Posted:
#51
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Tuesday Bowling ....WV vs NC St and Mizzou vs Iowa
Posted:
#53
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Thought you would say that. What a shame. I know how good you are and that winning money is the most important thing to you, but some might read your thread and have the misperception that you are an attention seeking person who posts unrealistic lines that nobody can bet simply so that you can say on covers that you are a winner. But those people would be mistaken!!
BTW - how does buying points work out for you in the long run? Seems like it can be a VERY PROFITABLE strategy!! Buying points seems to be a GREAT way to maximize your longterm profitability, how do you feel?
Vanzack wins this debate hands down 
buying the amount of points you buy will always be a losing proposition over the long haul - it's great that you have a winning record this year
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Posted:
#54
When you buy points there are 3 possible outcomes:
1. Your team covers regardless
2. Your team doesn't cover regardless
3. Your team covers because you bought the half point
In the first instance, it doesn't matter how much you paid because you won.
In the second instance, you lose more because you paid for the extra half point.
In the third instance, you actually profit significantly from buying the half point.
The issue becomes, how often do you win BECAUSE of the half point? And does the amount of money you win because of the half point those few times outweigh the extra money lost when buying the half point and losing regardless?
There is a way of figuring this out mathematically, but I don't have to do that to know that it is a losing proposition. I'm sure someone like vanzack has already calculated this and knows it to be true.
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Posted:
#55
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Well, like I said, you certainly know when to buy to get the best line available, and then some!
Maybe you could post the last time you posted a football side where you didnt get the best line. ****That is a trick question, I bet this has never happened to you!!!
Keep up the good work train, and thanks for the lesson on getting lines. Maybe you can still explain the longterm strategy of buying points, and when to do it, and how laying -130 can be profitable longterm (for all the haterzzz that would say you are overpaying for buying points).
Thanks
As I've mentioned, I usually wait for the juice to be reduced to -105 or +100 before I buy the hook. I've never bought a "point". So, it only needs to come into play 1/11 times to be even. It really doesnt matter though, as I usually play the ml for a portion of my spread wager (as I note).
So, I'm 10-4 in bowl games. -110, -120 or -130 or -150 it is still + money.
Now if I was 3-2 like yourself, the juice would matter. I hope I never have to be in your situation. Also, I notice you dont flat bet, which is another no no for money management.
Maybe you should focus on your picks more and less on how much profit I'm making.
I take all this with a grain of salt because you are the one who bet $1000 on the UCLA ml vs Oregon because it had "value", but buying the hook is a waste of money.....
Good luck with your "stat model" ....
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Posted:
#63
Quote Originally Posted by ghayes420:
Concur with you on Mizzou. However the D Line of Iowa scares me.
I am teasing Mizzou to +4.
Good luck to us both and nice record this bowl season!
Concur with you on Mizzou. However the D Line of Iowa scares me.
I am teasing Mizzou to +4.
Good luck to us both and nice record this bowl season!
Ghayes!!! Whats up bro?? 
I agree, the Iowa D line is their strength. I think the Mizzou short passing game with Moe and crew should keep the linebackers busy and Gabbert off his back...
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Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
As I've mentioned, I usually wait for the juice to be reduced to -105 or +100 before I buy the hook. I've never bought a "point". So, it only needs to come into play 1/11 times to be even. It really doesnt matter though, as I usually play the ml for a portion of my spread wager (as I note).
So, I'm 10-4 in bowl games. -110, -120 or -130 or -150 it is still + money.
Now if I was 3-2 like yourself, the juice would matter. I hope I never have to be in your situation. Also, I notice you dont flat bet, which is another no no for money management.
Maybe you should focus on your picks more and less on how much profit I'm making.
I take all this with a grain of salt because you are the one who bet $1000 on the UCLA ml vs Oregon because it had "value", but buying the hook is a waste of money.....
Good luck with your "stat model" ....
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Posted:
#68
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Well, like I said, you certainly know when to buy to get the best line available, and then some!
Maybe you could post the last time you posted a football side where you didnt get the best line. ****That is a trick question, I bet this has never happened to you!!!
Keep up the good work train, and thanks for the lesson on getting lines. Maybe you can still explain the longterm strategy of buying points, and when to do it, and how laying -130 can be profitable longterm (for all the haterzzz that would say you are overpaying for buying points).
Thanks
Tulsa, Toledo, the LVille/Smiss total, Kansas City, Pitt/Car total, Uconn/Pitt total....just off the top of my head within the past few days....just another losing bet from you....no big deal....you'll probably be right next time to give you your .500 average
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Posted:
#72
Quote Originally Posted by willywagtail:
Wow, train you have a stalker in coach vanzack.
Wow, train you have a stalker in coach vanzack.
Yep. He doesnt like people winning more than him (which isnt difficult). He cant understand how I get lines anybody can get. Its fun though. I keep raking it in and he keeps talking
Hes a smart dude, but misguided
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