Week 10 Money

How S+P sees the game:

Oregon's offense vs. Florida State's defense

This is a matchup of strength vs. strength for the most part. There is one key advantage Oregon has - and that is the usual. Oregon has a 35 point advantage in running the ball. This is very close to what advantage Oregon had against UCLA. Unlike UCLA, however, FSU does not give a decided advantage on standard downs, meaning that early on it's likely Oregon would have trouble running. Oddly, the biggest advantage Oregon has is on passing downs - over 25 points. Given how good FSU's pass defense is, this implies that the Ducks would either need to run play action or run Marcus Mariota quite a bit.

Oregon's Defense vs Florida State's offense

Hoo boy.

This doesn't look good. Nope, not one bit.

Oregon has an absurd 55 point deficit when FSU passes. I don't even know how to relate that; this is close to what Oregon has had on offense vs. the likes of Colorado. They also have a 50 point differential on passing downs. Again, this says 'unstoppable'. If that wasn't enough, FSU is the most efficient on drives - meaning they get scores, don't turn the ball over, and don't get bad penalties. All of this says that FSU is going to pass, pass, and pass some more. And Oregon will just watch. The good news, if you could call it that, is that FSU would not do exceedingly awesomely at running the ball; they only have a 16 point differential in their favor there. So if we can simply brainwash Jameis Winston to always hand off or run a lot of quarterback draws, Oregon might be in it. Maybe.

This must be how other fans feel when they see the absurd offensive advantage Oregon has over them.

How FEI sees the game:

Oregon's offense vs Florida State's defense

The biggest advantage Oregon has in raw numbers is on value drives and available yards. While FSU has so far done a good job holding their opponents' to shorter plays, they've not done a great job stopping teams early. I would expect Oregon to get at least some field position out of any drive they have, with the occasional big play that scores. The methodical values don't really matter; Oregon hasn't shown an inability to do them so much as a desire to avoid them at all costs and score as fast as possible. Once again, Oregon had zero drives that were 10 or more plays.

Oregon's defense vs. Florida State's offense

In raw values it doesn't get much closer than this: #2 vs. #2. Florida State is in many ways a mirror thematically of Oregon, and it shows up here; they're more explosive than Oregon, somewhat more likely to get a longer drive, and are excellent all around. Florida State doesn't have a ton of methodical drives because they simply score too fast, just like Oregon. Oregon is excellent at everything but especially so at stopping long drives and value drives, but only great at explosive drives; I would expect FSU scoring plays to largely be big ones.

Yes, if you're playing along I'm predicting both teams to score with big plays. This would be one hell of a fun game to watch. Think Oregon-Wisconsin Rose Bowl for how I'd expect it to play out.

Wahoo,

Got any info on Texas flooding - affecting any games from texas, to a&m, to Ttech including stadiums, players, moral, etc.?

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

doesn't matter how many people are there, the fact is that they have the most talent, my statement wasn't misleading at all

bigger is more, they have more

I never said per capita

that's like saying Idaho doesn't have as much talent as California because they are smaller, I never gave a reason why, I just stated the fact

You're gonna need to omit logic if you wanna squabble with these loons.

Hey Wahoo,

Took Oregon St -6 tonight (small). I know I got a horrible line but I don't think it matters when USC trots out 50 players out there every game and they suck on the road. \

The board looks tough this week. Might lay low. Books usually kill it in November.