Week 5 observations and Week 6 ponderings

 Wow, where did September go?  October looms, and  the rubber is about to hit the road in conference play across the country.  Week 6 kicks off Thursday with a pair of G5 matchups.  

Sun Belt

James Madison (4-0) looks like they could run the table, and has to be considered a G5 playoff contender.  Saturday they crushed Ball St. 63-7, as QB Alonza Barnett III completed 20 of 28 passes for 280 yards and five TDs, while also rushing for 52 yards and a score.  This, after torching North Carolina for 388 yards on 22 of 34 passing, and accounting for a whopping SEVEN TDs, five through the air and two on the ground (99 yards rushing), last week.

Next up for the Dukes is a road trip to UL Monroe. The Warhawks scored a 13-9 upset win at Troy, despite allowing 201 yards rushing (4.5 YPR).  

The Trojans will host Texas St. Thursday night.  The Bobcats fell victim to an incredible comeback vs. Sam Houston (see C-USA notes), and will have to shake it off in a hurry, on the road again and on a short week.

QB Ben Wooldridge went 20 of 29 for 259 yards and three TDs as Louisiana won a 41-38 shootout at Wake Forest.  The Ragin' Cajuns (love that name!) will need to avoid a letdown when they go to Southern Miss next week.  The Golden Eagles have been noncompetitive, but will have had two weeks to prepare.

Despite only 21:48 of possession time, Old Dominion earned it's first win of the season, 30-27, over a decent Bowling Green team.  The Monarchs were outgained 410 yards to 333, but outrushed the Falcons 189 yards (5.3 YPR) to 96 (2.9).  ODU travels to Coastal Carolina next.

South Alabama was my only loser this past weekend, getting pasted at LSU.  The Jaguars now face their third opponent in a row on the road; at Arkansas St, with the Red Wolves off a bye, and with a significant rest advantage.

Georgia Southern rushed for 281 yards (5.9 YPR) and held Georgia St. to a scant 29 (1.9) in a 38-21 domination of their conference rival.  Both teams now enter their bye week.

C-USA

While frontrunner Liberty had an unexpected bye, thanks to Hurricane Helene (and many prayers go out for the folks who were caught in the storm's path), Sam Houston was the story of the day.  The Bearkats trailed 22-0 in the first quarter, 32-21 at the half and 39-21 early in the third quarter, but rallied all the way back for a 40-39 stunning upset win over Texas St. in Houston.  The Bearkats, who entered the game averaging a little over 238 yards a game rushing in their three wins, amassed 298 yards (5.2 YPR) on the ground and held the Bobcats to 91 (3.3).  QB Hunter Watson led the way with 105 yards, and made my biggest play of the month a winner!  Sam Houston is now 8-3-1 as a dog since joining the FBS, and now travels to UTEP on a short week.  The Miners had a bye.

Early leans so far:

TROY +14 over Texas St. on Thursday.  But I doubt I'll play it.

James Madison -16' over UL MONROE.  The Dukes look unstoppable right now.

SH ST is a great story and a great dog.  In this game its beware of the dog, but the dog is not SH ST. Its a line roll flip.  Careful to trust a favorite that is a dog team. 

@spottie2935

 Yeah, I'm not on em this week.  Huge rest advantage to the Miners.  

Big 12

This may not be the best conference, but it may be the most entertaining, and hardest to predict.  There are two undefeated teams left, and probably not who you'd expect.

BYU improved to 5-0 (4-0 ATS), as QB Jake Retzlaff had a big first half, passing for 180 yards and two TDs and running for another score, leading the Cougars to a 28-7 lead midway through the 2nd quarter, and they held on to beat Baylor, 34-28.  Safety Crew Wakley's int. at midfield with 59 tics left ended the Bears' rally as they tried to avoid their eighth straight conference home loss.  BYU now enters their bye week.

The hard luck Bears, overtime losers at Colorado last week, now head to Ames, IA to take on the conference's other unbeaten team, Iowa St. (4-0, 3-0 ATS). The Cyclones handed Houston their second straight shutout loss in a row, 20-0, holding the Cougars to 241 total yards and forcing two turnovers.  Abu Sama's 77 yard TD run with 5:39 left clinched the cover for Cyclone backers.

The anemic Cougars now head to TCU, which snapped their two game losing streak by thumping Kansas, 38-27, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.  Josh Hoover completed 28 of 37 for 356 yards and three TDs, and JP Richardson returned a punt 89 yards for the go ahead score, late in the 3rd quarter, to lead the Horned Frogs. The Jayhawks, who are essentially playing 12 road games while their stadium is being rebuilt, fall to 1-4 (0-4 ATS).  Another thing to remember going forward is the Frogs' inability to stop the run.  They gave up another 168 yards at 5.1 yards a carry despite the win.

Kansas St. rebounded from their disastrous loss in Provo last week with a dominant 42-20 win over Oklahoma St.  QB Avery Johnson threw for 259 yards and three TDs and ran for 60 yards and two more scores to lead the Wildcats, who ran all over the Cowboys for 300 yards (8.8 YPR).  Okie St. has disappointed on offense as RB Ollie Gordon still hasn't got untracked.

Arizona turned in a stellar defensive performance with two interceptions, eight pass breakups and seven tackles for loss, while stopping Utah four times on fourth down in a 23-10 road upset.  The Utes were again without QB Cam Rising.

Tahj Brooks ran for 172 yards and two scores to lead Texas Tech past Cincinnati, 44-41, as the Bearcats missed a 51 yard tying field goal as time ran out.  The Red Raiders rushed for 228 yards (6.2 YPR).

Colorado appears much improved after losing at Nebraska three weeks ago.  The Buffs throttled UCF, 48-21, on the road as Shedeur Sanders went 28 of 35 for 290 yards and three TDs, and Travis Hunter had nine receptions for 89 yards and a score and also had an interception on defense, one of four UCF turnovers. The Knights now head to Gainesville to face a desperate Florida team, who is off a bye.

Early leans as of now:

Kansas +3 over ARIZONA ST. - Hardluck Jayhawks are due aren't they?

FLORIDA +2' over Ucf - the leanest of leans.

MWC/PAC 2

This is looking like a two horse race for a possible G5 playoff berth.

No Matthew Sluka?  No problem for UNLV (4-0, 3-0 ATS).  Hajj-Malik Williams completed 13 of 16 passes for 182 yards and three TDs, two of those to Rocky White III, who also scored on a blocked punt, and Jai'den Thomas returned a kickoff 90 yards for another score in a 59-14 beatdown of Fresno St.  Williams also contributed 119 of the Rebels' 252 rushing yards (6.5 YPR) while the Bulldogs were held to a scant 30 yards on the ground and committed four turnovers.  UNLV now hosts Syracuse under the Friday night lights.

Meanwhile Boise St. handed Washington St. their first loss of the season as Ashton Jeanty exploded for 259 rushing yards on just 26 carries and scored four more TDs in a 45-24 romp.  The Bronco defense did a great job keeping Cougars QB John Mateer under wraps for the most part, sacking him eight times for 71 yards in losses.  After Wazzu scored to trail 24-17 in the 4th quarter, BSU put the game away with a 21-0 run to lead 45-17.  The Broncos are leading the nation in QB sacks.  Next up for Boise; a homecoming matchup with Utah St. coming off their bye week.

Early leans:

Utah St. +26' over BOISE ST. - Potential letdown spot for BSU, and Homecoming favs are usually a losing proposition.

BIG Ten

Kyle Monangai ran for 132 yards and a TD and Rutgers (4-0, 3-0 ATS) held off Washington, 21-18, in one of the phoniest finals of the weekend.  The Huskies outgained the Scarlet Knights 521 yards to 299, but missed three field goals, were just two for 12 on third down conversions, and had a ridiculous penalty which negated a blocked field goal attempt which led to a Rutgers TD and a 14-3 halftime lead.  UDub QB Will Rogers was 26 of 36 for 306 yards and two scores, and has yet to be picked off this season.  RB Jonah Coleman added 148 yards on 16 carries for the Huskies.

Indiana moved to 5-0 ((3-1 ATS), their best start since 1967. Kurtis Rourke completed 22 of 33 passes for a season high 359 yards and three TDs to lead the Hoosiers past Maryland, 42-28, despite committing their first four turnovers of the season!  Indy allowed 402 yards to the Terrapins, but only allowed one TD over the last 22 minutes as they broke a tie midway through the third quarter with a 21-0 run to put the game away.  Indiana is a legit Big Ten contender, and could very well be undefeated when they roll into Columbus in late November.

Which brings us to conference favorite Ohio St. which blew past Michigan St. 38-7 in dominating fashion to remain undefeated at 4-0.  The Spartans committed three more turnovers, two in the red zone, bringing their season total to 13 in five games.  They were also stuffed on a 4th and one at the Buckeye 20 on another possession.

Penn St. also remained unbeaten (4-0), and handed Illinois its' first loss of the season (4-1, 3-0-1 ATS), 21-7, in a physical, defensive slobberknocker.  Both teams scored on their first possessions and went into the locker room tied 7-7, but the Nittany Lions wore the Illini down in the second half and put the game away with a 56 yard seven minute TD drive late in the game.  Penn St. rushed for 239 yards (5.4 YPR) and their stifling defense held Illinois to 43 (1.3), had 13 tackles behind the line of scrimmage and sacked Luke Altmyer five times.

Oregon was the fifth team in the BIG to remain undefeated with a 34-13 rout of UCLA that wasn't as close as the score would indicate.  The Ducks outgained the Bruins 433 to 179, but leading 28-3 and driving late in the first half, Dillon Gabriel (280 passing yards, three TDs) made his only mistake of the day which turned into a 96 yard pick six to make it 28-10 at the half.

As for the rest, Michigan blew a 24-3 lead and held on to beat Minnesota, 27-24, despite being outgained by 55 yards.  The Wolverines continue to struggle in the passing game, and it may cost them this week at UW.

Nebraska broke a scoreless halftime tie, after three missed field goals (two were blocked), and exploded for 28 unanswered in a 28-10 rout of Purdue, a game in which the two teams combined for 24 penalties.

USC overcame a sloppy first half, trailing 21-10, but blew Wisconsin out of the Coliseum with a dominant 28-0 second half and a 38-21 win.  Miller Moss threw for 308 yards and three TDs as the Trojans outgained the Badgers by 184 yards and had possession for over 40 minutes.

Early leans:

OREGON -24 over Michigan St.

PENN ST. -27' over UCLA

Iowa +19' over OHIO ST.

Indiana -13' over NORTHWESTERN 

MINNESOTA +8' over USC

WASHINGTON -2 over Michigan 

ACC/Independents

There are three undefeated teams left in the conference, and none of them are who you might have expected.

One of those unlikely teams is Duke (5-0, 3-1 ATS), which rallied from 20-0 down to stun beleaguered North Carolina, 21-20, a week after the Tar Heels were blasted at home by James Madison.  Star Thomas rushed for 166 yards on 30 carries and a score to lead the Blue Devils, who head to Georgia Tech next.

The Tar Heels host undefeated Pittsburgh (4-0, 3-0 ATS) on Homecoming.  The Panthers recorded earlier comeback wins at Cincy and home against WVU, are playing with a lot of confidence and are off a bye.

Miami FL remained undefeated at 5-0 (3-1 ATS), but not before surviving a major scare from Virgina Tech.  Cam Ward threw for 343 yards and three TDs to rally the Hurricanes, who trailed by double digits on three different occasions, and had to survive a Hail Mary pass that was initially called a TD for the Hokies on the final play of the game.  A replay review reversed the call. The 'Canes dug themselves an early hole with three turnovers, and even though they outgained Va. Tech by 110 yards, they gave up 206 yards rushing (6.4 YPR) Both teams head for the West Coast next week.

Clemson is taking no prisoners since getting thumped by Georgia.  The Tigers broke open a 17-7 game at the half with a 23-0 run in the second half for their third straight blowout win, 40-14 over Stanford, which was on the east coast for the second week in a row. The final score was deceiving though as the Cardinal were only outgained by 44 yards and shredded the Tiger defense for 236 yards rushing (5.4 YPR), but three interceptions and three 4th down stops saved the day for the Tiger Paw.

SMU looks like they've righted their ship after a dominant 42-16 rout of Florida St. The Seminoles' offense has yet to crack 300 yards in any game this season, and is averaging less than 70 yards a game rushing.

QB Riley Leonard was 17 of 23 for 163 yards and two TDs and ran for 52 yards and another score to lead Notre Dame past Louisville, 31-24. The Irish were outgained by 127 yards but took advantage of the Cardinals' first three turnovers of the season and stopped them four times on fourth down, including a last minute defensive stand.

Keep an eye on UConn. The Huskies are playing good ball since laying an egg at Maryland on opening day, and demolished Buffalo 47-3 with 537 yards of offense.

Early leans:

UCONN -16' over Temple

STANFORD +9 over Virginia Tech 

Duke +8' over GEORGIA TECH

CALIFORNIA +10 over Miami Fl

Kansas +3

When ND plays a competent defense with run stopping ability they are gonna get crushed.  Leonard isn't beating anybody with his arm.  A solid portion of his yards passing is from the screen game.  When he is forced to consistent have attempts of 10+ or more yards the ND offense will sputter severely.  

@spottie2935

@bigred84

@ParlayPurd 

The Irish O-line has been a disaster with a lot of injuries.  They were fortunate to beat Louisville and will have their hands full with the service academies and USC. I see another loss or two on their horizon.

@Boisestateand8

 100% agree brother, great points!

Great depth of information to ponder over GL  on your plays @Boisestateand8

One of the best threads on this forum. 

SEC

Alabama 41, Georgia 34.  Game of the day.  We all saw what happened so no point rehashing it, but needless to say the next two months are gonna be mighty interesting as both teams have schedules loaded with landmines.  One of those landmines is Tennessee which just might be the team to beat. The Vols might be worth a futures bet for those who dabble in that sort of thing.

Kentucky scored the biggest upset of the day, taking down high powered Ole Miss, 20-17, and handing them their first loss. The Rebels had averaged 55 points a game against a weak schedule, but were held to season lows in nearly every statistical category, gaining just 353 yards, with seven tackles for loss, four sacks and only one third down conversion in ten tries.  They also had just 20:15 of possession time.  Next up for the Rebs is a tough road trip to South Carolina. The Gamecocks had a bye.

Texas A&M was outgained 379 yards to 297, but turned one of three Arkansas turnovers into a TD, which proved to be the difference in the Aggies' 21-17 victory.

Oklahoma was outgained 482 yards to 291, but beat Auburn, 27-21, thanks to Kip Lewis' 61 yard pick six.  The Sooners MAY have found their QB. Michael Hawkins Jr completed 10 of 15 passes for 161 yards.  Not great numbers, but better than anything Jackson Arnold put up. 

Early leans:

Missouri +2 over TEXAS A&M

Auburn +24' over GEORGIA 

@Macwestie1

Great praise coming from one of the legends on this forum.  Thank you and BOL this weekend! 

@CKP22

 Thank you kind sir!  BOL to you!  

[Quote: Originally Posted by CKP22]One of the best threads on this forum.[/Quote

]

This IS a must Read everyweek Now. .thx for all the facts AND observations 

Very awesome thread. Top 5 on this site for sure. 

Talk to me about your Mizzou lean. First road game for the Tigers, so I expect a sluggish start with a couple penalties etc. Cook has solid receivers, but hasn't been very accurate. Thats not gonna be good vs a decent Aggie D. Hard to see either team scoring more than 24..... Leaning heavily towards U48.5 or maybe just 1st H to avoid any late game or OT shenanigans.....

@TRAIN69

So far Cook has completed about 69% of his passes, and Mizzou has had two weeks to prepare for their first road game after a bye last week.  That extra prep time comes in handy when facing an opponent you don't see that often, and the last meeting between these two was three years ago.  Ultimately, I think the better team is getting a couple points. And thanks for the kind words.  BOL this week!

AAC

How 'bout those undefeated service academies!  Army rolled to another dominant win, 42-14 at Temple.  The Black Knights bulldozed their way to 417 yards rushing (7.3 YPR), and held the Owls to 219 total yards and sacked QB Evan Simon seven times.  

Navy kept pace, rolling over UAB, 41-18.  The Midshipmen had their usually strong ground game working (227 yards, 5.4 YPR), but now they're also a threat in the passing game.  QB Blake Horvath completed 9 of his 11 passes for 225 yards with a pair of TDs, and also contributed 84 yards rushing with a score.  Horvath is completing a little over 68% of his passes this season.

QB Darian Mensah went 18 of 22 for 330 yards and three TDs as Tulane jumped out to a 31-0 lead and went on to rout USF 44-10 in their conference opener.  The Green Wave will be a factor in the AAC.

And don't count out Memphis. The Tigers were solid but not spectacular as they rebounded from last week's lost at Navy with a 24-7 win over Middle Tennessee.

East Carolina was outyarded (is that a word?) 456 to 356 and outrushed 170 to 62 but still topped disappointing UTSA, 30-20.  The Roadrunners have been roadkill so far this season, and contributed to their own demise with three turnovers and 12 penalties.

And finally, QB Chandler Morris threw for 439 yards and five TDs as North Texas jumped out to 45-3 lead and went on to rout Tulsa 52-20.

Early leans:

Army -11' over TULSA

Navy -10 over AIR FORCE

And there you have it boys and girls.  I didn't cover the MAC because I can't make heads or tails out of that quagmire.  There used to be guy in this forum that specialized in that conference.  BOL to all.

@Boisestateand8 

Great points and breakdown! Appreciate the good read! 

@Boned860

enjoyed the read

@DakotaOutlaw