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CFC Gets Its "BAIL-OUT PACKAGE"

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Posted: #1
BAC to the rescue with 2 billion.
 
CFC will be allowed to flourish and get away with everything.
 
Now.....time to puke.
 
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Posted: #2
I dont get that..

So they are investing 2B in preferred stock which is convertible to common at 18 per share..also paying 7.5% interest.

Doesnt seem like a saving bail out purchase to me..

Looks like BAC trying to get a sweetheart deal and a great interest rate as well.

CFC burned through more than that just this week..
 
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Posted: #3
The point is that they won't be allowed to go bankrupt, and that is wrong.
 
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Posted: #4
Well we have seen worse, plus they still COULD go bankrupt..

BAC investing 2B doesnt mean CFC makes it, plus depending on how the deal is structured it might be DEBT vs common..so if CFC goes under, BAC gets a claim on assets before common holders do.


 
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Posted: #5
Well, we shall see.  I think I just got my opportunity, though, to at least make a few bucks shorting it at its open tomorrow.
 
The dumb money will cover their shorts and buy....the smart money will use this opportunity for fading.
 
But, we will see how it reacts at tomorrow's open.
 
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Posted: #6
I like the Sept puts, but they are going to be priced pretty rich....
 
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Posted: #7
WSC-
 
CFC won't be allowed to go bankrupt, but I "WILL" be selling it short tomorrow at some time.....no question about it.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #8
Can't mess with the time decay and rich pricing of options.....easier to just sell it short tomorrow.
 
This is a no-brainer......won't make me rich, but it will damn sure put a few gees in my pocket.
 
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Posted: #9
I will guess it opens 27ish tomorrow and closes lower than its open.
 
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Posted: #10
claycourt,

Let me give a bit of warning..

Fighting a stock because we feel the system helped it along, aka CFC can be a HUGE losing battle.

Even thought it is a pisser and we dont like it, CFC looks like it should survive.

Might be better to go after a name who will benefit but might not make it...like IMB or TMA
 
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Posted: #11
CFC is in no way out of the clear. Today's gains are based solely on the speculation that Buffet might be interested in Countrywide. No lender is out of the woods and we are still months away until we've seen the worst of this so called "bubble bursting". How long can a lender like Countrywide stay afloat when they've done more sub-prime loans then anyone the past 6 years? They've tapped into their own reserves and that capital won't last them more than 12 months. There is no secondary market for their loans so they are stuck with all the sub-prime garbage they originated. I wouldn't want to be a CFC shareholder when 1 out of every 199 homes in Nevada has filed for foreclosure. In Orange County, a very strong economy, 1 in every 650 households foreclosed on. Not only that but delinquent mortgages are at an all-time high.
 
With very strict lending guidelines how are these "sub-prime" borrowers going to get out of their adjustable loans? Are these homeowners going to be able to afford their rising mortgage payment because they don't qualify for a refi? I believe in California alone 60% of homeowners are in ARM's.....
 
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Posted: #12
Somthing to consider fellas..

BAC isnt in the "take a big fat chance of losing 2B" game..

I am sure they looked over the books pretty closely and felt the risk was worth the reward.

I dont think CFC dies..nor do I think IMB dies (maybe they sell off some of their mortgage..but after the news today I dont think that happens either) but other smaller names still might including LEND.

Look at how IMB and TMA are moving in after hours..pretty big stuff....
 
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Posted: #13
Right, WSC.
 
I definitely think CFC survives.
 
I also think there are more sellers than buyers after the open tomorrow, and on through the rest of the week.
 
But, all this is jibber jabber, cause the only thing that counts in this hideous game is this:
 
DID YOU OR DIDN'T YOU MAKE MONEY?
 
I'll post my basis tomorrow and let the results speak for themselves.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #14
You have a concerted effort by the major banks AND the Fed to put out, or at least make people believe they have successfully put out or at the very least seriously contained the subprime lender fiasco. Not letting Countrywide blow up would seem to be the priority for all of the interests.
 Given that, I would personally be reluctant to fight such a collection of pooled money and power.But that is just me.I do not think Countrywide will be allowed to fail, period.But GL Court and you very well may be right that there is money to be made in the very short term regarding them.
 
 
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Posted: #15
I look forward to hearing your entry point..you might even consider pre-market as they might really run it up early, dump it and run it again.

What I find interesting is that even if things work out, CFC is going to drop a TON on the top and the added debt will hurt the bottom. It isnt like the stock is 2 bucks or somthing, it is 50% off highs it might never see again..much like a stock like SUNW who hit over 100 during the tech run and now has bottomed out and will probably never see over 20 again.

So a short might take time but once they report a quarter with significantly lower revenues and profits, the cap will be put on and 30 could be a top longer term..


 
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Posted: #16
After Hours: 26.25 4.43 (20.30%) as of 7:59PM ET on 08/22/07
 

  I too will be looking, good luck with the trade!!
 
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Posted: #17
Thanks, guys.
 
Will just have to assess the sentiment at the open and see if it is has any legs or not.
 
First guess is that all the giddiness at today's open should be faded.
 
An open for CFC around 30ish would be "manna from heaven," but I don't think I'l' be that lucky.  I say 27ish with possibly a HUGE initial short squeeze immediately at the open, lasting about 30-45 minutes, running CFC up very hard and fast to scare the present shorts into covering.......could run close to 30, I hope.
 
I don't know if the present shorts are weak or strong, or where their basis lies.  Obviously, weak shorts who shorted CFC in low 20s will want to bail out on any drops, especially if they have thousands of shares short.
 
The intense short squeeze that will be encouraged today is what could keep CFC afloat for a while.
 
It's sad, but Wall Street ALWAYS gets bailed out.  Undeserved.  CFC is a horse-shit outfit.  Gamblers who lost.  Deserve to go bankrupt.
 
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Posted: #18
CEO from CFC will be on everyone's favorite network to fade.....CNBC.
 
CNBC is to fading the stock market what ESPN is to fading the NFL.....hahahahahahahaha.
 
Well, I won't be shorting CFC until after this bozo blasts out his brand of bullshit at 1100 EDT with the NYSE former mascot.....Maria Bartiroma.
 
 
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Posted: #19
Yup now if you want to see and hear a load of BS, tune in at 11 am EST LOL
 
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Posted: #20
CFC is 25ish in pre-market.
 
Players will try to rally it at the open and squeeze the shorts out......setting it up for a fade later on.
 
The weak shorts will bail out, that's for sure.
 
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Posted: #21
CFC opened around 24......down to 23 for now.
 
I think the big money players are going to rally this today and put the fear of God in the shorts.
 
Looks like I am not going to open a short position on this one today.....I'd feel very strong shorting it in the 27ish range.  22-23 is way, way, way too risky to take on this potential machine.
 
Nonetheless, for entertainment only, will tune in to CNBC and listen to this lying scumbag dipshit give his hypocrisy-laced blabber with Maria the mascot, who will kiss his ass and refuse to put this scoundrel's hands to the flame.
 
If I interviewed this guy I would fucking crucify him.
 
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Posted: #22
Stock acting like crap..as expected.

Might even go negative. If you watch the trade there are tons of people still shorting on up ticks..
 
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Posted: #23
Crazy to short it here.....at least to me.....unless you got inside info on something.
 
With that much short interest out there, I am shocked that the big money players haven't forced it to rally up today.....or are they waiting to rally it later cause they know someone is going to report something negative soon?????
 
Liar's poker.
 
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Posted: #24
BTW, Maria Bartiroma did exactly as I thought she would......she let that bozo from CFC off the hook by not absolutely crucifying his ass on writing so many sub-primes when he knew of the repercussions.
 
I'd have grilled the living hell out of him on that point alone, and basically forced him to confess, or else forced him to act like a sour-puss and storm out of the interview.
 
Complete humiliation and embrassment is what was called for today....and Maria B didn't deliver.
 
Maria Bartiroma as a "legitimate" journalist.......
 
 
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Posted: #25
CCL - from everything i read, everyone is waiting for "another" shoe to drop
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