Posted:
#1
After a 2-6 Wednesday (+$194.91):
ML 48-51 -$600.20
Faves -1½ RL 3-12 -$2224.00
Dogs +1½ RL 4-5 -$1882.49
+120 or more Dogs ML 17-25 +$1170.59
Totals 13-11 -$7.09
1st 5 Innings 12-14 -$2720.41
Props 6-7 -$811.09
2 Dogs Parlay 1-2 +$170.80
$$$ = -$6903.89
Strength of wagers on a scale of 1 to 5 units
1 unit = $100
All wagers: Listed Pitchers
Early dime pick of the day:
Get this in fellas! Don't fall for the home dog role here. Brian Burres have been solid and may be one of the O's best starter right now, but just look at his numbers against the Rays and you'll understand why this line is moving against him. I'm not just talking about his last start against the Rays; take a look at how he got manhandled by the Devil Rays last season as a starter and a swingman.
Against another O's starter, maybe Daniel Cabrera, you could fade Matt Garza. Although Garza have shown signs of improvement, he'll never be a double-digit winner in the Majors. Think of Matt Garza as a less effective version of Chien-Ming Wang, possessing a powerful 2-seam heater that sinks but with random location problems due to inconsistency.
Point is, in most cases, you can't win money with Garza. But this is an awful situation for Brian Burres. Some pitchers just have problems with certain teams, especially when he's not on his A-game. Case and point: Jeff Suppan versus the Cubs last night. Alike Suppan's biorhythm chart, Burres' chart is also in the critical cycle; meaning he may lack full command on the mound.
And if this game is tied after the stretch, whose bullpen would you bank on?
My analysis of the total: Both teams have left a lot of men on bases in the series, Rays left 18 and the O's stranded 16. Alike the actual ERA stats for both starters, Garza's RISP ERA is vastly worse than Burres' RISP stats. I could see this game going over 10 combined runs as Garza is no Sonnanstine, and then apply Burres' ERA of 11.42 versus Tamp Bay, you have a recipe for a high scoring affair.
versus
Tampa Bay Rays ML -105 Risking 1000.00 To Win 952.38
0
i like it when we on the same side kane,,
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