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7/3 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Qncyk1

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 1239

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 1:37 PM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by Handicapper33:

You obviously understand the inside of the game much more than me. I am more of a box score player and play on streaks. Like Detroit has the best ERA in the league over the last 30 games at like 2.46 or something like that but they cant hit for anything right now unless Cabrera and Fielder are hitting but because they are Detroit and have some of the big names they get over valued so when a team that is hitting well and those guys dont hit they lose. Pitt still doesnt get the respect they deserve because they aren't the Yankees. Boston is extremely overrated while Oakland is underrated but like I said you know the game much more than me.

some of the best cappers out there dont factor in streaks.

i dont understand it.

i dont ever get in the way of a hot team nor do i back a cold team.

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 1:40 PM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Where's the value in taking SEA ????

I understand the angle of worst team being favored over better team,but there's plenty of better options today aren't there ????

I saw value at the opening number of -120. My model has this game at SEA -149. Even though King Felix is coming off a career high in pitch count, he's always been a work horse. He should certainly win more than 54.5% of the time at home against an offense playing on the west coast that ranks #27 against righties on the season.

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 1:42 PM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

some of the best cappers out there dont factor in streaks.

i dont understand it.

i dont ever get in the way of a hot team nor do i back a cold team.

I stayed away from Milwaukee and the Under yesterday because I liked the way Miami's offense looked last week. Sure enough they got off to a 5-2 start and the over easily hit. Unfortunately the Brewers came back and got the win. But I agree with you, there are times when you just shouldn't mess with a hot or cold team.

KingScorpio

Hall of Fame

Joined: Nov, 2005

Posts: 24465

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 1:43 PM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

So are you saying bettors should still take SEA up to -149 ????

There is no 100% cappers in the world

Brave3110

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 186

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 1:43 PM ET #55

Hey Si1ly, mad respect for you bro...

Any opinion on the MIA/MILK game?... im leaning brewers... wanted to see your view on the game before i pull the trigger... thanks in advance and GL!!

hoopsvader

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 6704

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 1:44 PM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

some of the best cappers out there dont factor in streaks.

i dont understand it.

i dont ever get in the way of a hot team nor do i back a cold team.

Minn won 4 so far
Philly lost 5
Houston lost 5
Cubs won 4
Mil won 3
Zona and Col lost 3 in a row

Go Green

Blue_Chips

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 14091

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 1:48 PM ET #57

nuggins

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 4546

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 1:49 PM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

some of the best cappers out there dont factor in streaks.

i dont understand it.

i dont ever get in the way of a hot team nor do i back a cold team.

Same thoughts...

I made a shit ton off of Col when they were on that monster streak a few years back when the went to the WS

And a good bit on KC's big losing streak earlier this year.

I play a 'Rule of 3' ...I will play on a team that has won 3 in a row and against a team on a 3 game spiral... obv. there are particular matchup factors involved at times but it's been a mainstay nugz system for years

hoopsvader

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 6704

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 1:50 PM ET #59

Quote Originally Posted by nuggins:

Same thoughts...

so what are the plays today then for teams on a streak

Go Green

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 1:51 PM ET #60

Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

So are you saying bettors should still take SEA up to -149 ????

I guess in theory, but there's certainly a margin of error that you have to factor into the output. Generally speaking I look for 35 cents of value as a benchmark. I'm playing this game on a narrow margin by my standards.

keepitstrict

All-Star

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 11114

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 2:31 PM ET #61

hoopsvader

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 6704

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 2:46 PM ET #62

No Ramirez or Stanton, whats the play for Mil?

?@clarkspencer

Updated lineup #2: Reyes ss, Solano 3b, Dobbs rf, Morrison lf, Ruggiano cf, Infante 2b, G. Sanchez 1b, Buck c, A. Sanchez p

Go Green

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 2:50 PM ET #63

Quote Originally Posted by hoopsvader:

No Ramirez or Stanton, whats the play for Mil?

?@clarkspencer

Updated lineup #2: Reyes ss, Solano 3b, Dobbs rf, Morrison lf, Ruggiano cf, Infante 2b, G. Sanchez 1b, Buck c, A. Sanchez p

Playing the Brewers.

MGD

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 1529

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 5:05 PM ET #64

si1ly - I believe Bartolo Colon left his last start early due to some sort of oblique strain. Do you recall? He is as out of shape as I have ever seen him, if that is the case, I am willing to bet he still isn't 100% and this gets shelled. Thoughts?

MGD

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 1529

Posted: Jul. 3, 2012 - 5:31 PM ET #65

Yep, just confirmed. He is so fat and out of shape there is no way he has recovered fully. He is listed at 5' 11" and 265 lbs, add another 20 lbs to that I'd say! GL!

Colon, who left after two innings against San Diego, was rocked for five runs and nine hits in five innings in his previous start at Colorado - but earned the victory.