Week 8 L2Thirst

Are many of you finding this year hard to find a team or group of teams to ride with consistent play?

This has to be one of the hardest seasons to read momentum in teams for me in a long while. And trying to figure out Totals on that basis, has become a crapshoot at times. I can do better but honestly, this is the first year for me in a long while were I shine very brightly one week and then hit the dumper hard the week after and its nothing to do with how much time I put into matchups or research on past lines.....its just that situations are becoming wildly inconsistent this year. 

LAST WEEK:

1-3 Standard Plays  (considerable time and research put in)

0-3 on Double Ups (feel/instinct bets)

Exotic Bets > start up $270 > give back $600+

Season record on Standard Plays = 24 - 21 (+2.5)

Down on exotics/Double Ups

MUST DO BETTER!

Crazy season:

-preseason had TEXAS #1

-after week 1/2, many had PENN ST #1 

What I put together late Saturday night: Playoff Picture 

------------------------------------------------------------

BEST TEAMS /PLAYOFF SETUP - as I see it looking ahead

Old King Reigns #1 = BUCKEYES   (BIG 10) 

-undisputed until they face Michigan and maybe Indiana in Big 10 Final

- only Michigan (5th or 6th best B10 team) has lost to a good team out of the Big 10 (vs Oklahoma)

#2. Miami    (ACC)

-no team in the top 4 of this conference has lost outside of their conference

#3 Texas AM   (SEC)

-has a lot of very good teams but no team has stepped up to impress out of conference or to dominate within the conference 

-one of their Top 5 teams lost to a Top 5th or lower ACC teams

#4 Texas Tech  (BIG 12)

-only one team (Cincy) has lost to an out of conference team (5th or 6th best Big 10)

---------------In the Playoff now but this will change obviously------- 

5. Indiana

6. Ole Miss 

7. Alabama

8. Oregon

9. USC

10. BYU

11. Georgia Tech

12. Memphis or USF  (best Group of 5?)

------------------- THE REST are next in line best teams/chance for playoffs

13. Georgia 

14. LSU

15. Missouri

16. Tennessee

---------------------Have a chance

17. Utah

18. Notre Dame 

19. Vanderbilt

20. Oklahoma

------------------------------21st  to 30+

 Good One Loss Teams = Washington, Nebraska, Virginia,  Cincy, USF, Tulane,  Louisville, Houston, UNT

 Good Two Loss Teams = Michigan, Texas, Illinois, Iowa, Arizona St, Iowa St, Pitt, Arizona 

Worst Undefeated team  = UNLV or Navy

How good are they? (1 loss teams) = James Madison, San Diego St.

I just looked into some games this morning again....and did a little comparison:

OLE MISS @ Georgia -7

-Kiffin about to find out what he has as far as moxy and toughness in a stretch that is akin of what Auburn just went through

-difference is, he has a strong offense although BOTH Chambliss and Simmons can be inconsistent ....I think the game last week was done in a way to not show anything to Georgia

-Ole Miss vs Georgia could be their season if they are going to be in the Playoff in my opinion....so I like OLE MISS here based on their secondary and ability to move the ball

PLAY #1 - get the golden number overnight and I am taking it > OLE MISS +7 x 1U

-the Georgia defense does not scare any SEC team enough that a balanced team with a good RB like Lacy could not find enough ground to move the chains when needed or get the 2-3 yds to shorten the the first down enough to give Chambliss/Simmons options to move the ball

PLAY #2 - LSU/VANDY Under 49.5 x 2U

-this is my play of the week

-LSU is consistent in their approach

-Vandy has good balance on their offense and one of their best defenses in the past couple of years

24-21 game at most and likely 21-17 score I predict for which side, I am not sure....LSU needs Durham to be healthy to allow Nuss to some time to throw on a play action 

-this should be a gritty game

I want to take Penn St ML for PLAY #3 but gonna do some more digging on the new coach and his approach with Allar and RBs...

What else I am scoping:

1. Kentucky +11.5 at home vs Texas > they always play top 5 SEC teams tough at home

2. Missouri +2 > very composed team on both sides of the ball vs a beat up team after 3 tough matches in a row

3. Wash St /Virginia Total (56.5) > we saw Cougars move the ball on an SEC team and Virginia can move the ball on any team for points so high 50's/60+ pts is likely

4. Arizona @ Houston > tough loss for Zona and Houston on the rise who can move the ball well and play defense 

5. Baylor/TCU > fireworks score?

6. UTSA/UNT > fireworks score and revenge game > pressure off for UNT and they can just keep scoring TD's at their own pace unlike the one that USF threw at their defense....UTSA and them have a history of high scoring games

7. UCONN/BC > wrong team may be favored here?

8. GTECH/DUKE > total too low? also why is GTECH not at least EVEN here?

9. Purdue/NW > NW has an offense this year ....and they play ultra tough on homefield and fans should be wild for them as a 4-2 team with good bowl aspirations with that PSU defeat!!

10. Ohio St -27.5/41.5 total..... not sure if Wisky will even score a TD on this Buckeye defense .... have to injury report 

11. TexAM @ Arkansas > tricky game for AM at that spread as Arky can put up points!

12. UNLV/BOISE > too low of a total? UNLV defense is butter !! They know how to drive the ball for sure

13. TTech @ Arizona St > I expect Zona St to put up a fight and TTech to falter at some point....is this the game?

14. Mississippi St +10 > they can score on any team they have shown/too many points?

15. UCLA -3 > team that his having fun and Nico pressing his competitive buttons now/he is thinking for his Draft marketability now/team is riding it

16. Penn St +3.5 now? This team has way too much offense in my opinion that is shackled but its the defense that has to button down when needed and yes Iowa is balanced but so are the Nittany Lions ....just needed to be set free from Franklin??

17. Tenn/Alabam +8 > where is the defense with Vols? This one should end up a one score game with their offense so one has to like this number vs a Bama defense that is very good but like Georgia, you can compete against it

Jesus, lots of 'game chedda' above to grab!!! 

I’m waiting out Penn St a week.  This looks like an opportunity and a rally for the new coach and Iowa is super high right now. I just hesitate to flock to Penn St being in a dog situation. They probably cover though. 

I saw you had a bad week.  I can get a feel on what you are missing but you keep bouncing back nicely. I’m not congruent with SP+.  I’m giving some of this new info time to sort out.  

Bounce back week 

Best wishes 

great read….best of luck and keep grinding 

Yea, definitely a great read..keep grinding brother

Good thoughts...

Thanks guys 

Its an interesting year to say the least. Vegas is honed in pretty well from week to week variances in play consistency. I have fallen behind on my data /stats but I plan on completing it to help me later and by the end of the season come bowl play....just for some situations because as we know, bowl motivation is so random sometimes. You could get the matchup right but not the motivation 

Family weekend and work slowing me down but the rubber this the road this week as teams for PLAYOFF really jockey now to get in and others for bowls

Just looking at line moves since the morning:

-wow ...Missouri flipped!

One more thing I notice and forgot to mention:

- teams of a bye layoff are sleepy I find ...offense not firing! 

- I notice Miss St coming down ... be careful when it comes down quite a bit  +10.5 was a good number but the lower it goes ...I don't know

Why is this USC line so high? Injury? ....yes they seem sleepy when they come east and ND is on a rip to snatch a Playoff spot but USC is now at the front PLayoff Poll position in my opinion so the motivation/focus is going to be very high and its a later night game ...so no sleepiness from real early start

UTAH-BYU ....this one should be a classic that BYU will now get a lift from their crowd after some digging deep in the 4th Q last week.... I think this is a solid spot for them unless I see Utah can stop the run very effectively ...have to dig a little

well said, gonna be a great week

Sac 

UGA 

This Nebraska - Minny line is bothering me ..... Lindsey had a terrible game vs Purdue and they could not get the run game going at all. They also were missing two starters in the secondary and they might be both back this week....

Nebraska with Raiola could pick them apart and Lindsey has to face #1 secondary in the stats in college....

I feel like Minny's defense will rise to the occasion at home as that is their only shot in this game to keep things tight. 

Nebraska TEASER?

UNDER on game total? 27 - 17 game? 31-14 game? Total is 46.5