4-3 Sunday for a 1 unit profit. Unlucky on Atlanta, but chips fell right on the NYY and CLE game.
The most popular plays today SF and DET are very square plays and that worries me despite liking them both as much as the next degen. Every man and his dog will be on them especially DET, which makes think at least one of these two underdogs (METS / NYY) will get a win just because it's baseball and August. I know sounds silly right, going against all your logic and the stats, but how often does Baseball shove logic and stats in your face? I would say fairly often.
More than 7 points swing in line in last few hours against either or both, I'm going other side. So it will be a play against SF and DET or no play on either for me.
I'll lock in the following now.
Monday 4 August 2014
LAA +111 1U Richards has been disappointing of late and I think tonight will be a big test for him to return to form and LAA to show their dominance of fellow LA counterparts. He is backed up by one of the most impressive hitting sides in the league. I got burned by Richards in his last start, but I'm willing to give him another go against 'perhaps' softer bats in LAD.
TB +1361U Value play. Alex Cobb has been on fire and can compete well against a team in OAK that is 5-5 in its last 10 starts against mainly poorer opposition in TEX and HOU. See what happened when they came up against KC? For TB to make it post season they have strut their stuff this 10 game away trip. They will want things to get off to a good start tonight.
GLA
0
YTD 102-95
Profit +39.3% of Starting Bank Roll
4-3 Sunday for a 1 unit profit. Unlucky on Atlanta, but chips fell right on the NYY and CLE game.
The most popular plays today SF and DET are very square plays and that worries me despite liking them both as much as the next degen. Every man and his dog will be on them especially DET, which makes think at least one of these two underdogs (METS / NYY) will get a win just because it's baseball and August. I know sounds silly right, going against all your logic and the stats, but how often does Baseball shove logic and stats in your face? I would say fairly often.
More than 7 points swing in line in last few hours against either or both, I'm going other side. So it will be a play against SF and DET or no play on either for me.
I'll lock in the following now.
Monday 4 August 2014
LAA +111 1U Richards has been disappointing of late and I think tonight will be a big test for him to return to form and LAA to show their dominance of fellow LA counterparts. He is backed up by one of the most impressive hitting sides in the league. I got burned by Richards in his last start, but I'm willing to give him another go against 'perhaps' softer bats in LAD.
TB +1361U Value play. Alex Cobb has been on fire and can compete well against a team in OAK that is 5-5 in its last 10 starts against mainly poorer opposition in TEX and HOU. See what happened when they came up against KC? For TB to make it post season they have strut their stuff this 10 game away trip. They will want things to get off to a good start tonight.
^Hey Money. Nice to see you again. I'm betting light - 1 unit for each. I wouldn't suggest you parlay them, but that's just me. I dislike parlays. I make plays to cover season not for quick money or anything like that unless I make a big play which I have done successfully on 4 occasions. But it's your money, do as you like. I am probably more confident about TB than I am LAA because of Richards poor away sliders last time out. TB has better value IMO.
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^Hey Money. Nice to see you again. I'm betting light - 1 unit for each. I wouldn't suggest you parlay them, but that's just me. I dislike parlays. I make plays to cover season not for quick money or anything like that unless I make a big play which I have done successfully on 4 occasions. But it's your money, do as you like. I am probably more confident about TB than I am LAA because of Richards poor away sliders last time out. TB has better value IMO.
Mets gave up the lead twice. Their strong feature being the bullpen lose it for em. MET Relief pitcher in 9th with 2 outs 2 strikes, gives a beautifully place strike zone ball which Panda hits deep.
Should have stuck with my system which showed a SF win and not thought too much about it. Glad though 'Loaded' got his big play today. I won't be going against him again anytime soon. Live and ya learn.
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NYM
Mets gave up the lead twice. Their strong feature being the bullpen lose it for em. MET Relief pitcher in 9th with 2 outs 2 strikes, gives a beautifully place strike zone ball which Panda hits deep.
Should have stuck with my system which showed a SF win and not thought too much about it. Glad though 'Loaded' got his big play today. I won't be going against him again anytime soon. Live and ya learn.
One of the reasons why I upgraded my Giants play was because I thought you liked it lol. You probably saw something last minute that swayed you to the Mets, which is cool. In fact, as it got closer to game time, I began to think that Mets +1.5 (-150) was the right play - and it woulda been. Nonetheless, close game, both teams with their share of opportunities, but only one could win.
Gonna join you with the Angels tonight. Dodgers only managed to score 2 runs off of 7 hits against Edwin Jackson through 6 innings last game. Richards is no Jackson lol. I just hope he brings his stuff tonight, after two sub-par starts.
Let's get em tonight bud!
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One of the reasons why I upgraded my Giants play was because I thought you liked it lol. You probably saw something last minute that swayed you to the Mets, which is cool. In fact, as it got closer to game time, I began to think that Mets +1.5 (-150) was the right play - and it woulda been. Nonetheless, close game, both teams with their share of opportunities, but only one could win.
Gonna join you with the Angels tonight. Dodgers only managed to score 2 runs off of 7 hits against Edwin Jackson through 6 innings last game. Richards is no Jackson lol. I just hope he brings his stuff tonight, after two sub-par starts.
1-2 yesterday. The TB loss last night was disappointing. Balfour was atrocious as he has been all season for TB. To be honest TB struggled all night just to stay in it, but had a supremely good opportunity top of the 9th, runner on third and a crappy bunt straight to the pitcher. The more I see of TB the more I dislike Joe Madden's managerial style. Gets himself thrown out when the team need stability and a cool head. He thinks he's smart making some bizarre decisions with the bullpen and then showing himself up by letting it go with the Ump. In my books he is reckless.
Tuesday 5 August 2014
Big card again experimenting with some stuff and playing 1U. Some great underdog chances which I have included below.
1-2 yesterday. The TB loss last night was disappointing. Balfour was atrocious as he has been all season for TB. To be honest TB struggled all night just to stay in it, but had a supremely good opportunity top of the 9th, runner on third and a crappy bunt straight to the pitcher. The more I see of TB the more I dislike Joe Madden's managerial style. Gets himself thrown out when the team need stability and a cool head. He thinks he's smart making some bizarre decisions with the bullpen and then showing himself up by letting it go with the Ump. In my books he is reckless.
Tuesday 5 August 2014
Big card again experimenting with some stuff and playing 1U. Some great underdog chances which I have included below.
One of the reasons why I upgraded my Giants play was because I thought you liked it lol. You probably saw something last minute that swayed you to the Mets, which is cool. In fact, as it got closer to game time, I began to think that Mets +1.5 (-150) was the right play - and it woulda been. Nonetheless, close game, both teams with their share of opportunities, but only one could win.
Gonna join you with the Angels tonight. Dodgers only managed to score 2 runs off of 7 hits against Edwin Jackson through 6 innings last game. Richards is no Jackson lol. I just hope he brings his stuff tonight, after two sub-par starts.
Let's get em tonight bud!
I would have had a 2-1 day yesterday if I went with my SF system play. I should never have reneged, especially since this very good cappper Unloaded was on it, haha, but cest la vie.
Richards was outstanding last night and LAA bats were solid as I expected even against Greinke. Good luck tonight buddy. I hope DET and the rest of your plays do well.
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Quote Originally Posted by FullyLoaded:
One of the reasons why I upgraded my Giants play was because I thought you liked it lol. You probably saw something last minute that swayed you to the Mets, which is cool. In fact, as it got closer to game time, I began to think that Mets +1.5 (-150) was the right play - and it woulda been. Nonetheless, close game, both teams with their share of opportunities, but only one could win.
Gonna join you with the Angels tonight. Dodgers only managed to score 2 runs off of 7 hits against Edwin Jackson through 6 innings last game. Richards is no Jackson lol. I just hope he brings his stuff tonight, after two sub-par starts.
Let's get em tonight bud!
I would have had a 2-1 day yesterday if I went with my SF system play. I should never have reneged, especially since this very good cappper Unloaded was on it, haha, but cest la vie.
Richards was outstanding last night and LAA bats were solid as I expected even against Greinke. Good luck tonight buddy. I hope DET and the rest of your plays do well.
I would have had a 2-1 day yesterday if I went with my SF system play. I should never have reneged, especially since this very good cappper Unloaded was on it, haha, but cest la vie.
Richards was outstanding last night and LAA bats were solid as I expected even against Greinke. Good luck tonight buddy. I hope DET and the rest of your plays do well.
Wait. Who's Unloaded? I don't think I know him, nor do I consider him a very good capper. He's just lucky.
Yaa. LAA was a solid pick. Glad I tailed you on that one. Thanks bud!
GL on your plays tonight
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Quote Originally Posted by Learnersrealm:
I would have had a 2-1 day yesterday if I went with my SF system play. I should never have reneged, especially since this very good cappper Unloaded was on it, haha, but cest la vie.
Richards was outstanding last night and LAA bats were solid as I expected even against Greinke. Good luck tonight buddy. I hope DET and the rest of your plays do well.
Wait. Who's Unloaded? I don't think I know him, nor do I consider him a very good capper. He's just lucky.
Yaa. LAA was a solid pick. Glad I tailed you on that one. Thanks bud!
I know. Very strange. Don't like all that bounce in the line and that slow climb in favour of NYY but what can you do. I feel DET is in a better spot today though, having lost yesterday and given the pitching matchup. We shall see. Hopefully my other plays can bail me out and minimize the damage in case they lose. I got CIN F5 (small play) so hopefully they're up early then lose it late so that we're both happy. TEX, BAL, and SD look like solid dogs. Only thing that worries me is that we both have a lotta road teams on today's card. I like TEX and SD but decided to hold off just for that very reason. Still learning and experimenting, so I'm curious to see how that will play out.
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I know. Very strange. Don't like all that bounce in the line and that slow climb in favour of NYY but what can you do. I feel DET is in a better spot today though, having lost yesterday and given the pitching matchup. We shall see. Hopefully my other plays can bail me out and minimize the damage in case they lose. I got CIN F5 (small play) so hopefully they're up early then lose it late so that we're both happy. TEX, BAL, and SD look like solid dogs. Only thing that worries me is that we both have a lotta road teams on today's card. I like TEX and SD but decided to hold off just for that very reason. Still learning and experimenting, so I'm curious to see how that will play out.
Hey Fully, you know I noticed that just a little while ago too how every play I have today except CLE is an away team. Oops! It's August and its time for away success. Surely the teams are accustomed to playing away now. See how things go tonight. If it's a downright slaughter I may need to look at the Home value more in my assessments. Sounds formal doesn't? Assessments. Like that word...makes it seem like I know the fook what I'm doing. Most of my choices since I started playing 1U have been have been away teams. I can't believe I haven't really caught onto this before, but it makes sense since Bookies always incorporate a lot into the home side values based on the fact, that well, they are at home. Duh. Wow you're a genius Fully Loaded lol. See how this unfolds. If it turns ugly I may need to do some tweaks to incorporate more of the home value. This is like what they teach in Betting 101. Lets see, I do figure home sides batting stats as compared to the opponents away bat stats. I also look at how, (but don't proportion hefty weight) into how the given team fairs with the umpire based on their respective home and away status.So that's two things.
The only thing I don't isolate is the pitchers home and away record because it is mixed up in just one Last 5 H/A record amongst many other pitcher stats I research including performance against opposition, NPERA and dollar value. I may need to isolate each pitcher's record home and away respectively and throw that into the mix.
The other thing I am seriously contemplating is just taking the Underdogs which spit out and forgetting all together the favourites. Lots to contemplate and do before even before next season to get this baby in fine working order!
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Hey Fully, you know I noticed that just a little while ago too how every play I have today except CLE is an away team. Oops! It's August and its time for away success. Surely the teams are accustomed to playing away now. See how things go tonight. If it's a downright slaughter I may need to look at the Home value more in my assessments. Sounds formal doesn't? Assessments. Like that word...makes it seem like I know the fook what I'm doing. Most of my choices since I started playing 1U have been have been away teams. I can't believe I haven't really caught onto this before, but it makes sense since Bookies always incorporate a lot into the home side values based on the fact, that well, they are at home. Duh. Wow you're a genius Fully Loaded lol. See how this unfolds. If it turns ugly I may need to do some tweaks to incorporate more of the home value. This is like what they teach in Betting 101. Lets see, I do figure home sides batting stats as compared to the opponents away bat stats. I also look at how, (but don't proportion hefty weight) into how the given team fairs with the umpire based on their respective home and away status.So that's two things.
The only thing I don't isolate is the pitchers home and away record because it is mixed up in just one Last 5 H/A record amongst many other pitcher stats I research including performance against opposition, NPERA and dollar value. I may need to isolate each pitcher's record home and away respectively and throw that into the mix.
The other thing I am seriously contemplating is just taking the Underdogs which spit out and forgetting all together the favourites. Lots to contemplate and do before even before next season to get this baby in fine working order!
Oh I forgot to mention based on your TEX and SD comments. Tex line has come in Huge and SD is therebouts. I don't think cappers know where they want to go with the latter. So I'm not too dissuaded by those choices despite their being away teams. It's about beating the line for me. That's my priority above all while I get things down ready to pillage next season (or even later this season if I can settle on fewer plays and the unit value).
Let's break it down:
BAL +106 now -104! Very good. TEX +122 now +100 Excellent CLE -113 now -114 Thereabouts. HOU -115 now -111.I would have thought that this and SD above all others would have improved in value, but hasn't. Not good. SD +107 now +108See above KC -116 now -128!!!! excellent.
Differentiating between Line at time of play and Closing line will be more telling over the long term rather than looking at a line in the interim.
You can see I have a lot on today haha
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Oh I forgot to mention based on your TEX and SD comments. Tex line has come in Huge and SD is therebouts. I don't think cappers know where they want to go with the latter. So I'm not too dissuaded by those choices despite their being away teams. It's about beating the line for me. That's my priority above all while I get things down ready to pillage next season (or even later this season if I can settle on fewer plays and the unit value).
Let's break it down:
BAL +106 now -104! Very good. TEX +122 now +100 Excellent CLE -113 now -114 Thereabouts. HOU -115 now -111.I would have thought that this and SD above all others would have improved in value, but hasn't. Not good. SD +107 now +108See above KC -116 now -128!!!! excellent.
Differentiating between Line at time of play and Closing line will be more telling over the long term rather than looking at a line in the interim.
Home/away splits and how they factor into lines - that's something that I've been paying slightly closer attention to as of late. Teams generally tend to perform better (as a whole) at home vs away, as we all know. I think the main underlying reason is because most players have that eagerness/determination to perform and please their fans/city, along with the home field support/advantage that they're receiving.
I do my best to factor in both team and pitcher home/away stats, along with overall and last 5 batting and pitching stats, as well as some consideration to historical stats and day/night splits. It's important not to get too carried away though. It's not always that you will find the "ideal" scenario and even then there's no certainty.
So ya, much like you, these are some of the things that I consider while doing my "assessment".
To me, it's all about making tweeks and refinements to your already existing betting system/strategy.
Afterall, we're all living in a learner's realm.
Oh and nice review of the line moves. It'll be interesting to see how you will do with your purchased lines vs how you would've made out with the closing lines.
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Hahaha "genius". You're too kind lol.
Home/away splits and how they factor into lines - that's something that I've been paying slightly closer attention to as of late. Teams generally tend to perform better (as a whole) at home vs away, as we all know. I think the main underlying reason is because most players have that eagerness/determination to perform and please their fans/city, along with the home field support/advantage that they're receiving.
I do my best to factor in both team and pitcher home/away stats, along with overall and last 5 batting and pitching stats, as well as some consideration to historical stats and day/night splits. It's important not to get too carried away though. It's not always that you will find the "ideal" scenario and even then there's no certainty.
So ya, much like you, these are some of the things that I consider while doing my "assessment".
To me, it's all about making tweeks and refinements to your already existing betting system/strategy.
Afterall, we're all living in a learner's realm.
Oh and nice review of the line moves. It'll be interesting to see how you will do with your purchased lines vs how you would've made out with the closing lines.
You have hit the nail on the head about home teams, but when all is said and done isn't it just 52% win come from home sides or something in that ballpark? So aren't they overvalued in the long run when bookies I believe give more than 2% or whatever extra value on the home side? Yeh, I'm on day/ night splits too. Batting trends over last 5 I haven't really taken into account I'm afraid as I believe any team can strut their stuff on any given day and against nearly any given pitcher. I look more at the likelihood they find their bats by categorising teams according to overall runs scored this season home and away respectively. But of course this has its disadvantages as well. I may need to look more at recent batting trends. I think once you do the study you get a good feel which of your picks have the better chances, and play them according to their perceived value, which unfortunately unlike you I haven't really done except on very few situational plays.
Speaking of situational plays.... Do you think LAA want to smack some chops tonight against LAD's recent woes. I like that LAA RL. I havent broken down the game at all, but its just one of those feelings. Or perhaps its because of Richards solid outing last night I am feeling this way about LAA chances against the pitching machine in Kershaw. This is LAD's big chance to set things right. Can they do it? I'm going to break this game down to see.
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You have hit the nail on the head about home teams, but when all is said and done isn't it just 52% win come from home sides or something in that ballpark? So aren't they overvalued in the long run when bookies I believe give more than 2% or whatever extra value on the home side? Yeh, I'm on day/ night splits too. Batting trends over last 5 I haven't really taken into account I'm afraid as I believe any team can strut their stuff on any given day and against nearly any given pitcher. I look more at the likelihood they find their bats by categorising teams according to overall runs scored this season home and away respectively. But of course this has its disadvantages as well. I may need to look more at recent batting trends. I think once you do the study you get a good feel which of your picks have the better chances, and play them according to their perceived value, which unfortunately unlike you I haven't really done except on very few situational plays.
Speaking of situational plays.... Do you think LAA want to smack some chops tonight against LAD's recent woes. I like that LAA RL. I havent broken down the game at all, but its just one of those feelings. Or perhaps its because of Richards solid outing last night I am feeling this way about LAA chances against the pitching machine in Kershaw. This is LAD's big chance to set things right. Can they do it? I'm going to break this game down to see.
*Kershaw goes long into the game allowing exceptionally few runs. *LAD shouldn't need to use their weakish bullpen. *Kershaw's team is 15-5 SU last 20 games and lost JUST 3 games this year with Kershaw on mound. * Santiago doesn't go long into game. *Kershaw has been a money making machine nearly all year.
LAD Cons
*In their last meeting in 2011, Kershaw got handed a new one by LAA giving up 6 ERs *LAA bullpen is marginally more successful than LAD. *Santiago has very good recent H/A record (only giving 1 away to DET last start) but doesn't go long into games. * LAA away batting record far exceeds LAD home record. *LAD's record against Lefties is particularly bad.
Any thoughts guys on this match up?
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LAD-LAA Match Up
LAD Pros
*Kershaw goes long into the game allowing exceptionally few runs. *LAD shouldn't need to use their weakish bullpen. *Kershaw's team is 15-5 SU last 20 games and lost JUST 3 games this year with Kershaw on mound. * Santiago doesn't go long into game. *Kershaw has been a money making machine nearly all year.
LAD Cons
*In their last meeting in 2011, Kershaw got handed a new one by LAA giving up 6 ERs *LAA bullpen is marginally more successful than LAD. *Santiago has very good recent H/A record (only giving 1 away to DET last start) but doesn't go long into games. * LAA away batting record far exceeds LAD home record. *LAD's record against Lefties is particularly bad.
I suppose the win rate at home vs away isn't a whole lot different but they add up. I guess what I was trying to get at is that the law of averages rarely sees all away teams sweeping the board - same would go for the opposite (all home teams) - so for us to load up on the away teams kinda scares me.
As for the battle of LA, I honestly have no feel. I see some great value in the Angels but I'm also not prepared to fade Kershaw so it's a pass for me. Perhaps others can provide their insight.
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I suppose the win rate at home vs away isn't a whole lot different but they add up. I guess what I was trying to get at is that the law of averages rarely sees all away teams sweeping the board - same would go for the opposite (all home teams) - so for us to load up on the away teams kinda scares me.
As for the battle of LA, I honestly have no feel. I see some great value in the Angels but I'm also not prepared to fade Kershaw so it's a pass for me. Perhaps others can provide their insight.
Let's bounce back! 
Very strange. Don't like all that bounce in the line and that slow climb in favour of NYY but what can you do. I feel DET is in a better spot today though, having lost yesterday and given the pitching matchup. We shall see. Hopefully my other plays can bail me out and minimize the damage in case they lose. I got CIN F5 (small play) so hopefully they're up early then lose it late so that we're both happy. 
TEX, BAL, and SD look like solid dogs. Only thing that worries me is that we both have a lotta road teams on today's card. I like TEX and SD but decided to hold off just for that very reason. Still learning and experimenting, so I'm curious to see how that will play out.
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