Week 5 observations and Week 6 ponderings

@TRAIN69

 I'm not much of an authority on totals, Train, but Barnett has lit it up the last two games.  I think North Carolina might still be at the burn center.  Plus there were two TDs off blocked punts and a pick six in that game. As for ULM, I doubt the Dukes shut em out.  I dunno, maybe a 41-17 kinda game?  BOL on whatever you decide.

Time to start fine-tuning my playlist at the current lines:

Michigan St. at Oregon (-23') - initial lean was to the Ducks, mainly because the Spartans have been a turnover machine (13 so far).  But HC Jonathan Smith is 16-5 ATS as a road dog in his career (2-0 this year),  and Oregon has Ohio St on deck. Pass.

Missouri (+2') at Texas A&M - I really like Mizzou here, off a bye.  Just waiting to see if I can get +3.

Army (-12) at Tulsa - I don't like playing road favs on the second leg of a two game road trip, but Army does have a two day rest advantage, having played last Thursday.  They're still on my radar at this number.

Navy (-10) at Air Force - same situation as Army except for the rest advantage.  Look, I know the Flyboys are terrible this year, but when's the last time Troy Calhoun has lost at home to these guys? And they're getting 10?  Passing on this one.

UCLA at Penn St. (-28) - slight lean to the Nittany Lions, but the Bruins have already covered twice as a large dog this year.  Pass.

More coming.

Saturday afternoon games:

Temple at Connecticut (-17) - UConn SEEMS like a no-brainer here.  Three blowout wins at home, and the Owls have committed 12 turnovers with only one takeaway this season, and have two blowout losses on the road already.  The Huskies are still on my possible play list for now.

Auburn (+23) at Georgia - lean to the War Eagle, but I'm asking myself, "Self, do you really wanna back a team whose QBs have combined for NINE INTERCEPTIONS so far this year?" It's Homecoming in Athens, which is usually a fade against the home fav, but how will Georgia respond to just their third loss (all to Alabama) in the last three plus seasons?  Having said all that it's Auburn or nobody at this number.

Virginia Tech at Stanford (+8') - Hokies go to the West Coast after suffering a demoralizing come from ahead loss at Miami.  The Cardinal are a live dog here, and that blowout loss to Clemson was a little phony (see ACC notes above), and may be attributed to making back to back east coast road trips.

Iowa (+19') at Ohio St. - Buckeyes have a trip to Eugene on deck, and the Hawkeyes represent their biggest test so far.  Still, if you stop Kaleb Johnson you stop Iowa's offense, and if Iowa is playing from behind, it's no bueno.  Think I'll pass on Iowa.

Indiana (-13') at Northwestern - The Hoosiers look like an automatic play-on option until proven otherwise.  Step in front of Kurtis Rourke and company at your peril.

Night games:

James Madison (-16') at UL MONROE - Train and I talked about this game in posts #26 and #27. The only concerning thing here is that Gardner-Webb game, won by the Dukes, 13-6 (???).  But they've been unstoppable the last couple weeks.  Not my favorite play but still on the list.

Utah St. (+27) at Boise St. - this is Boise's homecoming game and they're coming off a huge win over Wazzu.  This feels like a game where the Broncos are out in front at halftime, say something like 38-7, and then at some point Ashton Jeanty and a lot of the starters head to the bench and it winds up being something like 48-21.  Pass.

USC at Minnesota (+8) - The Trojans have trailed at the half in their last two games, 14-3 at Michigan and 21-10 against Wisconsin.  If they're able to play a complete game I don't think the Gophers can keep up.  But until they prove they CAN play a complete game I'm leaning Minny.  They contributed to their own demise last week at Michigan with a fumble and a blocked punt that put them in a 21-0 hole, before a 4th quarter rally fell just short.

Michigan at Washington (-2') - The more I think about this one I'm inclined to pass.  Wrong team MAY be favored.

UCF (+2') at Florida - I wasn't crazy about this lean to begin with.  A hard pass.

Duke (+9) at Georgia Tech - I just don't get this line.  But I do know the dog in this series is on a 8-0-1 ATS run.  I also know that's got nothing to do with THIS year, but the Blue Devils ARE undefeated at 5-0 (3-1 ATS), and have proven they can win the close ones.  They're on a high after rallying from a 20-0 deficit to beat arch rival North Carolina, 21-20, last week.  Even with the Yellow Jackets off their bye week, this game could go either way and the points seem to be a gift!

Kansas (+2') at Arizona St. - I liked it better at +3. The Jayhawks are 0-4 SU and ATS, but SHOULD be able to run all day here.  Of course they've been running well in each game they've lost too.  Kansas may be the better team here, but I'm not sure I wanna pay to find out. 

Miami FL at California (+10') - The Golden Bears are 11-2 ATS as a home dog of four points or more under Justin Wilcox, and they're off a bye.  In their last outing they gained 422 total yards but missed two field goals under 40 yards in a 14-9 loss at Florida St. The Hurricanes showed some chinks in their armor last week vs. Virginia Tech and now travel clear across the country for a 10:30 Eastern time start.  There's a lot to like about Cal here.