Week 1 Actual Lines Given To The Casinos

completely 100% wrong and WAY OFF on:

South Carolina -4.5 @ Vandy  (will be more like 7.5)

@ UCONN -28 over Mass  (will be more like 20)

Tennessee PK over NC State  (will be more like Tenn -6.5)

@ Mich St -2 over Boise (will be more like Mich St -8)

ND  -21  over Navy, in Dublin Ireland  (will be more like ND -14.5)


but nice try,

you are so full of shit it's not even funny,

you were completely wrong about the lines being available at the Vegas books on July 29, so now you're trying to cover your ass,

absolutely hilarious

Call me crazy, but there's some sort of legitimacy to this, as a lot of the obscure games are actually pretty damn close.  I disagree with a handful of them, but for the most part, certainly not the worst lines I've ever seen...

And those of you who are basing the "mistakes" on what 5Dimes and BetOnline have put out, PLEASE save yourself the embarrassment...while the numbers might not end up being what's posted here, the numbers at those two places should be taken with a grain of salt as there's not a single sharp bettor who is bothering to waste their time with $250-500 limits.

Linde uhh LVH and Golden Nugget have MSU -7.5 and -7

-2 is 1000% guaranteed to not be in within 3 points of the closer

Intuitively, statistically just not close

As I said, not all of these numbers are spot on.  But, if you look back historically, you'll see that a lot of early GOY lines (even for Week 1 games) don't always end up being spot on.  A lot of bigger bettors don't tip their hand until limits are higher and the game is closer.

Nicky,

First off, thank you for posting your info. I live here in Vegas as well, and know exactly what your talking about. Very usefull information. Thank you for taking the time to post. Will you have this information available for every week of the season?

I agree.I think It's important to remember that when the Golden
Nugget and LVH GOY numbers went up 5 Dimes changed their
lines to match.

Think of it this way.If half of you think a number is too low and
half of you think it is too high,The bookmaker did his job.It's an
art ,not a science,and 30% of the time,the 'dog wins the game
outright.While they may not get them all right,they get enough
of them right to stay in business every year,and keep us all
coming back for more.

Wow, some of you guys are such pieces of shit...did i even need to post this?  No.  Have i ever said i'm a "sharp" or want people to follow my thoughts or picks? No.  Did i say the casinos will post their lines on 7/29, yes BUT i also said if they don't i'll be sure to post on here so everyone can get a heads start. 

What part of these are line suggestions that all the major casinos pay for before they post their actual lines dont you get?!?  How do you know these lines are way off because they are not what you thought they would be?  Do you get paid to professionally handicap cfb games for casinos?  If every line was dead on how do you think the casino could sucker people into betting certain games? 

Some of you people are such pieces of trash, with none whatsoever actual insight into sports that when some very valuable inside info is right in front of you, you are so fuckin stupid to even realize it...Vegas oddsmakers suggest the USC/Vandy game should be -4.5 that no one will know about because the casinos will probably open at -7, the public will be all over USC at -7 probably driving it to 9 or 10, you would never have known that Vegas actually thinks this game is gonna be close without looking at this info you dumb fucks

I'm with ya nickey.Thanks for making the effort.

Nicky,

Don't get to worked up bro. There are always going to be haters on sites like this. For the people in here that "get it" and understand what your talking about, a big thank you from all of us!!! Keep up the good work dude, and please don't think it's un appreciated. Just read right past the haters. Let them be.

no offense... but these lines aren't really providing any information... some of these lines are off by nearly a TD from where the line will actually open...

not sure where you got this information, but it is far too unreliable for anybody to use...



we just gotta keep waiting...

Based on past history,I believe they will post the lines here in
Las Vegas this Friday,8/3.
In 2011 they were posted on 8/6.
In 2010 they were posted on 8/5.
We're getting close.

here are the lines from week 1 2011 from this same company that sent me these lines today but you can see these are from the actual week and show the line movement from where it was sent to, from it opened it and where it closed at..this also shows what the final score was...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhG95n-uPRySdFg0bklld293RjZqYTRvVnFoYnJPVHc#gid=0

@wiseguy of course most likely they will post soon, they just received their lines from their consultants today...

you doubters keep using your guessing info and i'll stick with useful/accurate info and we can compare our tickets starting next month because i will be posting mine and they are not for $100 bucks like im sure you degenerates do.

to the supporters, thanks, i'm done addressing these morons, i'll post the info i receive each week and hopefully we can work together to see where the value bets are each week

@apcolypse--so every week during football season every game ends right around the line that vegas shows the public??? of course not, thats why some of these line SUGGESTIONS are different from what you see from some crap sites, i'm done defending my post, dont use it because you obviously dont know what this thread intentions are..

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhG95n-uPRySdFg0bklld293RjZqYTRvVnFoYnJPVHc

sorry, i posted again and made this avail to anyone to see, just click link

nickeydyme-i been following fb lines for 50yrs your right you had o-st at 20 will open at 24 you had cal at 10 will open at 11 ore at 30 open at 33- only a few i can remember dont mind them they are the ones the casinos love---thanks

dude, chill!  you made it sound like you were giving out information that could be used to prepare for what lines will come out, when lines finally come out in Vegas... but what you are really posting is lines that will never come out, but you are suggesting that these "suggested lines" are something we can use to beat the books, because they are supposedly "better" than the lines actually posted...

all i am saying is, beware!  the books are pretty fucking sharp, too, when they post their lines... the "suggestors" may be more accurate than the books on any given year, but they are gonna be less accurate on just as many...

if you want to use it as some kind of tout service, then go ahead... but i would tread lightly... when it's all said and done, the sharpest bettors don't have other do their capping for them...

 

The USC/Vandy game is a great example...

Every square out there (and I am one of them) that looks at this game says to themselves, "Vandy is awful and Steve Spurrier's 'cocks led by Lattimore will destroy."  The fact is Vandy is much better than recent history and can make it a close game at home.  4.5 looks about right to me, but if this is the number I will pass. 

The actual number will be inflated because of public perception.  The point of the spread is to split the action, not to predict the margin of victory

To all of you who think these are wrong you obviously do not understand how the lines are made in Vegas.

There are actually a couple of companies that make the lines on the games and then give them to the sportsbooks each week and then the sportsbooks adjust some of the lines based on what they think is public perception. So the premise of this thread is correct. Are these the lines the company released to Vegas? They very well could be.

Some of you need to do more homework on how lines are made. Obviously some of these games already had lines out on them because they were "games of the year" but Vegas still wants the lines from these companies on all of the games and then they make adjustments from there.

Some of the lines in this thread will change when they open up because Vegas thinks the public perception is different than what this company gives them but a lot of them will be the same. It can be used for a handicapping tool.

I don't see anywhere where the original poster claimed it to be anything other than exactly what it is. Some of you need to learn to read better or get a new hobby.

I saw SC at (-7) on Bookmaker today..

Thanks for the post...Don't let bashers get to you, this is very useful in my opinion.

I have a system/procedure for predicting what the line should be, when the line is way off from the actual line, it warrants a further look and possible wager, this does that. 

Haters gonna Hate, just keep posting, look forward to your info throughout the year

appreciate you guys sticking up for me, such animals on here haha...

anyways, enough of the negativity, the whole reason i post is to contribute my 1% to the big picture that through all of our combined experience and knowledge we can win some money, nothing more...

i will def. keep these coming, i'm very interested to see the actual public lines that should be out in a week hopefully and then the fun begins.