Ventures Bowl Deep Dive: No stone left untrned analysis and pick

Alll the stars and angles line up for this one. 

The Blue Hens are making history tonight. This is their first ever FBS bowl game after transitioning up from the FCS level, and they got here largely on the arm of quarterback Nick Minicucci. This kid has been absolutely electric this season, throwing for 3,507 yards with 22 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions. His passer rating sits at 135.6, and he has thrown for over 300 yards in four of his last five games.

What makes Minicucci truly dangerous is that he can also hurt you with his legs. He has rushed for 231 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground, giving him 32 total touchdowns on the year. When you watch Delaware, you see a guy who is comfortable extending plays and then finishing drives near the goal line with his legs. That combination is tough to defend.

Delaware averaged 302.2 passing yards per game this season, ranking sixth nationally and leading Conference USA. Their passing game is built around two excellent receivers in Sean Wilson and Kyre Duplessis. Wilson finished the regular season with 60 catches for 796 yards, ranking third in CUSA in receiving yards. Duplessis was right behind him with 55 catches for 755 yards and has been particularly good in big moments. These two create real problems for opposing secondaries because you cannot just bracket one and leave the other in single coverage.

The Blue Hens also have Jake Thaw with 31 catches for 359 yards and Ja'Carree Kelly contributing as well. This is a spread offense that wants to attack vertically and take shots down the field whenever they see single coverage. Louisiana coach Michael Desormeaux acknowledged this during the week, saying his team will need to play with excellent eye discipline in the secondary because Delaware throws it more than any team the Cajuns have faced this year.

The Ragin Cajuns are the polar opposite of Delaware schematically. Louisiana ranks 29th nationally in rushing offense, averaging 189.8 yards per game on the ground. They want to control the clock, shorten the game, and keep Minicucci standing on the sideline watching.

The running game is powered by Bill Davis and Zylan Perry, who form one of the better one two punches in the Group of Five. Davis has rushed for 743 yards with 6 touchdowns this season, while Perry has added 664 yards and 8 scores. Together they have combined for over 1,400 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.

Then there is quarterback Lunch Winfield, who adds another dimension to this ground attack. Winfield has rushed for 627 yards and 9 touchdowns on the season. He is not going to beat you throwing the ball, as evidenced by his modest 1,324 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. But when you stack the box to stop Davis and Perry, Winfield can pull it and pick up chunk yardage with his legs. He showed what he is capable of in that wild 54 to 51 double overtime win over Marshall earlier this season, when he came off the bench to account for five touchdowns.

Louisiana started this season 2 and 6 and looked like they might miss a bowl for the first time since 2017. But they rattled off four straight wins to close the regular season, including victories over Texas State and Arkansas State. That momentum could be meaningful tonight.

Both Defenses Have Struggled

Here is where things get interesting from a total perspective. Neither defense has been particularly good this season.

Delaware allows 32.5 points per game, ranking 120th nationally. They give up 164.3 rushing yards per game and 246.8 passing yards per game. In November, opposing teams averaged 4.92 yards per carry against the Blue Hens and scored 13 rushing touchdowns. That is a significant concern against Louisiana's three headed rushing attack.

Louisiana's defense is not much better, allowing 30 points per game for a ranking of 104th nationally. They give up 189.1 rushing yards and 227.8 passing yards per contest. Against the pass, Louisiana ranks 99th nationally in defensive success rate. Minicucci should have opportunities to shred this secondary.

On the positive side, both teams have solid linebacker play. Louisiana's Jaden Dugger racked up 118 tackles this season, third most in the Sun Belt. Delaware's Gavin Moul posted over 100 tackles and has been one of the top tacklers in Conference USA. Both will be critical in trying to slow down mobile quarterbacks tonight.

This game means something to both programs, which is not always the case in lower tier bowls.

For Delaware, this is their first bowl appearance ever. The Blue Hens won national championships at the FCS level and made the FCS playoffs multiple times in recent years, but playing in an FBS bowl game is a different kind of validation. Coach Ryan Carty has this program pointed in the right direction, and a win tonight would cap a successful transition season.

For Louisiana, this is about redemption. The Ragin Cajuns are on a three game bowl losing streak under coach Michael Desormeaux, including a brutal 34 to 3 loss to TCU in last year's New Mexico Bowl. Desormeaux made it clear during the week that he wants to get that taste out of his mouth. This is also their eighth straight bowl appearance, a streak that represents nearly a decade of sustained success for the program.

Breaking Down the Matchup

The key question tonight is whether Louisiana can control the tempo with their ground game. If Davis, Perry, and Winfield are piling up yards on the ground and eating clock, the Cajuns can keep this low scoring and limit Minicucci's opportunities. Louisiana's offense thrives in the 20s and low 30s scoring wise.

But if Delaware can force negative plays and get Louisiana behind schedule, this becomes a shootout. The Ragin Cajuns do not have the passing game to come from behind against a team that scores 30 plus. Winfield's arm is not going to win this game for them.

Delaware's path to victory is straightforward. Hit some early passes, build a lead, and force Louisiana to abandon the run. If the Blue Hens can get ahead by two scores in the first half, the Cajuns are in trouble.

Delaware ranks sixth nationally in passing yards per game at 302.2. Louisiana ranks 122nd with just 156.2 passing yards per game. That disparity is enormous.

Louisiana has rushed for over 189 yards per game this season. Delaware has allowed 164.3 rushing yards per game. Something has to give.

Eight of Louisiana's 12 games this season have gone over the total, including five of six away from home. The Ragin Cajuns' last five games have all hit the over.

Delaware went 6 for 12 on the over this season, but their games against quality opponents tended to be higher scoring affairs.

Nick Minicucci has thrown for at least 270 yards in six games this season and topped 300 yards four times in his last five outings.

Injury and Roster Notes

A few important items to monitor heading into kickoff. Louisiana quarterback Lunch Winfield suffered a groin injury in the season finale against ULM and had to be replaced by Walker Howard. Coach Desormeaux has said he feels confident Winfield will be able to go, though his mobility may be somewhat limited. Howard could see some snaps as well.

On the offensive line, Louisiana will be without starting left tackle Bryant Williams, who left the program before the bowl game. Redshirt freshman Ryder Bentley will get the start in his place. That's a significant blow against a Delaware defense that has been aggressive getting into the backfield this season.

On a positive note for Louisiana, safety Tyree Skipper has been reinstated from his suspension and will play tonight. He was suspended after an altercation during the Texas State game and missed the final stretch of the regular season.

Louisiana opened as a 3.5 point favorite and has been bet down to 2.5 to 3 at most books. The total opened at 58.5 and has climbed to 61.5 or 62.5 depending on where you look. ESPN's FPI projects Louisiana to win by 2.8 points with a 61 percent probability.

I think this game comes down to whether Delaware can handle the depth disadvantage that comes with being an FCS to FBS transition team. The Blue Hens have shown some wear in November, and Louisiana's rushing attack is designed to grind teams down in the second half.

That said, Minicucci is the best player on the field tonight, and Delaware's passing attack is significantly more explosive than anything Louisiana can counter with. If the Blue Hens can stay within striking distance through three quarters, their quarterback gives them a chance to win it late.

The total feels like the sharper play here. Both defenses have been permissive all season, and neither team has shown the ability to consistently stop their opponent's strength. Louisiana wants to run and Delaware wants to pass, but neither can really stop the other from doing what they want to do. Eight of Louisiana's last 12 games went over, and this matchup has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.

Louisiana probably has the edge in a close game because of their ability to control clock and their experience in these situations. But Delaware's ceiling is higher if Minicucci gets hot. This should be an entertaining one either way.

Gimme Delaware ML  (MAX BET HAMMER)