@Quiet_Whale
Math bro
G.L
Correction / Transparency Update
Good catch by the community. After auditing, I found the spreadsheets got tangled one recap had a personal play mixed in and another was tallied as “to win” instead of “risk.” When I cross-checked against my secondary ledger, the mistake showed up.
Ledger is now fully corrected:
YTD: 6–4 (+0.12u)
Audits like this are part of the process, transparency is the whole point. The goal isn’t to look perfect, it’s to stay accountable, disciplined, and sharp. Errors get caught, corrected, and we move forward tighter than before.
Eyes on the next edge.
Correction / Transparency Update
Good catch by the community. After auditing, I found the spreadsheets got tangled one recap had a personal play mixed in and another was tallied as “to win” instead of “risk.” When I cross-checked against my secondary ledger, the mistake showed up.
Ledger is now fully corrected:
YTD: 6–4 (+0.12u)
Audits like this are part of the process, transparency is the whole point. The goal isn’t to look perfect, it’s to stay accountable, disciplined, and sharp. Errors get caught, corrected, and we move forward tighter than before.
Eyes on the next edge.
Quiet Whale – Aug 30
YTD: 6–4 (+0.12u)
Play: Milwaukee Brewers ML +125 (2u)
Cutoff: Play only at +120 or better.
Rationale:
Quinn Priester (11–2, 3.44 ERA) starts for Milwaukee against Kevin Gausman (8–10, 3.87 ERA). Priester has been steady, while Gausman’s results have slipped compared to prior seasons.
The Brewers’ bullpen is deeper even with Trevor Megill on the IL, as Abner Uribe takes over late-inning duties. Toronto’s relief corps is thinner with Yimi García sidelined for the year.
Market handle outpaces bet count (+28% diff), confirming sharper money on Milwaukee. Circa shaded Toronto lower while retail books pushed higher, creating value on the dog.
Quiet Whale – Aug 30
YTD: 6–4 (+0.12u)
Play: Milwaukee Brewers ML +125 (2u)
Cutoff: Play only at +120 or better.
Rationale:
Quinn Priester (11–2, 3.44 ERA) starts for Milwaukee against Kevin Gausman (8–10, 3.87 ERA). Priester has been steady, while Gausman’s results have slipped compared to prior seasons.
The Brewers’ bullpen is deeper even with Trevor Megill on the IL, as Abner Uribe takes over late-inning duties. Toronto’s relief corps is thinner with Yimi García sidelined for the year.
Market handle outpaces bet count (+28% diff), confirming sharper money on Milwaukee. Circa shaded Toronto lower while retail books pushed higher, creating value on the dog.
@Quiet_Whale
Result: Brewers ML +125 (Win)
Final: Brewers 4, Blue Jays 1
Day: 1–0 (+2.50u)
MLB YTD Record: 7–4 (+2.62u)
Milwaukee cashed as a live dog at +125, with the position supported by both market shading and handle confirmation. The setup was there and the game result followed through.
Ledger stays transparent, every position logged, win or lose.
Eyes on the next opportunity.
@Quiet_Whale
Result: Brewers ML +125 (Win)
Final: Brewers 4, Blue Jays 1
Day: 1–0 (+2.50u)
MLB YTD Record: 7–4 (+2.62u)
Milwaukee cashed as a live dog at +125, with the position supported by both market shading and handle confirmation. The setup was there and the game result followed through.
Ledger stays transparent, every position logged, win or lose.
Eyes on the next opportunity.
Quiet Whale – Sept 1
YTD: 7–4 (+2.62u)
Play: Oakland Athletics ML +122 (1.5u)
Cutoff: Play only at +120 or better
Rationale:
Sonny Gray goes for St. Louis against Oakland’s rookie lefty Luis Morales. The edge lies less in starting pitching and more in context. St. Louis is without Arenado and Donovan, taking two key bats out of their lineup. Oakland’s lineup is confirmed and intact outside of Kurtz, and the bullpen enters fresher.
The market has shown resistance: despite St. Louis taking the majority of tickets and handle, Circa shaded Cardinals lower while retail books pushed higher. That divergence confirms sharper interest on Oakland.
Neutral weather and a balanced ump assignment support the play. With market resistance, lineup context, and a healthy bullpen edge, Oakland qualifies as a syndicate fire.
Quiet Whale – Sept 1
YTD: 7–4 (+2.62u)
Play: Oakland Athletics ML +122 (1.5u)
Cutoff: Play only at +120 or better
Rationale:
Sonny Gray goes for St. Louis against Oakland’s rookie lefty Luis Morales. The edge lies less in starting pitching and more in context. St. Louis is without Arenado and Donovan, taking two key bats out of their lineup. Oakland’s lineup is confirmed and intact outside of Kurtz, and the bullpen enters fresher.
The market has shown resistance: despite St. Louis taking the majority of tickets and handle, Circa shaded Cardinals lower while retail books pushed higher. That divergence confirms sharper interest on Oakland.
Neutral weather and a balanced ump assignment support the play. With market resistance, lineup context, and a healthy bullpen edge, Oakland qualifies as a syndicate fire.
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