Kentucky Derby 152 Analysis & Picks

Hello again everybody. It’s that time of the year when I crawl out of my hole to post thoughts on the Run for the Roses. So glad to see some of the “vets” still on the Forum, Midnight, Tygre Mike, Vetdrm among them.

Another annual challenge for Capers and Cappets with a few scratches, questions about the fave in the one hole and some great runs by winners in “lesser” preps.

Let’s go….

1. Renegade…. The current fave at 4-1 has some backers a bit nnnnervous, rightfully so. Considering that no horse out of post one has won the Derby since 1986, that was the ill-fated Ferdinand, is cause for concern. I still have nightmares about Lookin’ At Lucky getting pin-balled out of one in the 2010 Derby. He was good enough to recover to finish sixth, but the damage was done. There is hope for Renegade. The positives? Pletcher, despite hilarious comments made when he learned the horse’s post number, has made some very positive comments. Then, there is jockey Irad O, a maestro at almost willing a horse to win. Next, the boy is out of the prolific Into Mischief, who has sired three Derby winners (Authentic, Mandaloun & Sovereignty) putting him in a tie with four other Derby winning sires. In addition, IM is grandsire to Mystic Dan, 2024 winner. Then there are the horses in posts 2 and 3, which, in form, Renegade should be able to overcome early to get into position. Lastly, it seems that many of the Derby “trends” are falling, i.e. Big Brown, the first horse to win out of post 20 since 1929; unraced horses as two-year olds not winning since 1882 (Justify & Mage beat that trend).  This could be the year the one-hole bucks the trend. Since they went to the single 20-gate rack 5 years ago, there seems to be little change for the fortunes of the one post, but backers should play him to win and include as a big part of exotics.

2. Albus…..Winner of the Wood, a race which hasn’t produced a Derby winner since 2000. Don’t let that scare you if you have a hankering for the horse. At 30-1, consider that he came from 11 L back to win the Wood. That closing kick is something to consider for exotics and who knows? Jock Manny Franco is a plus. The last winner out of # 2 was Affirmed in 1978. Another “Buck the Trend” and on the improve?                                                                              

3. Intrepido…. Grandson of Into Mischief, so he’s got that goin’. Milkshake Mullins trains with Berrios up. At 50-1, the colt was creamed by Ted Noffey in the BC Juve. Ted probably would be the fave on Saturday if he didn’t get hurt. Another 10 L loss to So Happy in the SA Derby. Note exceptional work on April 26 at CD and at SA on April 19. Unless the ghost of Secretariat blesses Intrepido in the gate, he’ll need a Giacomo-type performance to win.

4. Litmus Test…..50-1 ML, but a ray of hope is that his sire, Nyquist (winner of 2012 Ky Derby) has the 5^th best average winning distance of all sires in the race. This probably means little, but for those considering, at least it’s something, sort of like when the Little Leaguer strikes out every time at bat and is praised for “nice swing!” Not a lot to like for me as he’s been beaten by Ted Noffey, by just 1-3/4 L (95 Beyer), and by 12-1/2 L to Renegade in the Ark Derby. However, Baffert trains with Marty Garcia holding the strap, so take a look-see for clues.

 5. Right To Party….SCRATCHED

6. Commandment……HubbaBubba, the Cox-trainee has it going, including Beyers of 100 and 101, four straight wins, Cox-Saez combo at 24% wins in 2025-26, AND a son of Into Mischief. After watching his nose-win in the Florida Derby, I was all over the animal. He was my Derby horse…..until I watched the race a few more times and saw the effort of Chief Wallabee. More on the Chief later. Out of hole 6, the last winner out of the post was Sea Hero in 1993. With this guy, if he runs his race—a bit off the pace, then pounce, kick and finish—post makes no never-mind. I like the easy work coming into this, which tells me that Brad knows he’s ready to go.

 7. Danion Bourbon…..Easy to dismiss with just 3 races, all in Japan, but this rising star, out of Maxfield (Street Sense) and a Tapit mare, is one to watch. He’s won all three of his races as he enters deep waters. So, if he’s so green, then why is DB installed at 20-1 ML rather than 50-1 or even 30-1? Nishimura is a 26-year-old jock making his North American debut, and he’s ridden this fellow to two straight wins. Trainer Ikezoe is 13% in wins, which many conditioners would love. The way Japanese horses have performed in the U.S. the past three years, it would be no surprise to see the colt take a solid piece. Looking for clues. The 7-hole has produced 8 winners, including Mandaloun.

 8. So Happy…..I don’t care how old Mike Smith is, when he gets a live one, he rolls with it. The 100 Beyer in Happy’s SA Derby win was no accident. A brilliant run. A brilliant ride. Winner of 3 of 4 lifetime races, I think the Runhappy colt can have a big day and will be a must-include for me. Working with blinks, but not sure he will put them on for the race. Runhappy had great success, including receiving an Eclipse Award in 2015. While he’s had just one starter in the Derby (Smile Happy, 8 in 2022), the sire has had great success with his kids. Smitty and trainer Glatt combine for 26% wins in 2025-26.

9. The Puma…..Ohhhhh, what to make of this boy after a stellar second place finish with a 100 Beyer in the FLA Derby. Prior to that race, Puma won the Tampa Derby besting Further Ado; finished 3 to Renegade in the Sam Davis and came second to Chief Wallabee in his debut at GP. Having not raced as a two-year old (Yes, Apollo), he’s getting better, but still manages to get into a bit of trouble slowly out of the gate. Also troubling to me, he hasn’t had a workout since April 18. Wonder why? His daddy, Essential Quality, was two-year old and three-year old champion male Eclipse award winner. Puma is EQ’s first Derby starter. Jockey Castellano and trainer Delgado teamed up to bring Mage home a winner in the 2023 KY Derby, so no strangers to the Winner’s Circle on the first Saturday in May. If you like Commandment and Chief Wallabee, you should like The Puma. At 10-1 ML, it would be something to see these two Venezuelans win their second Derby in the same year the country’s baseball team won the World Baseball Classic!

 11. Incredibolt…..Not sure what all the buzz is about this guy, but he is 5/3-0-0 lifetime. He was pretty good in the Virginia Derby winning by 4 L, but clunked out a 58 Beyer in the Holy Bull, the race prior, losing by 25+ L. He’s 2 for 2 at CD, and that counts for something. However, a career high Beyer of 88 against this bunch does little to get my toes to tappin’ at the window. I don’t see Incredibolt coming close to 100 Beyer, which is likely needed to win in this field.

 12. Chief Wallabee……Ohhhhh, how much I want to make this guy my Derby horse. While my lean was Commandment, what CW did in the Florida Derby is exceptional. Seemingly stuck near the rail for much of the race, he went 2 wide, then 4 wide before being righted and finishing a half L out. Much made of his putting on the blinks. I think it is a good move, but of the last 11 horses wearing blinkers in the Derby, the best finish among them is fourth. I am fond of backing horses who “haven’t run their race yet.”  Chief W hasn’t run his race yet, and the fourth time might be that I am spooked because he didn’t race as a two-year old but the trend factors I mentioned might overshadow this. I like his sire, Constitution, and jock Alvarado and trainer Mott are 26% combined at Churchill. He’s battled the best, Commandment and The Puma, going toe-to-toe with those dudes. A must for all tickets and a close look at winning it all. One other item that might be a factor…. CW’s average stride in his two grades stakes is a whopping 24.26 feet, which bodes well as he stretches to 1-1/4 miles. Note: Commandment (23.01 ft) and The Puma (22.76 ft). BLINKERS

 13. Silent Tactic-SCRATCHED

 14. Potente…...Another Into Mischief and a good one after just three career starts. In my opinion, he didn’t particularly “lose” the SA Derby. So Happy dug in and won it. Baffert will have him ready for this with the hope that the pace doesn’t hurt him in the final furlong. Hernandez grabs the strap and he’s been real good. Last work at CD was boffo and I expect him to improve on his 95 Beyer last out. Note: He beat So Happy in the San Felipe. Look for Potente to be among the final 6 or 7 in the stretch on what might be a could-be day for him.

 15. Emerging Market…… An “X” factor of sorts, he’s a Candy Ride son with Prat and Brown in the dugout. Note that Candy Ride is the pappy of Gun Runner. Knock is the colt has just two lifetime races hitting Beyers of 97 and 90 with plenty of room for improvement. The 90 was his figure coming out of his win in the Louisiana Derby. Keep in mind that just two horses, Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996, have won both the Loozie Derby and Kentucky Derby. Furthermore, no horse that has just two races lifetime has won the Derby in 143 years. Ouch! He’s a hard charger, so I will not dismiss for some and, because he has the potential to improve, I will include him in exotics.

 16. Pavlovian…..The second placer in the Louisiana Derby soldiers on to his 11 career race. He’s 10/2-4-1…pretty good…. with a career high Beyer of 93 coming in his first race, and 90 in the LA Derby. With two G-2 races, he’s been in with some good ones, but not those as good as in Saturday’s race. Installed at 30-1, it’s going to take a lot of racing luck to break through for a top 4 finish. Maldonado rides for Doug O’Neill. I can’t play the Pavel offspring but wishing luck to those who will do so.

17. Six Speed…...Glad to see Brian Hernandez get a mount, but, Jeez-0-Pete, he’s’ on the one that finished second to Wonder Dean at UAE. Nice career record of 5/3-1-1 with all races in Maydan, and a Timeform high of 103. Nice breeding in that Giant’s Causeway and Medaglia d’ Oro are his granddads and I like that he won the UAE 2000 Guineas with Wiliam Buick aboard carrying 125 pounds. He is improving and likely to get out early, which could mess with those on either side of him. My beef about the local horses from UAE is that many of them would be lucky to win an Allowance at Pimlico, so why are they in the Kentucky Derby? ML is 50-1 with, I will guess, a float to 80-1. Of course, if he wins, I will eat my computer for saying this.

 18. Further Ado……Lots of people jumping up and down after his big performance in the Blue Grass hitting a 106, the highest Beyer achieved of any horse in the race. Consider the field, which was much weaker than the Derby field. And he’s a horse for the course…..at Keeneland, not Churchill. An 11 L win and a 20 L wins are nuthn’ to sneeze on, but did Ado achieve these marks because he was up against inferior fields and prefers the Keeneland surface, which is more peculiar than the CD track? However, Gun Runner’s boy does have a win at Churchill in KY JC, a grade 2 race, when the colt was two years old. He missed besting Puma in the Tampa Derby ¾ L. No doubt he will compete, but I wonder if he is as good as the Top four. Cox rides Johnny V, a nice connection. Of course, I will include, but me-thinks he’s going to need another massive run to win. Nice steady work for this. A top 4 finish…. without Further Ado (see what I did there?)

 19. Golden Tempo……He’s out of Curlin and has put together a nice resume (4/2-0-2) and he has J. Ortiz in the leather for Cherie DeVaux. The combo is 27% wins at CD in 2025-26. GT has raced only at Fairgrounds and I don’t think that’s good enough to beat these. Somewhat improving with a career Beyer high of 88 last out in the LA Derby. I’ll put him on my “we’ll see” list in the post parade.

 20. Fulleffort….SCRATCHED

• Great White…..”Do as I say. Not as I do,“ and that is to cap every horse that draws in after a scratch. I made the fatal mistake of not even looking at Rick Strike’s form after he drew in, but when the race was over and I saw that a case could have been built for him. So, check out the draw-ins, like Great White. Nothing remarkable in 4 races, but he does have two wins. Beyer high is 84, then regressed to 77 in the Blue Grass finishing 22+ L out. He is likely to get out early and likely to fizzle as he did in Lexington. At 50-1 and drifting northward.
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My Picks:

OK….I might be looking for Mr. Goodbar, but I will play #12 Chef Wallabee…..$25-win, $50 place. Please Apollo. Go away. He’s sitting on a big one and I think today is the day.

#6 Commandment….$15-win, $30 place. My original first choice. Hoping he doesn’t regress or get into a speedball in the final 2 F with Puma, CW, Happy and Ado.

$16 exacta box: 6 & 12       

$12 exacta: 12/1,8,9,18

$6 exacta: 6/1,8,9,18          

$4 exacta: 1,8,9,18/6,12

$3 tri: 6,12/1,6,8,9,12,18/1,6,8,9,12,14,15,18

$1 tri: 1,6,9,12/1,6,8,9,12/1,6,8,9,12,18

I’m tempted to do an all Into Mischief tri box!

@mikeyp1

 Good Luck Buddy. Thank u. 

@Ky2436

Good luck to you, sir!

Nice writeups..looks like this race has unlimited possibilities Good Luck…I do like the 6 and 12 on top BUT those closers will be coming home late 

#12 to be in the top 3

This from drf.com:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The Puma, the fifth choice at 8-1 in the early wagering for Saturday’s 152nd Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, was scratched about 12 hours before the race was scheduled to be run due to a swollen pastern believed to be caused by a skin infection in his left front leg.

Corona de Oro was next in, but got scratched Friday morning. Looks like they will go with 19 horses.

@Crusher13

 YOU ARE CORECT, SIR.  A furious fight to the finish is what I see, as well. Puma is out, so that eliminates one of the late-comers.

One additional factoid re: Further Ado. The last horse to win the Blue Grass and Derby was Riva Ridge in 1991.

With The Puma out, my revised picks:

#12 Chef Wallabee…..$25-win, $50 place. .

#6 Commandment….$15-win, $30 place.

I'm moving Potente up in exotics.

$16 exacta box: 6 & 12       

$12 exacta: 12/1,8, 14, 18

$6 exacta: 6/1,8, 14,18          

$4 exacta: 1,8,14,18/6,12

$3 tri: 6,12/1,6,8,12,14,18/1,6,8,12,14,15,18

$1 tri: 1,6,12/1,6,8,12, 14,18/1,6,8,12,14,18

Good stuff pal . Have to meet at Rivers sometime soon. 

@vetdrm

 Yes....for the Bears--Packers game 

This is awesome. Appreciate all the work you put in. I will definitely be referring to this later.

@smalltime21

 Thanks.......Sorry that the results weren't as favorable.

@mikeyp1

 When you're dealing with 20 separate entities, with limited experience and history, it's really difficult to handicap. Thanks for your input, like Midnight you're a must read when it comes to the horses.

@mrusso

 I appreciate it, sir. Thank you. You are absolutely correct. Picking the winner out of a 20 horse field is sort like the needle in hte haystack.