nd & 3rd and no outs.  New pitcher again.

Crazy part about that under you placed is that it never would have happened if you had the over

@JFEEZEE 

Absolutely 

The thing is I prefer to feel like I had the game figured correctly without having to get 'lucky' and just got 'unlucky'.

@Raiders22