Week 9

4-5 last week, 0-2 on the 2 unit plays.
31-33 total, down about 7' units on the year including juice, tax and tax.

UAB
@ Southern Miss -10     2 Units

Southern Miss is good at home, huge edge in turnovers, and in a legit revenge spot because they dominated the series until they lost last years game. I use "revenge" only to point out the loss last year should keep them focused.

Louisville
@ Pitt -10     1 unit

Pitt clearly the top dog in the Big East. LV whupped a team with a rookie QB last week...Pitt had over 500 yards vs an obviously distracted Rutgers team....

Michigan State    +6    2 UNITS
@ Iowa 

I see Mich St winning outright by 4 or 5...

Kentucky
@ Mississippi St -7    2 UNITS

Another team that was asleep last week...UAB, homecoming distractions, just beat FLA...now they're focused again and should win. Playing on MST's defense. Also don't think UK can stop MST from running the ball down their throats. MST doesn't have the best QB's in the SEC (understatement alert!) so they need as much pressure taken off them as possible.

Stanford  -7   1 UNIT
@ Washington

Love the play as much as as the 2 unit bets, but the plan is to tread lightly on any road fave. Just becoming my style...

Andrew Luck and other players were saying the right thing after they were finished sleep walking thru the Wash St game. They were "disappointed in their performance" and the usual.... The bet depends on them still being pissed off and focused next Saturday.

Florida
VS
Georgia -2    2 UNITS

GA doesn't get a chance to beat down Florida often. FLA will make them pay next year...but GA fans should have fun this year!

The Cuse shut W.V down

I like So Miss, Miss St and Pitt the most out of your moves Syr!!!

BOL

HA! They sure did, Boom.

I have got to get a handle on the damn home team. I think I might've said earlier in the year they were a spread team or something...If I did...that was just moronic. Anyway, I thought WV would win by 3 TD's but didn't trust WV's Coach to cover the -14.

During the game, the announcer said Coach Stewart was worried about SYR turning it into a power run game. Nassib mentioned that WV was in nickle and dime personnel all game long...the only thing Syr could do was run the ball down their throat. Coach Stewart brought the "power run game problem" down on himself.

BAH! I suck at understanding this team...listening to the local media screws me up.

Hey, Swizzol, thanks.

Michigan State    +6    2 UNITS

Will be on Kentucky and maybe Dub as well..

SatnightFever; Well...we can't agree on all of them, I guess.


Adding:

Idaho
@ Hawai'i  -13'   1 UNIT


Idaho makes mistakes on the road and is having a roller coaster year. ID went into the last game vs NMST trying to establish the run and only ran for a little over 80 yards.

Idaho just lost their defensive captain to a broken leg; MLB JoJo Dickson.

hey buddy at least we've got So Miss, UGA and Hawaii on the same page, keep grinding we'll bust out one of these weeks

BOL LJ

CUSE in da house last weekend !!!!

BOL this week

nice

thanks

UGA barking all week long

Nostra; Yep...we're only as good as next weeks' picks. Keep firing as long as there's money in the accounts...

shakey;

GBP;

D-TOWN!!!

jmb9; Lets hope so...line shot up to -3 quick. This is one I'm glad to get on early. Good luck this week.

Orangemen44; You know it 44! Now they play a Cincy defense with 8 soph's starting on defense...one of the youngest D's in football. Also, it looks like the Cinci QB is injured.  Game still not on the board...you know it's anyone's game when the linesmaker doesn't know what the hell to do with a game.


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Adding:

Purdue +17     1 unit
@ Illinois

So far during Coach Hope's tenure, Purdue is sticking to a pattern that most young teams follow: play a shitty game and then play above your head next week. They did that a couple times last year and hopefully do it this week.

Last weeks' ILL score over Indy is a little misleading...2 blocked punts and 2 INT's ret'd for a TD...Ha...probably because I had 2 bets on Indy...eh well. ILL gives me one bet back this week.

As far as on the field stuff...Scheelhause won't exploit the secondary. A Good day passing for him is when he tops 150 yards. Purdue's front 7 has good, speedy playmakers. They had a great day vs Minny...yeah...who doesn't? But they can have a little more success vs ILL than vs a pissed off Ohio St.

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JUST THE LEANS:

Maryland  WF defense is historically bad. Couldn't have fixed it in one bye week. Maryland lost another OL this week. Probably won't matter and they'll leave this game over rated.
UTEP     Road junk underdog. I've been hitting road junk lately.
Tulane    Could be flat out better than SMU. Tulane is finding playmakers on offense. SMU can't score. A win gets Tulane to 4-4...could they be 6-6 by the end of the year?
Missouri   I didn't know what to make of the game so i put it at a PK. It's up to +8 now in some spots...Big 12 teams have killed me this year. Might just cheer on Mizzou backers if there's anybody out there...
Duke    Road junk underdog
Ore St  Not much capping here...I'd broadstroke the play by saying It's a Cal fade.
Air Force    Utah looks great but they have a spot every year where they look unbeatable then play a close, tough game vs top MWC team. It's tough to only grab +7 though...
Michigan   They are far better than they've been. Penn St is far worse then they've been. How the hell does UM win at Penn St at night on ABC?
Oregon    Kiffin runs the same defense as Pete did. I know the book on Kiffin SR is he could teach it to the kids better than Pete did...but what...Pete Carroll is a terrible coach now? The bye week is keeping me off this game. I have to admit that 2 weeks to prep is an advantage vs Ore offense. Still lean ORE.

ADDING:

ECU @ UCF OVER 53'

ECU has scored on everyone except NC this year; their defense has only stopped Marshall. I see UCF winning by 35-28...maybe 38-31...something in that area...

GL syracuse lj...

pags 11. Good luck, pags.

grapes

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Adding 2 more and that may be it...


Cal
@ Oregon State -3 +100


UTEP +3
@ Marshall

This is the last chance for Mike Price's team to get that 6th win and bowl eligibility. Next week is November and we all know to fade UTEP in November.

Utah -7     2 UNITS

@ Air force

The run defense for AF hasn't been this bad in awhile. AF has only given up 200 yards rushing in one game in 2008 & 2009 combined. (To Navy in 2008.) This year, they've already given up over 200 yards rushing 5 times. (Including over 300 last week to TCU.) AF is young. They've played 19 true frosh this year which is the most among FBS schools.

The Utah rush defense is crushing teams and AF doesn't have a passing game to fall back on...QB Tim Jefferson will have more punts than completions. (A new 4th down wrinkle.) Utah understands how different the AF scheme is; they spent a part of their spring practice, fall practice, and the bye week earlier this year working on AF's scheme. Utah will be focused this week because the coaching staff has kept them aware of AF since the spring.

One worry is Utah has a worse turnover margin. Utah is usually more talented than AF; it's the turnovers that keep AF in the game. But turnovers are caused by hard hits and experienced defenders stripping the ball. This is not going to be the typical Utah @ AF game with tough defense on both sides. Only Utah is bringing the defense this year.

Utes are also bringing a balanced offense and I expect a butcher.

always enjoy your column.  keep plugging, buddy.

K4ngur13;

Skipster; Thanks, Skip. I try to keep it entertaining and sprinkle in a fact or two. Definitely will keep plugging away. This week is a little more aggressive than usual. The hole could be completely gone or too deep to dig out of on Sunday. Either way, more than enough bankroll to hang in thru to the first week of December.

Hope your year is less of a roller coaster ride.

TonyaHarding;

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Adding:

Washington State +21 -105    1/2 a unit
& Washington State Team Total OVER 18  1/2 a unit
@ Arizona State

Wasn't sure how to attack this game. Could WST lose 17-30 or would they score around 24 and let the Air Raid run up 50- 55 points? I was too stubborn to just pass on the game...

Arizona St will keep WST within +21 because of turnovers. WST doesn't have many advantages in a game but they've been taking advantage of their opponents' mistakes.

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The 2 unit plays:
Southern Miss -10
Michigan State +6
Mississippi State -7
Georgia -2
Utah -7 (If I bet more than 2 units on a game, I would add $$$ to this bet.)

The 1 unit games:
Pitt -10
Hawai'i -13'
Stanford -7
Purdue +17
Oregon State -3 +100
UTEP +3
ECU @ UCF OVER 53
Washington St +21 -105/ Team total OVER 18

GL today ! like the Georgia pick