Leaning #11 Incredibolt
I love a horse that’s won at Churchill in multiple previous races. his running style especially in the VA derby makes me lean harder. More than likely will get him at somewhere around 25-1 maybe… Not my final pick yet. Is he good enough
… maybe
Thoughts?? Comments??
What’s to like?
Has won twice at Churchill so he likes the track.
While winning the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs, he had the fastest closing time (final 16th) of any horse going to the Derby.
Second thoughts
Didn’t beat much besides Confessional in the Virginia Derby and Colonial Downs is known for being a fast track.
He will be on my tickets mostly 3rd and 4th,
but wouldn’t fault you playing him higher.
(No matter the competition in the Virginia, that closing time was impressive.)
My strategy is to limit the field a bit... I use the same qualifier every year:
Eliminate horses not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races (Arkansas, Blue Grass, Wood, Santa Anita, and Florida).
22 of the last 26 Derby winners prepped in those races (23 if not Medina Spirit dq). Of the 22 winners,18 finished top two in those preps (19 if not Medina Spirit dq).
This year that lowers the field to 8 now that Silent Tactic is scratched. And you can whittle it down to 6 if ya toss the two glue sticks coming out of the Wood Memorial (Albus and Right to Party).
I ultimately settled on Commandment.
Established in 1995,
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