first sure play is:
Pitt Rl -1.5 +160
the good:
this ump loves home teams, home favs, and specifically pittsburg and seems to tilt against cleve? and is 2-1 national league in this yrs interleague play w/ all 3 nl team goin off as big dogs.
duke is 4-0 at home over his last 4 and 1-0 his only start as a fav over that period. He has a 2.39 era over these 4 and is ave. 7.5 inn per start and hasnt gone less than 7 ip.
Duke has a 3.86 lifetime v. cleveland, and is holding righties totally in check which should limit peralta who is really the only guy going good right now for cleve (sans sizemore/see more later)
pitt is hitting righties 60pt higher than cleve is hitting lefties over the last 10. and is the hotter hitting team overall.
Pavano is getting hammered by righties which includes wilson, sanchez and mcutchen for pitt, incidentally thier 3 hottest hitters all going over .300 over the last 7 games.
Pavano must also find a way to slow laroche down who is .333 in 3 lifetime ab's and .300 over his last 7, and .382 at home, and coming off a 2/5 hr game.
finally pitts #2 man is cold now, but is hitting 60pts higher off righties and should be able to take 2nd anytime he want off martinez who must catch in nl park.
the cleve penn is a joke and capps hasnt given up a run at home in a while and should be fine if he gets to close the door. (hope not cuz its a close one if so)
the bad:
this cleve team has a nasty habit of winning pavonos starts 7-3 over last 10.
sizemore is back and he is a real indian catalyst and has fared well in limited ab's vs. duke.
valbuena is hot and a lefty that could get to duke?
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why the run line???
heres why:
this ump doesnt call 1 run games 1 in his last 10 behind the dish
pavano doesnt pitch in 1 run games 2/10 and when he does he wins anyway 2-0.
duke doesnt pitch in 1 run games 1/10 and when he did pitt lost anyway, so its moot.
pitt as a team doesnt play many 1 run games and yest was first in 10 games, cleveland does but most of those are attributable to wood who prob wont go today.
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finally in the interest of full disclosure i will also play 2 units on the under in the first 5 inn. which i got at 4.5 even.
this ump last 4 overs, 2 were under in first 5.
heres the logic....if duke blows up at home then i just got moosed bc its a very rare occurance, he always goes 5+ so i know he will be in all 5.
if this game goes over first 5 it should mean a pavano implossion which should get me a pitt rl cover....caution this type of thinking has gotten me stuck bad in the past, but i must cont. to use logic///even in baseball.
gl...
final play Pitt rl +160 3units
pitt under 4.5 first 5 even 2units.
SEC Poon
same to you
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